Bill Connelly predicts 7.5 wins

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He's one of the best out there. Always look forward to Bill C's preview.
 

Always kinda annoying when folks start listing big name hires. Jim Harbaugh was not coming here.

Then he mentions treading water but no notes that we had no AD at the time.

Otherwise it is a great read.
 

everyday should be saturday randomizer selection

It took about 14 refreshes to get to Minny!

Your 2016 Playoff Prediction: Rutgers against Minnesota and Cal against Oklahoma State.
 

7.5 is probably about right. That would be a ballsy bet if that were the Vegas line
 


I like the article. But how can a team win 7.5 games?
 

Per Bill if I understand what he wrote +\- 2.5 games is two standard deviations from 7.5 using his model since 2005. Of 1344 discrete FBS teams in that time period only 15 have exceeded 2 SD and 9 have underachieved by more than 2 SD. So, between 5 and 10 games...the Iowa game will be monstrous for setting the tone of the season.
 







Hmm. Connelly's metric indicates that Penn St. is 17th in the country and that we had a 15% chance of winning. I've been told here that they are "hot garbage," so he clearly doesn't know what he's talking about. It also indicates that we are 38th. How many other teams in the top 40 have first-year coaches that the fanbase wants to fire two games into the conference schedule? It's gotta be most of them, right?
 

Connelly's predictions clearly more bullish than most on the Gophers. Pre-Leidner injury we were +4.5 underdogs at Maryland, which implies a win likelihood of ~35%. Connely has/had us at 53%.

Love his work, but I think his model may be overestimating the Gophers a bit.


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Hollinsanity said:
Connelly's predictions clearly more bullish than most on the Gophers. Pre-Leidner injury we were +4.5 underdogs at Maryland, which implies a win likelihood of ~35%. Connely has/had us at 53%.

Love his work, but I think his model may be overestimating the Gophers a bit.


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And yet it wasn't bullish enough for most folks starting this year if you went by the Ws predicted in other places :O
 


Under would be a catastrophe. I refuse to believe we are bad enough to not get to 8 wins with the crap teams still left on our schedule.
 

dpodoll68 said:
Hmm. Connelly's metric indicates that Penn St. is 17th in the country and that we had a 15% chance of winning. I've been told here that they are "hot garbage," so he clearly doesn't know what he's talking about. It also indicates that we are 38th. How many other teams in the top 40 have first-year coaches that the fanbase wants to fire two games into the conference schedule? It's gotta be most of them, right?
Click to expand...

Yeah and Penn St is 8 spots ahead of Wisconsin and 16 ahead of Pitt who beat them. Somehow Minnesota is also still ranked ahead of Iowa. Seems accurate...:rolleyes:
 

dpodoll68 said:
Hmm. Connelly's metric indicates that Penn St. is 17th in the country and that we had a 15% chance of winning. I've been told here that they are "hot garbage," so he clearly doesn't know what he's talking about. It also indicates that we are 38th. How many other teams in the top 40 have first-year coaches that the fanbase wants to fire two games into the conference schedule? It's gotta be most of them, right?
Click to expand...
Do you think Penn State is the 17th best in the country?
 

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