The return of the Sagarin Predictions

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Gopher07

Gopher07

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Welcome back to another year of predictions. It's pretty simple - I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

A big ol' word of caution, these ratings are pretty dependent on games being played, so there is a lot of movement in the first few weeks. As of now, the ratings are basically a bit of looking at last year and making some guesses. Generally things for the current season start to settle in around weeks 4/5.

Basically, don't get too in a tizzy because of what you see below. It's likely to change, and it's just for fun any how.

Without further ado, here's the preseason prognosis for Gophers 2016:

vs Oregon State -8
vs Indiana State -27
vs Colorado State -11.5
@ Penn State +7.5
vs Iowa +10.5
@ Maryland -1.5
vs Rutgers -12
@ Illinois -1
vs Purdue -11.5
@ Nebraska +11
vs Northwestern PICK
@ Wisconsin +10

Final record: 7-5 (4-5)/8-4 (5-4)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Oregon State, vs Indiana State, vs Colorado State, vs Rutgers, vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Maryland, @ Illinois, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Penn State, vs Iowa, @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin
 



Revisit this after week four, before that, too much is based on last year.
 

Could you explain your methodology a little more? I'm trying to calculate wisconsin.

Here is my math: WI-MN+home=79.73-72.26+2.61=+10.08
 


Com_Cool said:
Could you explain your methodology a little more? I'm trying to calculate wisconsin.

Here is my math: WI-MN+home=79.73-72.26+2.61=+10.08
Click to expand...

Whoa, good call. My spreadsheet was wonked. It should be (79.73+2.61)-72.26, or +10.08. Updated above, and double-checked the rest to make sure they were right. Thanks!
 

Gopher07 said:
Whoa, good call. My spreadsheet was wonked. It should be (79.73+2.61)-72.26, or +10.08. Updated above.
Click to expand...

I wasn't sure if I was missing some part of the calculation. Thanks!
 

nsmike said:
Revisit this after week four, before that, too much is based on last year.
Click to expand...

As noted above, that's definitely the case the first several weeks of the season and I will keep that caveat in there until week 4 this year. That said, I do find it interesting to follow the shifts early in the season as teams get sorted out. Big swings week 1 are followed by slightly smaller swings week 2, etc. until teams are pretty well within their expected range.
 

Thanks Gopher07. I love this thread each year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 



Gopher07 said:
Welcome back to another year of predictions. It's pretty simple - I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

A big ol' word of caution, these ratings are pretty dependent on games being played, so there is a lot of movement in the first few weeks. As of now, the ratings are basically a bit of looking at last year and making some guesses. Generally things for the current season start to settle in around weeks 4/5.

Basically, don't get too in a tizzy because of what you see below. It's likely to change, and it's just for fun any how.

Without further ado, here's the preseason prognosis for Gophers 2016:

vs Oregon State -8
vs Indiana State -27
vs Colorado State -11.5
@ Penn State +7.5
vs Iowa +10.5
@ Maryland -1.5
vs Rutgers -12
@ Illinois -1
vs Purdue -11.5
@ Nebraska +11
vs Northwestern PICK
@ Wisconsin +10

Final record: 7-5 (4-5)/8-4 (5-4)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Oregon State, vs Indiana State, vs Colorado State, vs Rutgers, vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Maryland, @ Illinois, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Penn State, vs Iowa, @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin
Click to expand...

More importantly, how would the NDSU Bison match up with the Crimson Tide if they were to play this weekend?
 

Vandy said:
More importantly, how would the NDSU Bison match up with the Crimson Tide if they were to play this weekend?
Click to expand...

I know it's a bit tongue-in-cheek but tough to say as the first couple games of the year haven't been updated in there yet. Before the Bison played their first game, they would've been 22-pt underdogs on a neutral field against the Tide. My guess is that took a hit as they beat #145 Charleston Southern by just 7, in OT, at home. So let's go with four touchdown underdogs.
 

Bison fans treat Sagarin Ratings like the rest of college football fans treat the AP and Coaches polls. They always point to this and reject all other logic. Like Jeff Sagarin is god and this is the Holy Bible.
 

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