I realize I am not an incredibly active poster on this site compared to some of the heavy hitters out there, but I thought I would share a few thoughts that have been running through my mind this season.
First, I'll start with where my expectations were at the beginning of the season. I took a look at the schedule, the easiest on paper in recent memory, coupled with a senior QB, a good enough defense, and two stud RBs, I 100% expected to go 9-3 with a shot at the BIG West title and a trip to Indy. Immediately after the first game, the product did not match up with expectations:
-Game 1: A tight win over a bottom-of-the-pack PAC 12 team
-Game 2: A fun offensive performance over a terrible FCS team
-Game 3: Another tight win over a team we should have blown away
-Game 4: A loss on the road to a middle of the pack BIG team that we had in hand
-Game 5: The ugliest football game of the season (bleeding eyes & ears)
-Game 6: A win over Maryland, that wasn't as fun as the final score indicated
-Game 7: A nail-biter over the worst team in the BIG
Now, after all of that, I am not saying Fire TC. Do I think he will be the long-term solution? Probably not. But here we are over 50% through the season and it made me really think about what is a realistic expectation for this program. We have beaten these points to death here on GopherHole: Power 5 conference with legacy title contenders; for a multitude of reasons will never need a stadium above 52k capacity; likely won't be a perennial top 30 recruiting class team. So, what can we be? For that, I think we should look West.
Partially inspired by this article: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/10/28/13440362/utah-utes-pac-12-conference-realignment I truly think Utah is a good example. Here me out:
-They play in a conference where they are not in the upper tier for facilities or other attractive qualities to recruits (vs. ORE, USC, Stanford, Cal, Washington, UCLA, etc)
-Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011 they have averaged the 47th best recruiting class in the country, hardly world beating
-In that same time they have averaged ~8 wins/season, including 9 wins in '14 & 10 in '15
-They don't play football in a college town and average less than 50k/game, but still have a lively atmosphere and success
So, how do we get from our current base of 6 wins/year to what Utah has and does (currently ranked #17)?
-Fundamentally sound
-Coach continuity
-Strong defense
-Strong run game
I know this is a very simplistic take, but we are not firing on the four cylinders listed above:
-Penalties & awful special teams (outside of Carpenter's FGs)
-TC's 1st year, installing a new offensive system, and changes to the D
-Defense has really played only 1 good game this year
-This we have, but have gone away from it this season at very odd times (e.g. Iowa) or show lack of play diversity
Long story short (and especially if you didn't want to read all of the above), I believe Utah is a strong model for what the Gophers can become, and become relatively quickly. Utah's model is very similar to what the Gophers were getting to under Kill, now it's time to press back in that direction. I don't think we will ever be OSU, Michigan, or even Wisconsin, but gosh, I would love to be Utah right about now.
First, I'll start with where my expectations were at the beginning of the season. I took a look at the schedule, the easiest on paper in recent memory, coupled with a senior QB, a good enough defense, and two stud RBs, I 100% expected to go 9-3 with a shot at the BIG West title and a trip to Indy. Immediately after the first game, the product did not match up with expectations:
-Game 1: A tight win over a bottom-of-the-pack PAC 12 team
-Game 2: A fun offensive performance over a terrible FCS team
-Game 3: Another tight win over a team we should have blown away
-Game 4: A loss on the road to a middle of the pack BIG team that we had in hand
-Game 5: The ugliest football game of the season (bleeding eyes & ears)
-Game 6: A win over Maryland, that wasn't as fun as the final score indicated
-Game 7: A nail-biter over the worst team in the BIG
Now, after all of that, I am not saying Fire TC. Do I think he will be the long-term solution? Probably not. But here we are over 50% through the season and it made me really think about what is a realistic expectation for this program. We have beaten these points to death here on GopherHole: Power 5 conference with legacy title contenders; for a multitude of reasons will never need a stadium above 52k capacity; likely won't be a perennial top 30 recruiting class team. So, what can we be? For that, I think we should look West.
Partially inspired by this article: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/10/28/13440362/utah-utes-pac-12-conference-realignment I truly think Utah is a good example. Here me out:
-They play in a conference where they are not in the upper tier for facilities or other attractive qualities to recruits (vs. ORE, USC, Stanford, Cal, Washington, UCLA, etc)
-Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011 they have averaged the 47th best recruiting class in the country, hardly world beating
-In that same time they have averaged ~8 wins/season, including 9 wins in '14 & 10 in '15
-They don't play football in a college town and average less than 50k/game, but still have a lively atmosphere and success
So, how do we get from our current base of 6 wins/year to what Utah has and does (currently ranked #17)?
-Fundamentally sound
-Coach continuity
-Strong defense
-Strong run game
I know this is a very simplistic take, but we are not firing on the four cylinders listed above:
-Penalties & awful special teams (outside of Carpenter's FGs)
-TC's 1st year, installing a new offensive system, and changes to the D
-Defense has really played only 1 good game this year
-This we have, but have gone away from it this season at very odd times (e.g. Iowa) or show lack of play diversity
Long story short (and especially if you didn't want to read all of the above), I believe Utah is a strong model for what the Gophers can become, and become relatively quickly. Utah's model is very similar to what the Gophers were getting to under Kill, now it's time to press back in that direction. I don't think we will ever be OSU, Michigan, or even Wisconsin, but gosh, I would love to be Utah right about now.
