Early CFP Picks: Is This 1st Year B1G Gets Left Out?

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SelectionSunday

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Who do ya' like?

Subject to change prior to the Sept. 1 opening night, here are my 4 CFP qualifiers. I have the B1G and Pac 12 sitting it out this season.

Florida State (ACC champion) -- ACC is softest of the Power 5
Notre Dame (Independent) -- Like how Irish's schedule sets up
Oklahoma (Big XII champion) -- Odds are we'll have someone from last year repeat
Tennessee (SEC champion) -- Alabama is due to have a 2- or 3-loss season

The common denominators are they all have their most important (at least one) non-conference game at home or at a neutral site, along with what figures to be their most significant conference game at home.

Florida State -- vs. Ole Miss in Orlando, Florida in Tallahassee, Clemson in Tallahassee

Notre Dame -- Michigan State and Stanford in South Bend

Oklahoma -- Ohio State and Oklahoma State in Norman

Tennessee -- Virginia Tech in Bristol, Alabama in Knoxville
 

It could be the first year anyone gets left out... every year.

"Alabama is due to have a 2- or 3-loss season"

They lost 3 in 2010 and two losses in 2013 and 2014... I guess they're "due"?
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
"Alabama is due to have a 2- or 3-loss season"

They lost 3 in 2010 and two losses in 2013 and 2014... I guess they're "due"?
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Touche!

Should have said, "2- or 3-losses (prior to) bowl season." That would make it 5 straight (regular) seasons with 1 loss for 'Bama. In 2010 the Tide had a "dreadful" 9-3 regular season.
 

If Ohio state wins Big 10 champsionship no way they get left out. If Gophers have a miracle season like Iowa did last year and somehow squeak one out against the Eastern division, then yes the Big 10 will be left out this year.
 

LakerFan said:
If Ohio state wins Big 10 championship no way they get left out. If Gophers have a miracle season like Iowa did last year and somehow squeak one out against the Eastern division, then yes the Big 10 will be left out this year.
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My hunch is top of East is going to beat each other up, each go 1-1 vs. the other 2 beasts, and maybe they drop an unexpected one somewhere along the way (vs. Penn State, Indiana, or someone good from the West). OSU is always uber-talented and they have the best QB in the conference, but they still have a lot of new guys this year. I think Michigan or Michigan State wins the East, but I think both will have a couple overall losses. Won't be surprised if the West champ gets it done in Indy this year.

I would venture to say it will be extremely rare when a B1G champion with 1 loss gets left out. Ditto for a 1-loss SEC champion and a 1-loss Notre Dame.
 


SelectionSunday said:
My hunch is top of East is going to beat each other up, each go 1-1 vs. the other 2 beasts, and maybe they drop an unexpected one somewhere along the way (vs. Penn State, Indiana, or someone good from the West). OSU is always uber-talented and they have the best QB in the conference, but they still have a lot of new guys this year. I think Michigan or Michigan State wins the East, but I think both will have a couple overall losses. Won't be surprised if the West champ gets it done in Indy this year.
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Agree, but with Iowa's performance in the Rosebowl last year still fresh in the committee's minds they may question if any team from the West even one that goes undefeated, really is CFP caliber. Gopher's schedule would be easy to criticize as would a few others.
 

LakerFan said:
Agree, but with Iowa's performance in the Rosebowl last year still fresh in the committee's minds they may question if any team from the West even one that goes undefeated, really is CFP caliber. Gopher's schedule would be easy to criticize as would a few others.
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Good point. I guess that's where we have to trust the committee pays no attention to previous history/tradition/seasons, but I know a lot of people are skeptical they're able to do that.

Personally, I've agreed with the 4 teams they selected the first 2 seasons of the CFP, based on the results of the regular season. The committee doesn't have the luxury of hindsight after the semifinals have been played (both Sparty & OU getting thumped).
 

SelectionSunday said:
Oklahoma (Big XII champion) -- Odds are we'll have someone from last year repeat
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I gotta say, you're reasoning for Oklahoma isn't too sound. Even if they didn't get thumped last yr, there are a million other factors I would consider first.

Otherwise, I can agree with you on Notre Dame. TN? I'd say the winner of TN/AL (in Knoxville), so we might agree. :) I don't think FSU can get by D. Watson.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Personally, I've agreed with the 4 teams they selected the first 2 seasons of the CFP, based on the results of the regular season.
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I would have picked TCU over FSU in the first playoff. FSU had waaaay too many close games in the regular season (one stupid ND PI for ex.). FSU could have easily lost a few games that year. TCU was better.
 



Yah, but wins. Ask Iowa.

Wally the Beerman watches more football than the committee members.

Personally I'd have left out Oregon and inserted TCU, although I understand "reasons" doesn't include the eye test.
 

Gophers, Florida St, Alabama, and Notre Dame (and it hurts me to say that but their schedule does benefit them).

Mark it down.
 

bottlebass said:
Gophers, Florida St, Alabama, and Notre Dame (and it hurts me to say that but their schedule does benefit them).

Mark it down.
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We can always dream... I actually think ND finds a way to drop a game or two they should win.
 

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