Looking at 2017 schedule

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fippled

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Will the Gophers start the season 8-0?

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fippled said:
Will the Gophers start the season 8-0?

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If the stars align they could be 7-0 going into Iowa City. Thats the rose colored glasses outlook of mine.
 

Buffalo,@Oregon St,Mid Tn State,

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Maryland,@Purdue, Mich St,Illinois, @ Iowa

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I see 8 wins as the expected outcome for next year.

I think we win (we should be favored): Buffalo, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee State in OOC,
Then we should win: Maryland, Purdue, Illinois

I give us a 50/50 with: Michigan State and NW

I think we win at least one from: Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska

I am chalking up Michigan as unlikely.

This projects out to: 8 wins. Less than 8 and we underperformed more and TC earned his money.
 


I'd say toss-ups are @ Oregon State (they played us tough this year, we'll be breaking in a new QB, and they showed promise as the season went on), vs MSU, @ Northwestern, vs Nebraska.

Likely losses @ Iowa, @ Michigan, vs Wisconsin.

Likely wins vs Buffalo, vs MTSU, vs Maryland, @ Purdue, vs Illinois.

We better hope for at least a split in the tossup games or it's going to get ugly. A loss at Oregon State would derail things right away.

I'll say 7-5 based on the difficulty of the schedule, but like this year they could start 6-1 and end the season 7-5.
 

Gopher07 said:
I'd say toss-ups are @ Oregon State (they played us tough this year, we'll be breaking in a new QB, and they showed promise as the season went on), vs MSU, @ Northwestern, vs Nebraska.

Likely losses @ Iowa, @ Michigan, vs Wisconsin.

Likely wins vs Buffalo, vs MTSU, vs Maryland, @ Purdue, vs Illinois.

We better hope for at least a split in the tossup games or it's going to get ugly. A loss at Oregon State would derail things right away.

I'll say 7-5 based on the difficulty of the schedule, but like this year they could start 6-1 and end the season 7-5.
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Yes I agree that the game in Corvallis will be a tough early test. At least it is the second game so the new offense and QB will hopefully have a little experience and a taste of success.
 

Gopher07 said:
I'd say toss-ups are @ Oregon State (they played us tough this year, we'll be breaking in a new QB, and they showed promise as the season went on), vs MSU, @ Northwestern, vs Nebraska.

Likely losses @ Iowa, @ Michigan, vs Wisconsin.

Likely wins vs Buffalo, vs MTSU, vs Maryland, @ Purdue, vs Illinois.

We better hope for at least a split in the tossup games or it's going to get ugly. A loss at Oregon State would derail things right away.

I'll say 7-5 based on the difficulty of the schedule, but like this year they could start 6-1 and end the season 7-5.
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There is no way Neb is a toss up. MSU maybe but given what we know of the two teams it should probably be moved to likely loss along with Neb. It is important we acknowledge that Neb is a way better team than us. We can't keep going into off-seasons thinking we're at that level. It's wishful thinking and it retards the conversation we need to have about the actual state of the program.

Oh god I hope I can be wrong about Claeys. Seeing someone new at QB will be refreshing, regardless of whether we immediately get more out of the position.

I agree with you that we'll likely start the season fast, and then tailspin into a low-tier bowl game by losing our marquee matchups. The coaching conversation will happen again next year, which is why the change should have been made this year.
 

SamSquatch said:
There is no way Neb is a toss up. MSU maybe but given what we know of the two teams it should probably be moved to likely loss along with Neb. It is important we acknowledge that Neb is a way better team than us. We can't keep going into off-seasons thinking we're at that level. It's wishful thinking and it retards the conversation we need to have about the actual state of the program.
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If the game were at Nebraska I'd agree, but we're 2-2 in our last four against them and it was what I'd call a tossup matchup this year (within 7 points by computer measures and final score).
 



It amazes me that folks who supposedly follow the gophers .... aren't the least bit shy about picking wins so far ahead of time.
 

This year our three toughest games (PSU, NE & WI) were all away, and we were competitive in each. Next year we have those games at home (MSU for PSU). Hopefully we can pick up a couple home wins.
 

Oregon St got better as the year went on, has a very good coaching staff, and will be jacked up playing at home. I put OSU as a slight favorite. Maryland will be improved and will have an excellent recruiting class, but we'll be playing at home which should help. I won't believe it if Purdue nabs Fleck, but if they do that's an instant improvement.

At any rate, it's a long way off. Will be interesting how we perform in the bowl game. I see 7-5 next year at best, 6-6 or 5-7 most likely.


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Gopher07 said:
If the game were at Nebraska I'd agree, but we're 2-2 in our last four against them and it was what I'd call a tossup matchup this year (within 7 points by computer measures and final score).
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Yes and Nebraska is losing a difference maker (at least against the Gophers) in Tommy Armstrong.
 



SamSquatch said:
It is important we acknowledge that Neb is a way better team than us.
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Was it the 62-3 loss to Ohio State that sold you on Nebraska? The 30 point loss to Iowa? Was it beating Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern by a smaller margin than the Gophers beat them by? Yep, way better.
 

QB's of opponents next year. Many teams will be young and/or going through change.

Oregon State, young
Maryland, young
Purdue, 4th year, but new coach and likely system coming in.
Michigan State, played poorly this year
Illinois, young
Iowa, young little experience
Michigan, Speight will be a Senior
Nebraska, young no experience
Northwestern, 4th Year
Wisconsin, Hornibrook 3rd year

8 win minimum should be the expectation every year. We've done it 3 of the last 4 years and this staff seems to be good enough to maintain at this point.

We should be favored in every home game, but Wisconsin. 6-1
Road includes: Iowa, Oregon St., Michigan, Purdue, & Northwestern.

Favored at Purdue and underdog at rest. Vegas likely has us 7 win season.

Based on this I think at worst we will be 7-5 and 9-3 best case.
 

Maximus said:
Was it the 62-3 loss to Ohio State that sold you on Nebraska? The 30 point loss to Iowa? Was it beating Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern by a smaller margin than the Gophers beat them by? Yep, way better.
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Hahaha. It's important to acknowledge that SamSq is talking out of his keister.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
QB's of opponents next year. Many teams will be young and/or going through change.

Oregon State, young
Maryland, young
Purdue, 4th year, but new coach and likely system coming in.
Michigan State, played poorly this year
Illinois, young
Iowa, young little experience
Michigan, Speight will be a Senior
Nebraska, young no experience
Northwestern, 4th Year
Wisconsin, Hornibrook 3rd year

8 win minimum should be the expectation every year. We've done it 3 of the last 4 years and this staff seems to be good enough to maintain at this point.

We should be favored in every home game, but Wisconsin. 6-1
Road includes: Iowa, Oregon St., Michigan, Purdue, & Northwestern.

Favored at Purdue and underdog at rest. Vegas likely has us 7 win season.

Based on this I think at worst we will be 7-5 and 9-3 best case.
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We should be favored vs Nebraska, Michigan St?
 

Returning Starters on OL in 2017

Wisconsin 5
Iowa 5
Maryland 4
Minnesota 4
Nebraska 4
Northwestern 4
Purdue 2
Michigan 2
Illinois 2
Michigan St. 2
Oregon St. 2
 

Nebraska is losing alot of skilled position players on offense. Qb, RB, 3 contributing WR's, TE, and center. Also some big play makers on defense, however their defense does look fairly young so I think they will be fine there for a while.

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Returning Starters on Defense in 2017

Wisconsin 8 from 2016 #3 total Defense in Big Ten
Iowa 7 from #7
Maryland 10 from #12
Minnesota 6 from #6
Nebraska 7 from #5
Northwestern 10 from #10
Purdue 8 from #13
Michigan 0 if Peppers goes pro
Illinois 6 from #11
Michigan St. 8 from #8
Oregon St. 8
 

MaxyJR1 said:
Returning Starters on Defense in 2017

Wisconsin 8 from 2016 #3 total Defense in Big Ten
Iowa 7 from #7
Maryland 10 from #12
Minnesota 6 from #6
Nebraska 7 from #5
Northwestern 10 from #10
Purdue 8 from #13
Michigan 0 if Peppers goes pro
Illinois 6 from #11
Michigan St. 8 from #8
Oregon St. 8
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Do these really mean anything considering that each team is pulling various from levels of talent?

In some cases a dude 3rd down on a Michigan depth chart could eclipse a 4 year starter in MN....
 

Returning Starters on Offense in 2017

Wisconsin 9
Iowa 9
Maryland 6
Minnesota 8
Nebraska 7
Northwestern 9
Purdue 5
Michigan 4
Illinois 5
Michigan St. 4
Oregon St. 8
 

SamSquatch said:
There is no way Neb is a toss up. MSU maybe but given what we know of the two teams it should probably be moved to likely loss along with Neb. It is important we acknowledge that Neb is a way better team than us. We can't keep going into off-seasons thinking we're at that level. It's wishful thinking and it retards the conversation we need to have about the actual state of the program.

Oh god I hope I can be wrong about Claeys. Seeing someone new at QB will be refreshing, regardless of whether we immediately get more out of the position.

I agree with you that we'll likely start the season fast, and then tailspin into a low-tier bowl game by losing our marquee matchups. The coaching conversation will happen again next year, which is why the change should have been made this year.
Click to expand...

Whatever. Why are you so full of Cornhusker?
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Do these really mean anything considering that each team is pulling various from levels of talent?

In some cases a dude 3rd down on a Michigan depth chart could eclipse a 4 year starter in MN....
Click to expand...

Simply data that is part of the equation, so absolutely mean something.

Harbaugh won with without his players. He's a great coach, we'll see if they take a step back with his players next year. They'll be good, but will they be top 4 good?

Wisconsin returns a ton of players, they will be a top 5 team in the preseason polls because of it. That will add pressure they have not had before. How will they respond?

Outside of Michigan, Minnesota and everyone we play returns roughly 12-18 total starters. That likely means a lot of competitive games again in 2017. Meaning 7 wins as a starting point.

I didn't look, but MN also returns K, P, and LS on special teams. That's big as well.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
Simply data that is part of the equation, so absolutely mean something.

Harbaugh won with without his players. He's a great coach, we'll see if they take a step back with his players next year. They'll be good, but will they be top 4 good?

Wisconsin returns a ton of players, they will be a top 5 team in the preseason polls because of it. That will add pressure they have not had before. How will they respond?

Outside of Michigan, Minnesota and everyone we play returns roughly 12-18 total starters. That likely means a lot of competitive games again in 2017. Meaning 7 wins as a starting point.

I didn't look, but MN also returns K, P, and LS on special teams. That's big as well.
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Does it matter if Michigan is top 4 good if we still get beat by them?
 

Zeppelin Gopher said:
Hahaha. It's important to acknowledge that SamSq is talking out of his keister.
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Well that's like, your opinion man.

Forget margin of victory. The hubris it takes to compare the success and wins Neb has had this season and the recent past to what the Gophers are is absurd. We are not equals. Saying it on this forum certainly doesn't make it true. To say that our football programs should be considered equals is just outlandish. They also control the head-to-head and are more likely to have near-term future success.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. There isn't a legitimate argument to make that says we're currently, or soon likely to be, better than Neb.

There are people on this site that want the best for the Gophs. That accept the downs with the ups, and acknowledge them both. Being unwilling to have honest conversations about the state of the program is what keeps it in a perpetual state of mediocrity.
 

SamSquatch said:
Well that's like, your opinion man.

Forget margin of victory. The hubris it takes to compare the success and wins Neb has had this season and the recent past to what the Gophers are is absurd. We are not equals. Saying it on this forum certainly doesn't make it true. To say that our football programs should be considered equals is just outlandish. They also control the head-to-head and are more likely to have near-term future success.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. There isn't a legitimate argument to make that says we're currently, or soon likely to be, better than Neb.

There are people on this site that want the best for the Gophs. That accept the downs with the ups, and acknowledge them both. Being unwilling to have honest conversations about the state of the program is what keeps it in a perpetual state of mediocrity.
Click to expand...

That was a rambling post befitting of Jeffrey Lebowski.

You made a blanket statement about acknowledging the Huskers "are way better than MN". There is very little recent evidence to back that up. We aren't talking about past success, the size of their fan base, etc. Based on the sample size of the past few seasons, there is every reason to believe we can compete with/have a solid chance to beat Nebraska next season.
 

SamSquatch said:
Well that's like, your opinion man.

Forget margin of victory. The hubris it takes to compare the success and wins Neb has had this season and the recent past to what the Gophers are is absurd. We are not equals. Saying it on this forum certainly doesn't make it true. To say that over the past decade we've been equals is just outlandish. They also control the head-to-head and are more likely to have near-term future success.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. There isn't a legitimate argument to make that says we're currently, or soon likely to be, better than Neb.

There are people on this site that want the best for the Gophs. That accept the downs with the ups, and acknowledge them both. Being unwilling to have honest conversations about the state of the program is what keeps it in a perpetual state of mediocrity.
Click to expand...

What are you talking about? You're basing projections on what you think might happen (based on facilities/monetary support/20-year history), not what has actually happened. We hold a very similar resume over the past four seasons as Nebraska.

If you look at the last four seasons, against West Division opponents:

Head to head:
2-2; average score Nebraska 30 Minnesota 26

vs Northwestern:
Nebraska 3-1; average score 29-21 (+8)
Minnesota 3-1; average score 18-18 (--)

vs Illinois:
Nebraska 3-1; average score 32-16 (+16)
Minnesota 2-1; average score 32-23 (+9)

vs Purdue:
Nebraska 3-1; average score 38-23 (+15)
Minnesota 3-0; average score 41-27 (+14)

vs Iowa:
Nebraska 1-3; average score 21-35 (-14)
Minnesota 1-3; average score 25-23 (+2)

vs Wisconsin:
Nebraska 0-3; average score 21-35 (-14)
Minnesota 0-4; average score 17-29 (-12)
 

Zeppelin Gopher said:
That was a rambling post befitting of Jeffrey Lebowski.

You made a blanket statement about acknowledging the Huskers "are way better than MN". There is very little recent evidence to back that up. We aren't talking about past success, the size of their fan base, etc. Based on the sample size of the past few seasons, there is every reason to believe we can compete with/have a solid chance to beat Nebraska next season.
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The program is in materially better shape. Their expected win totals will beat MN's in every projection, and they are likely to be favored in the head-to head. Neb's worst season since the start of the Pelini era is last year's 6-7 mark in which they beat #7 MSU. That win alone is better than any win we've had in a decade.

Forget ripping on me, your last sentence is what is toxic within the fan base. We continue to lose important games and we say we're close. That's garbage.
 

Gopher07 said:
What are you talking about? You're basing projections on what you think might happen (based on facilities/monetary support/20-year history), not what has actually happened. We hold a very similar resume over the past four seasons as Nebraska.

If you look at the last four seasons, against West Division opponents:

Head to head:
2-2; average score Nebraska 30 Minnesota 26

vs Northwestern:
Nebraska 3-1; average score 29-21 (+8)
Minnesota 3-1; average score 18-18 (--)

vs Illinois:
Nebraska 3-1; average score 32-16 (+16)
Minnesota 2-1; average score 32-23 (+9)

vs Purdue:
Nebraska 3-1; average score 38-23 (+15)
Minnesota 3-0; average score 41-27 (+14)

vs Iowa:
Nebraska 1-3; average score 21-35 (-14)
Minnesota 1-3; average score 25-23 (+2)

vs Wisconsin:
Nebraska 0-3; average score 21-35 (-14)
Minnesota 0-4; average score 17-29 (-12)
Click to expand...

OK, add another season and it's 3-2 Nebraska head-to-head, and then break out wins against T25 opponents. Neb has had the ability to win those games and we just have not.
 

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