What the numbers say...

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homermn

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I thought it would be interesting to start looking beyond the "eye test" and start looking at what the numbers say about the Gophers season. I went back and looked at Bill Connelly's Decade of S&P+ Ratings. "The S&P+ Ratings are a college football rating system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays)." I think Bill produces some fantastic data and I've always enjoyed tracking the Gophers overall progress with his metrics.

It's interesting to see the trends, Jerry Kill, and staff has shifted the Gophers from a perennially terrible football team, into one that sits just outside the big kid's table. Claeys through 7 games has maintained the ship, which for a 1st-year coach is okay. The team is still on track to do what the data suggested it do at the beginning of the season -- Win 7 games. The data suggests that Gophers fans should be optimistic, Rutgers was the worst game of the season hands down, but there were also some great performances against Indiana State, Colorado State, and Maryland.

I think we're asking a ton from Claeys and he's paid enough that we should. But, I also think as a 1st-year head coach should we expect a Top 25 team? Sure, it'd be nice but he still deserves the opportunity to make it his team. I'd be interested in what data other folks have that tell their side of the story.


Year S&P+ Record
2016: 39 (5-2)
2015: 37 (6-7)
2014: 36 (8-5)
2013: 80 (8-5)
2012: 71 (6-7)
2011: 85 (3-9)
2010: 75 (3-9)
2009: 63 (6-7)
2008: 55 (7-6)
2007: 78 (1-11)
2006: 38 (6-7)
2005: 16 (7-5)
 



Defense S&P+ Rating

Very strong defense overall, but 95th on Passing Downs this year.

Year S&P+ Record
2016: 25 (5-2)
2015: 24 (6-7)
2014: 37 (8-5)
2013: 65 (8-5)
2012: 70 (6-7)
2011: 89 (3-9)
2010: 85 (3-9)
2009: 89 (6-7)
2008: 83 (7-6)
2007: 109 (1-11)
2006: 73 (6-7)
2005: 50 (7-5)
 

Wins and losses are a little harder to measure right now, as this season's SOS is about as weak as it gets. I'm interested to see JJ's Offense and Bart's line in year 2 though, because I think it will get better. One thing I dont like so far from the Claeys tenure is the overall lack of discipline, hopefully that gets fixed.

All that said, I think Claeys does deserve more time as of right now.
 


It is pretty amazing how far the program dropped since the Mase era and then recovered to repectability under Kill. Have we hit the proverbial plateau these past 3 years or what.

The wins and losses have in so many cases razor thin affairs both for and against us but the stats suggest the teams have been more similar than different. The euphoria of 2014 led to the feeling that something special might be building then the tough schedule and injury bug of 2015 hit. 2016 has been a festival of flags and the defensive "struggles" on third down are frustrating because we became accustomed to very good if not quite elite defense.

The optimists will look at these numbers and say look how far we have come and the pessimists will say look how far we have to go.
 

Offensive Ratings.

Wisconsin is 65, Iowa 67 so far this year.
Wisconsin and Minnesota have almost the exact same Offense when comparing the numbers, Wisconsin is just very very good at making sure you can't score more than their offense. If Brooks and #1 can continue to put up the average 5+ yard runs and Mitch can figure out a way to convert them into TDs (this has been a huge challenge with this years offense), Minnesota has a better shot at an upset then most give credit for.

Year S&P+ Record

2016: 68 (5-2)
2015: 58 (6-7)
2014: 44 (8-5)
2013: 77 (8-5)
2012: 83 (6-7)
2011: 79 (3-9)
2010: 67 (3-9)
2009: 81 (6-7)
2008: 76 (7-6)
2007: 71 (1-11)
2006: 22 (6-7)
2005: 12 (7-5)
 


I think that when all is said and done Claeys gets an extension with the same easy buy out. The changes on offense should be more evident next year. With less tinkering on defense it should also be better. It's an open possibility that there will be some further coaching changes, particularly on offense, if Jay Johnson wants changes, I think that they will happen.
 



minibeaver said:
Wins and losses are a little harder to measure right now, as this season's SOS is about as weak as it gets. I'm interested to see JJ's Offense and Bart's line in year 2 though, because I think it will get better. One thing I dont like so far from the Claeys tenure is the overall lack of discipline, hopefully that gets fixed.

All that said, I think Claeys does deserve more time as of right now.
Click to expand...

I think this is spot on, Clayes recognized the problem..but is it reasonable to expect that the new hires can turn it around in one year with the other guy's players. However, it feels like we've regressed and the numbers tend to suggest we have, which is disappointing. My belief is that the single biggest reason the Gophers are not 7-0 right now and whiffed against Rutgers is the COMPLETE and ABSOLUTE lack of Big (Explosive) Plays. You can't win football games assuming every possession will be a slog of 15-20 3-5 yard plays.
 

olddoc said:
For 2016 put in the SOS as a variable.
Click to expand...

I think the variable there is we've already won as many games as we did in 2015. Do you think last years team would have performed better with this schedule? Possibly.
 


homermn said:
I think the variable there is we've already won as many games as we did in 2015. Do you think last years team would have performed better with this schedule? Possibly.
Click to expand...

We were 4-3 overall, 1-2 in the BIG through 7 games last year before the wheels came off when the schedule got significantly harder. I think odds are very high that last years squad would be in almost the exact same spot as this years squad if it played this schedule especially when you factor in that this year's squad has yet to face a team that is currently ranked whereas last year's schedule started with a top 10 team in TCU.

Last year we finished with Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. That seems far more daunting then what is currently staring us in the face with: Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Wisconsin.
 



The S&P+ rankings essentially match up with my own "eye test" which makes the "Fire Claeys" crowd more baffling to me.

I'll say it again: if you don't like Claeys and don't feel he is the coach long term that's your opinion and you might be right, we'll see. But some of the calls for his firing now or at the end of the season without knowing how the Gophers will finish are irrational.
 

stevedave23 said:
The S&P+ rankings essentially match up with my own "eye test" which makes the "Fire Claeys" crowd more baffling to me.

I'll say it again: if you don't like Claeys and don't feel he is the coach long term that's your opinion and you might be right, we'll see. But some of the calls for his firing now or at the end of the season without knowing how the Gophers will finish are irrational.
Click to expand...
+1 I think Claeys should get the standard three years. We will have a relatively small class so our recruiting ranking might dip a bit this year, next years recruiting class will be a better measure of how well he recruits. The changes made on offense and defense should be more evident next year, results on the field and in recruiting, will determine if Tracy goes into year 3 on the hot seat.
 

I tentatively agree about giving Claeys more time, but it's completely fair for the fan base to want a more robust search. His promotion was the result of unusual circumstances, and he's not proven. Kill did not perform well enough while here to give his assistants equity in a head coaching context either.

Unfairly, Claeys will have to win quick because he lacks presence and charisma. His sideline and interview demeanor is just a sad trombone soundbite. This is important - the fact that Claeys fails to get fan or media advocates is meaningful. Pairing a coach with low charisma with a team that just fails the eye test most weeks frustrates fans.

The 5-2 argument holds water and makes sense. We're likely to win more games. But a 7-win season with wins over a soft non-con, MD, RU, IL, & PU means little. It's right for Coyle and fans to consider whether this is the head coach they want for a longer term.
 

SamSquatch said:
Unfairly, Claeys will have to win quick because he lacks presence and charisma. His sideline and interview demeanor is just a sad trombone soundbite. This is important - the fact that Claeys fails to get fan or media advocates is meaningful. Pairing a coach with low charisma with a team that just fails the eye test most weeks frustrates fans.
Click to expand...

I agree with you here but I'll add that this is a tough media market to win over. While Claeys' introverted approach has drawn criticism this media market is also famous for labeling any coach with enthusiasm as a carnival barker or a wind bag. In fact, the media in this market has pretty much shredded every head coach with the exception of maybe Bud Grant, Tom Kelly and maybe Ron Gardenhire (media loved his crabby/grumpy demeanor). For those who forgot the media was also turning on Jerry Kill before he stepped down.
 

homermn said:
I thought it would be interesting to start looking beyond the "eye test" and start looking at what the numbers say about the Gophers season. I went back and looked at Bill Connelly's Decade of S&P+ Ratings. "The S&P+ Ratings are a college football rating system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays)." I think Bill produces some fantastic data and I've always enjoyed tracking the Gophers overall progress with his metrics.

It's interesting to see the trends, Jerry Kill, and staff has shifted the Gophers from a perennially terrible football team, into one that sits just outside the big kid's table. Claeys through 7 games has maintained the ship, which for a 1st-year coach is okay. The team is still on track to do what the data suggested it do at the beginning of the season -- Win 7 games. The data suggests that Gophers fans should be optimistic, Rutgers was the worst game of the season hands down, but there were also some great performances against Indiana State, Colorado State, and Maryland.

I think we're asking a ton from Claeys and he's paid enough that we should. But, I also think as a 1st-year head coach should we expect a Top 25 team? Sure, it'd be nice but he still deserves the opportunity to make it his team. I'd be interested in what data other folks have that tell their side of the story.


Year S&P+ Record
2016: 39 (5-2)
2015: 37 (6-7)
2014: 36 (8-5)
2013: 80 (8-5)
2012: 71 (6-7)
2011: 85 (3-9)
2010: 75 (3-9)
2009: 63 (6-7)
2008: 55 (7-6)
2007: 78 (1-11)
2006: 38 (6-7)
2005: 16 (7-5)
Click to expand...

Very interesting, I'm a big believer in Bill C's S&P numbers.

Man, did we really underachieve in 2005. That was a super talented team (offensively at least); that damn blocked punt Sconnie game kept us from having a super season.
 

7 wins and Claeys will undoubtedly get another season (possibly a small extension as well) and the program will have the chance to further stabilize. Going forward we need to see continued improvement in offensive line play, QB position in general, more playmaking on defense, and (the most frustrating thing in my opinion) a vast improvement in team discipline. Our goal should be to win our bowl game and finish at 8-5 or 9-4 although 7-6 with a loss in the bowl game, as stated before, will be enough to continue with Claeys in place.

The next step in the program's growth is recruiting at a better clip, continue player/scheme development, and ofc start winning 8-9 games more consistently.
 

Thanks for the info. Makes for some interesting reading. I'm in "wait till the end of season camp" for Claeys.
 

Combined Ratings

Minnesota
Year S&P+ Record
2016: 39 (5-2)
2015: 37 (6-7)
2014: 36 (8-5)
2013: 80 (8-5)
2012: 71 (6-7)
2011: 85 (3-9)
2010: 75 (3-9)
2009: 63 (6-7)
2008: 55 (7-6)
2007: 78 (1-11)
2006: 38 (6-7)
2005: 16 (7-5)

Wisconsin
Year S&P+ Record
2016: 9 (5-2)
2015: 32 (10-3)
2014: 25 (10-3)
2013: 19 (9-4)
2012: 15 (8-6)
2011: 8 (11-3)
2010: 16 (11-2)
2009: 18 (9-3)
2008: 44 (7-6)
2007: 36 (9-4)
2006: 28 (12-1)
2005: 24 (7-5)

Iowa
Year S&P+ Record
2016: 35 (5-3)
2015: 38 (12-2)
2014: 63 (7-6)
2013: 29 (8-5)
2012: 49 (6-7)
2011: 47 (7-6)
2010: 18 (8-5)
2009: 10 (11-2)
2008: 13 (9-4)
2007: 66 (6-6)
2006: 47 (6-7)
2005: 19 (7-5)
 

I'd like to see the defensive and offensive rankings of our 2016 opponents. I know where to find them, but you've been kind enough to collate the data so far...
 

homermn said:
I think this is spot on, Clayes recognized the problem..but is it reasonable to expect that the new hires can turn it around in one year with the other guy's players. However, it feels like we've regressed and the numbers tend to suggest we have, which is disappointing. My belief is that the single biggest reason the Gophers are not 7-0 right now and whiffed against Rutgers is the COMPLETE and ABSOLUTE lack of Big (Explosive) Plays. You can't win football games assuming every possession will be a slog of 15-20 3-5 yard plays.
Click to expand...

We lost to Penn State and Iowa by a total of what, 10 points? How quickly people are ready to throw Tracy Claeys under the bus. If Ray Buford, KiAnte Hardin, Tamarion Johnson, Dior Johnson had not been suspended, and had been allowed to play in the Penn State game, I think we would have walked away with a victory. Have you conveniently forgotten about the celebrated restraining order? What an amazing contortion of our legal system to influence sports gambling. What kind of hammerlock will the sports gambling world think of next to constrain and handicap our Golden Gophers. Can anybody else cite such a restraining order for any other FBS or NFL team? Not one, not two, but five players! The Minneapolis / Hennepin County court system appears to be a circus act for the benefit of any interest that wishes to take key Golden Gopher Football players out of circulation. We win against Rutgers in spite of a corrupt local judicial system that tries to throw the game by disqualifying 5 of our players. What would the score have been if all 5 had all been allowed to play? I understand that perhaps only two of them might have actually played, but our #3 KiAnte Hardin is undeniably a playmaker. From GopherSports.com: (KiAnte Hardin) Started against Oregon State and recorded six tackles and two pass breakups • tallied seven tackles and recorded an interception returning it for 31 yards in start against Iowa. Also had a 34 yard kickoff return • intercepted a pass and broke up another against Maryland. Taking KiAnte Hardin off the field helps narrow or perhaps reverse the spread. What kind of creative law will be imposed to flood our Golden Gopher bilges against Purdue? What a soap opera. Only in Ziggy Wilf's Minneapolis.
 

So we're basically playing Oregon State Saturday? If someone knows how to better format this stuff, have at it.


Team Offense Defense Overall
Oregon State 97 67 88
Colorado State 46 84 61
Penn State 36 14 16
Iowa 66 34 42
Maryland 72 47 63
Rutgers 125 95 116
Illionis 99 68 85
Minnesota 68 25 39
 


6 Nov 1999 said:
We lost to Penn State and Iowa by a total of what, 10 points? How quickly people are ready to throw Tracy Claeys under the bus. If Ray Buford, KiAnte Hardin, Tamarion Johnson, Dior Johnson had not been suspended, and had been allowed to play in the Penn State game, I think we would have walked away with a victory. Have you conveniently forgotten about the celebrated restraining order? What an amazing contortion of our legal system to influence sports gambling. What kind of hammerlock will the sports gambling world think of next to constrain and handicap our Golden Gophers. Can anybody else cite such a restraining order for any other FBS or NFL team? Not one, not two, but five players! The Minneapolis / Hennepin County court system appears to be a circus act for the benefit of any interest that wishes to take key Golden Gopher Football players out of circulation. We win against Rutgers in spite of a corrupt local judicial system that tries to throw the game by disqualifying 5 of our players. What would the score have been if all 5 had all been allowed to play? I understand that perhaps only two of them might have actually played, but our #3 KiAnte Hardin is undeniably a playmaker. .
Click to expand...

The part in bold is fair....the rest though.....wow you went full on crazy there....
 

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