Gophers vs ranked opponents

tmvander

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Seeing Iowa fans get to celebrate a huge upset over Michigan after we loss a close one to Nebraska really stung. It had me thinking about Gophers pulling upsets over ranked opponents so I did a little digging. Since 2002 the gophers are 6-44 against ranked opponents. This includes non conference and bowl games. Of those 6 games 5 were teams ranked in the 20's (nowhere near top 5 teams).

I know that the Gophers had some rough seasons mixed in there, but that seems extreme. We've had some very good teams since 2002 as well. What are we missing that can get us an upset or two every year?

Below is a breakdown of Big Ten teams against ranked opponents since 2002. Note that some of these teams weren't in the Big Ten all of these years. These are all games against ranked opponents regardless if the team in question was also ranked (not looking at just underdog games).

OVERALL
GOPHERS 6-44 (#11, #21, #22, #23, #24, #24)
Iowa 21-28 (#3, #3, #5, #5, #8, #9, #9, #9, #12, #12, #12, #15, #16, #16, #18, #19, #19, #19, #20, #22, #25)
Wisconsin 27-32 (#1, #3, #5, #5, #7, #7 #8, #8, #12, #12, #12, #12, #14, #15, #15, #16, #17, #18, #18, #19, #19, #19, #21, #21, #22, #25, #25
Illinois 4-44 (#1, #5, #21, #22)
Indiana 7-38 (#15, #17, #18, #22, #23, #24, #24)
Nebraska 14 - 36 (#6, #7, #11, #12, #14, #20, #20, #22, #22, #22, #23, #24, #24, #24)
Northwestern 14 - 38 (#4, #7, #10, #13, #14, #16, #17, #17, #17, #18, #20, #21, #22, #25)
Maryland 12-37 (#5, #8, #10, #14, #16, #19, #19, #20, #21, #21, #23, #23)
Michigan 26-34 (#2, #4, #8, #8, #9, #9, #10, #10, #11, #11, #11, #12, #12, #13, #13, #14, #15, #15, #16, #17, #18, #19, #21, #22, #23, #24)
Michigan St 23-36 (#2, #3, #4, #4, #5, #5, #6, #7, #10, #11, #11, #12, #13, #16, #18, #18, #19, #19, #21, #22, #24, #25, #25)
Ohio St 50-18 (#1, #1, #2, #2, #2, #5, #7, #7, #8, #8, #8, #8, #9, #10, #10, #10, #10, #11, #11, #12, #12, #13, #13, #13, #14, #14, #15, #16, #16, #16, #17, #18, #18, #19, #20, #20, #20, #21, #21, #21, #21, #23, #23, #23, #24, #24, #24, #25, #25, #25)
Penn St 16-36 (#2, #6, #8, #9, #12, #14, #15, #15, #17, #18, #18, #19, #19, #22, #22, #24)
Purdue 5-42 (#7, #10, #14, #20, #23)
Rutgers 4-27 (#2, #3, #17, #24)

Win Percentage
Ohio St - .735
Wisconsin - .458
Michigan - .433
Iowa - .429
Michigan St - .390
Penn St - .308
Nebraska - .280
Northwestern - .269
Maryland - .245
Indiana - .156
Rutgers - .129
GOPHERS - .120
Purdue - .106
Illinois - .083

Best Win over ranked opponent
Ohio St - #1
Wisconsin - #1
Illinois - #1
Rutgers - #2
Michigan - #2
Michigan St - #2
Penn St - #2
Iowa - #3
Northwestern - #4
Maryland - #5
Nebraska - #6
Purdue - #7
GOPHERS - #11
Indiana - #15
 


Since Kill/Claeys took over in 2011, we are 2-15 against ranked opponents. Beat Nebraska in 2013 and 2014.

We're 17-13 in other Big Ten games in that same time.
 

Thank you for posting this. Myself, and other Gopher fans were discussing it over the weekend.

Our "best" victory on the list was over #11 Purdue in 2005 who was dysfunctional and ended the year 5-6.
 

I think it's clear what we're missing -- better teams with better players.

If you calculated the overall win percentages for each program since 2002, it probably wouldn't look much different than your list of wins over ranked opponents. Granted, you'll have the random head-scratcher like the Iowa win on Saturday, but generally speaking, good teams can beat good teams.
 


I think it's clear what we're missing -- better teams with better players.

If you calculated the overall win percentages for each program since 2002, it probably wouldn't look much different than your list of wins over ranked opponents. Granted, you'll have the random head-scratcher like the Iowa win on Saturday, but generally speaking, good teams can beat good teams.

And that is what we are missing
 

And that is what we are missing

I agree we're missing the head scratchers as well. Sure we've had some bad teams but historically are we worse than Northwestern and Maryland to the point where we shouldn't win a few more games against ranked opponents? Iowa has 4X as many wins. There has to be a luck factor involved to some degree and the Gophers seem to miss on this pretty badly. It's one thing to be blown out 58-0 but when things are close something has to give.
 

Since Kill/Claeys took over in 2011, we are 2-15 against ranked opponents. Beat Nebraska in 2013 and 2014.

We're 17-13 in other Big Ten games in that same time.

I'm guessing you are only talking about ranked B1G teams, but the record is 2-18 overall.
 

I know that the Gophers had some rough seasons mixed in there, but that seems extreme. We've had some very good teams since 2002 as well. What are we missing that can get us an upset or two every year?

Thanks for posting this. This is another example of why Ferentz keeps his job. His great years have been much farther apart recently, but even in the mediocre years, Iowa still pulls off upsets.

To answer your question, it's as easy as talent and coaching. We haven't had the right mix in 50+ years, and at this point I still don't think we do.
 



... It had me thinking about Gophers pulling upsets over ranked opponents so I did a little digging. Since 2002 the gophers are 6-44 against ranked opponents. This includes non conference and bowl games. Of those 6 games 5 were teams ranked in the 20's (nowhere near top 5 teams).

OVERALL
GOPHERS 6-44 (#11, #21, #22, #23, #24, #24)

I seem to recall someone posting recently that since 2001, we have only beat one end-of-the-year top 25 ranked opponent and that team was ranked 20-something. That means of the six posted above, five dropped out of the rankings altogether by the end of the season. This was one of the most depressing statistics I've read about Gopher football and there has been a lot of them.
 

I wonder what our record has been as underdogs? I can't really find a good source of information for that. I believe we are 100% winners as favorites and 0% winners as underdogs thus far this season. Looking at last year, I can't see us having been the underdog in any of our victories.

In 2014, we beat Michigan and Nebraska as underdogs. Those were also the last games that I was euphoric about a win.
 

I seem to recall someone posting recently that since 2001, we have only beat one end-of-the-year top 25 ranked opponent and that team was ranked 20-something. That means of the six posted above, five dropped out of the rankings altogether by the end of the season. This was one of the most depressing statistics I've read about Gopher football and there has been a lot of them.

The 2013 Nebraska squad (who we beat) was #26 in the AP poll and #25 in the USA/Coaches Poll at the end of the year.
In 1999 we beat two teams that finished ranked (#11 Penn State and #25 Illinois)
 

I wonder what our record has been as underdogs? I can't really find a good source of information for that. I believe we are 100% winners as favorites and 0% winners as underdogs thus far this season. Looking at last year, I can't see us having been the underdog in any of our victories.

In 2014, we beat Michigan and Nebraska as underdogs. Those were also the last games that I was euphoric about a win.

I'm pretty sure we were the underdogs against Maryland this year so at least we have one "upset" under our belts.
 



The 2013 Nebraska squad (who we beat) was #26 in the AP poll and #25 in the USA/Coaches Poll at the end of the year.
In 1999 we beat two teams that finished ranked (#11 Penn State and #25 Illinois)

Oh great, our only win this century was against a team ranked 25-1/2. Maze is looking better all the time!
 

We're doing just fine. We're in the middle of the west standings.

As long as we're competing with Illinois and Purdue, we are right where we want to be.
 

We're doing just fine. We're in the middle of the west standings.

As long as we're competing with Illinois and Purdue, we are right where we want to be.

Setting pretty high goals, huh?
 

Thanks for doing this, I listened to the GopherHole podcast and GopherLady was talking as if we had a number of quality wins under Kill. It's possible I could have missed a game but I went back and looked to find every Gopher win during past six years over a B1G opponent who finished with a conference record above .500....there have only been 2. The wins over Nebraska in 2013 and 2014 are the only wins in the past 6 seasons over winning conference teams (and also as posted in this thread the only top 25 wins). It's probably not a coincidence that Nebraska fired Bo Pelini at the end of 2014.
 

What bothers me the most about the current Kill/Claeys era Gophers is that they are more often than not on the losing side of closely contested games by a TD or less.

Like that loss to Michigan deep in the red zone and the Gophers ran out of time due to bad clock management.

They seem to not have that finishing will power or touch to win close games.

What is it, team discipline in the waning moments of the game, coaching, or the players simply were gassed?

They have to develop that Killer instinct. That is what is separating them from the top heap of B1G play. Can they just win one or two of those games each season?
 

What bothers me the most about the current Kill/Claeys era Gophers is that they are more often than not on the losing side of closely contested games by a TD or less.

Like that loss to Michigan deep in the red zone and the Gophers ran out of time due to bad clock management.

They seem to not have that finishing will power or touch to win close games.

What is it, team discipline in the waning moments of the game, coaching, or the players simply gassed?

Situational awareness by all of the above...
 

What bothers me the most about the current Kill/Claeys era Gophers is that they are more often than not on the losing side of closely contested games by a TD or less.

Like that loss to Michigan deep in the red zone and the Gophers ran out of time due to bad clock management.

They seem to not have that finishing will power or touch to win close games.

What is it, team discipline in the waning moments of the game, coaching, or the players simply gassed?

They have actually won a number of close games, it's just the games they have won by a TD or less have been of the "that would have been a really terrible loss variety": Oregon State, Colorado State, and Rutgers this year, Colorado State, Kent State, and Ohio in 2015. Purdue in 2014 (also Nebraska in '14 which was the extremely rare good win).
 

A win last Saturday night really could've put some distance between us and Illinois & Purdue on this list; might even have been just enough to get us past Rutgers.
 

What bothers me the most about the current Kill/Claeys era Gophers is that they are more often than not on the losing side of closely contested games by a TD or less.

Like that loss to Michigan deep in the red zone and the Gophers ran out of time due to bad clock management.

They seem to not have that finishing will power or touch to win close games.

What is it, team discipline in the waning moments of the game, coaching, or the players simply were gassed?

They have to develop that Killer instinct. That is what is separating them from the top heap of B1G play. Can they just win one or two of those games each season?

This was essentially why I started this thread. It wasn't to bash the coaching staff or program. It is legitimately interesting to look at those numbers and and not see more wins. Especially since Kill took over, we've had some above average teams. They have been very competitive but just can't get over that hump of beating the teams that they aren't favored over. I know they have won "close" games throughout the years but I'm not going to say that beating Rutgers on a last second field goal is nice to see because it shows we're tough and can pull out a close victory. Why can't they do it on the goal line vs Michigan, or make a key stop against a top 5 Iowa team? Why do they need to fumble going into the end zone against TCU or blow a 24 point 4th quarter lead against Michigan?
 

What bothers me the most about the current Kill/Claeys era Gophers is that they are more often than not on the losing side of closely contested games by a TD or less.

Like that loss to Michigan deep in the red zone and the Gophers ran out of time due to bad clock management.

They seem to not have that finishing will power or touch to win close games.

What is it, team discipline in the waning moments of the game, coaching, or the players simply were gassed?

They have to develop that Killer instinct. That is what is separating them from the top heap of B1G play. Can they just win one or two of those games each season?

It's both good and bad. It means the team is right there, we're not a long ways from getting to where we want to be. But it seems the coaching staff and players make a lot of bad decisions late in the game, and that is worrisome.
 

This was essentially why I started this thread. It wasn't to bash the coaching staff or program. It is legitimately interesting to look at those numbers and and not see more wins. Especially since Kill took over, we've had some above average teams. They have been very competitive but just can't get over that hump of beating the teams that they aren't favored over. I know they have won "close" games throughout the years but I'm not going to say that beating Rutgers on a last second field goal is nice to see because it shows we're tough and can pull out a close victory. Why can't they do it on the goal line vs Michigan, or make a key stop against a top 5 Iowa team? Why do they need to fumble going into the end zone against TCU or blow a 24 point 4th quarter lead against Michigan?

Much of this is why there were a decent number of us here that never understood the love fest around Jerry Kill. This was the key problem under Mason, team was good enough to be competitive but couldn't get over the hump. Things took a step back under Brewster and Kill righted the ship to the point of being back to being competitive with most teams but not quite getting over the hump. 2016 is playing out much the same way under Claeys in that we are right there with the good teams we have played but can't get it done.

No clue what the solution is to finally crack through the way Wisconsin, Iowa and others have done but haven't really seen much from Claeys to this point that makes me think he will be the guy to finally get it done. Hopefully I end up being wrong.
 




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