ESPN Football Power Index - 2016, projects MN at 6-6, with .4% chance to win BT

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BleedGopher

BleedGopher

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per ESPN:

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

We are 65th:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

Go Gophers!!
 

Did they take our schedule into consideration?

2016 Minnesota Golden Gophers Schedule

Oregon State #72
Indiana State Not Ranked
Colorado State #97
Penn State #35
Iowa # 38
Maryland #74
Rutgers # 75
Illinois #73
Purdue #66
Nebraska #25
Northwestern #52
Wisconsin #31

If you just go off the rankings we should have been predicted to go 7-5. I could also make the argument that we are underscored. I'm thinking 8 wins is the least I'd expect.

Plus, I simulated the season on my son's PlayStation, with me playing as the Gophers vs. the game, and the Gophers not only won the B1G, but were undefeated National Champions!
 


On the schedule, I can't even imagine losing seven of those games, the range was 6.0 to 6.0 it's almost as if they forgot to measure and stuck us in the middle
 

BleedGopher said:
per ESPN:

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

We are 65th:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

Go Gophers!!
Click to expand...

A little surprised it is starting us off that low but I think the key part above is that the ratings and projections update daily. If we end up 6-6 with that schedule next year it would be a massive disappointment and it would also almost certainly mean that Claeys would be out the door with the new AD in charge.
 


I think the more important number is, what will Vegas say? Those guys know what they're doing.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I think the more important number is, what will Vegas say? Those guys know what they're doing.
Click to expand...

Yes, although their early bets tend to be for suckers who are just looking to kill time/money.

.4 percent would be 400 to 1 (correct or is it 600 to one? Math not my strong suit). 10 bucks becomes 4000 and 100 becomes 40 000. I would take that.
 

I agree on the Vegas guys...

SelectionSunday said:
I think the more important number is, what will Vegas say? Those guys know what they're doing.
Click to expand...

I think we will have a very nice season if Mitch and the O-line starters can stay healthy. Seems pretty thin for backups there. Somebody will emerge at wide receiver.
Defensively, it seems we have some depth. Defensive end, we can cheat with speed rushers and covering up with linebackers. If we win 6 or less games the mood will be similar to those presently roasting Pitino. The schedule is comparatively very favorable to recent years.
 

That database isn't searchable AFAIK. How did their rankings correlate with actual outcomes over the past 5 years? How do any of us know their index is any more predictive than Larry, Moe, or Curly on BTN, CBS, or ESPN? Serious question.
 



Winnipegopher said:
Yes, although their early bets tend to be for suckers who are just looking to kill time/money.

.4 percent would be 400 to 1 (correct or is it 600 to one? Math not my strong suit). 10 bucks becomes 4000 and 100 becomes 40 000. I would take that.
Click to expand...

xxxxxxxxxxxx
Not sure about your math or how it related to Vegas odds. I think what the .4% means is that if they simulate the season 1000 times, we win in four of those times.
 

Yikes. 6 win season would have me pretty disappointed. I'll be hoping for more than that!
 

denguegopher said:
xxxxxxxxxxxx
Not sure about your math or how it related to Vegas odds. I think what the .4% means is that if they simulate the season 1000 times, we win in four of those times.
Click to expand...

So my math was really off (as it was reading comprehension). Had a feeling something was wrong. thanks for the correction.
 

Otis said:
Did they take our schedule into consideration?

2016 Minnesota Golden Gophers Schedule

Oregon State #72
Indiana State Not Ranked
Colorado State #97
Penn State #35
Iowa # 38
Maryland #74
Rutgers # 75
Illinois #73
Purdue #66
Nebraska #25
Northwestern #52
Wisconsin #31

If you just go off the rankings we should have been predicted to go 7-5. I could also make the argument that we are underscored. I'm thinking 8 wins is the least I'd expect.

Plus, I simulated the season on my son's PlayStation, with me playing as the Gophers vs. the game, and the Gophers not only won the B1G, but were undefeated National Champions!
Click to expand...

Yes, the OP indicated that they took the schedule into account, as they'd have to in order to simulate the season.

I'm guessing that the difference is that the Illinois and Maryland games is on the road. The FPI difference between the teams must be offset by home-field advantage at least once per season on average across the simulations.. Conversely, Iowa and NW are far enough ahead of the Gophers that the home-field advantage is not enough.
 



Otis said:
Did they take our schedule into consideration?

2016 Minnesota Golden Gophers Schedule

Oregon State #72
Indiana State Not Ranked
Colorado State #97
Penn State #35
Iowa # 38
Maryland #74
Rutgers # 75
Illinois #73
Purdue #66
Nebraska #25
Northwestern #52
Wisconsin #31

If you just go off the rankings we should have been predicted to go 7-5. I could also make the argument that we are underscored. I'm thinking 8 wins is the least I'd expect.

Plus, I simulated the season on my son's PlayStation, with me playing as the Gophers vs. the game, and the Gophers not only won the B1G, but were undefeated National Champions!
Click to expand...

Our 2016 schedule is not nearly as delightful as some have been suggesting. We only have 4 Big Ten home games. We have 5 Big Ten away games. When you start peeling away the onion, what makes it even worse is that 3 out of 5 of our Big Ten away games are going to be in front of hostile crowds of 80,000+. Penn State - 1 October 2016, Beaver Stadium capacity 107,282. Nebraska - 12 November 2016, Memorial Stadium capacity 87,000. Wisconsin - 26 November 2016, Camp Randall Stadium capacity 80,231. The only break we get crowd wise is Iowa, playing them in TCF Bank instead of Kinnick. Playing on the road in the Big Ten is tough. It gets even tougher the larger the road game crowd. It is time to stop penciling in wins by just blindly looking at opponents on our schedule. We have a new offensive coordinator and a new offensive system. It takes time for everybody to learn the new system. I would not even pencil in a W against the Indiana State Sycamores at this juncture.
 

Winnipegopher said:
Yes, although their early bets tend to be for suckers who are just looking to kill time/money.

.4 percent would be 400 to 1 (correct or is it 600 to one? Math not my strong suit). 10 bucks becomes 4000 and 100 becomes 40 000. I would take that.
Click to expand...
250 to 1
 

matt said:
250 to 1
Click to expand...

Getting really pedantic the number is 249 to 1. (100 - 0.4) / 0.4 For instance, something that has a 33% chance of happening would get only 2 to 1 odds (67 vs 33) in Vegas, not 3 to 1.
 

6 Nov 1999 said:
Our 2016 schedule is not nearly as delightful as some have been suggesting. We only have 4 Big Ten home games. We have 5 Big Ten away games. When you start peeling away the onion, what makes it even worse is that 3 out of 5 of our Big Ten away games are going to be in front of hostile crowds of 80,000+. Penn State - 1 October 2016, Beaver Stadium capacity 107,282. Nebraska - 12 November 2016, Memorial Stadium capacity 87,000. Wisconsin - 26 November 2016, Camp Randall Stadium capacity 80,231. The only break we get crowd wise is Iowa, playing them in TCF Bank instead of Kinnick. Playing on the road in the Big Ten is tough. It gets even tougher the larger the road game crowd. It is time to stop penciling in wins by just blindly looking at opponents on our schedule. We have a new offensive coordinator and a new offensive system. It takes time for everybody to learn the new system. I would not even pencil in a W against the Indiana State Sycamores at this juncture.
Click to expand...
The 5 big ten road games does not make a big ten title less likely.
Every team in the west has 5 big ten road games next year.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
That database isn't searchable AFAIK. How did their rankings correlate with actual outcomes over the past 5 years? How do any of us know their index is any more predictive than Larry, Moe, or Curly on BTN, CBS, or ESPN? Serious question.
Click to expand...


Here the best I could come up:

2015 College Football Playoff Participants (FPI Preseason Rank)
National Champ: Alabama (#2)
Runner-up: Clemson (#19)
Semifinalist: Michigan State (#16)
Semifinalist: Oklahoma (#15)

B1G West Champ: Iowa (#64)
Minnesota (#51)

2014 College Football Playoff Participants (FPI Preseason Rank, with projected record)
National Champ: Ohio State (#14) (9.6-2.8)
Runner-up: Oregon (#2) (10.6-2.1)
Semifinalist: Florida State (#1) (12.1-.8)
Semifinalist: Alabama (#3) (10.2-2.3)

B1G West Champ: Wisconsin (#22) (9.7-2.9)
Minnesota (#67) (5.3-6.7)
 



Wow, you best be careful. You will get ripped on this board for going against the homer crowd.

The team won just two Big Ten games and three of the wins were seven points or less victories over MAC teams.

Also should be pointed out that starting two JUCO offensive lineman is usually not a desirable place to be in the Big Ten. And since it was felt that there was a need to bring in two JUCO offensive lineman, one has to question the capabilities of the back-ups. In addition, there are huge questions at WR. What is also scary to me is thinking about three players from the defensive side who will be drafted into the NFL and remembering the Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa games especially where the defense did not look too good. Also remembering Central Michigan having a RB go over 100 yards when their leading rusher coming into the game was around 350 for the year. Not sure who is going to be the other cornerback and Myrick has been picked on plenty during his career. Unfortunately, this team has a lot of questions and a head coach with zero track record as a head coach. I believe the Oregon State game will be no push over. They have a new transfer QB from Utah State that is pretty talented and they are in yer two now of Gary Andersen. They dealt with more injuries that MN last year. It won't be an easy game.

6 Nov 1999 said:
Our 2016 schedule is not nearly as delightful as some have been suggesting. We only have 4 Big Ten home games. We have 5 Big Ten away games. When you start peeling away the onion, what makes it even worse is that 3 out of 5 of our Big Ten away games are going to be in front of hostile crowds of 80,000+. Penn State - 1 October 2016, Beaver Stadium capacity 107,282. Nebraska - 12 November 2016, Memorial Stadium capacity 87,000. Wisconsin - 26 November 2016, Camp Randall Stadium capacity 80,231. The only break we get crowd wise is Iowa, playing them in TCF Bank instead of Kinnick. Playing on the road in the Big Ten is tough. It gets even tougher the larger the road game crowd. It is time to stop penciling in wins by just blindly looking at opponents on our schedule. We have a new offensive coordinator and a new offensive system. It takes time for everybody to learn the new system. I would not even pencil in a W against the Indiana State Sycamores at this juncture.
Click to expand...
 

6 Nov 1999 said:
It is time to stop penciling in wins by just blindly looking at opponents on our schedule.
Click to expand...

No one is saying it will be easy. I see us going 12-0, but expect some hard fought victories in there.
 

3399 said:
Wow, you best be careful. You will get ripped on this board for going against the homer crowd.

The team won just two Big Ten games and three of the wins were seven points or less victories over MAC teams.

Also should be pointed out that starting two JUCO offensive lineman is usually not a desirable place to be in the Big Ten. And since it was felt that there was a need to bring in two JUCO offensive lineman, one has to question the capabilities of the back-ups. In addition, there are huge questions at WR. What is also scary to me is thinking about three players from the defensive side who will be drafted into the NFL and remembering the Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa games especially where the defense did not look too good. Also remembering Central Michigan having a RB go over 100 yards when their leading rusher coming into the game was around 350 for the year. Not sure who is going to be the other cornerback and Myrick has been picked on plenty during his career. Unfortunately, this team has a lot of questions and a head coach with zero track record as a head coach. I believe the Oregon State game will be no push over. They have a new transfer QB from Utah State that is pretty talented and they are in yer two now of Gary Andersen. They dealt with more injuries that MN last year. It won't be an easy game.
Click to expand...

My guess is this had a lot to do with us losing several upperclassmen due to injuries (Lauer, Bobeck, etc).
 

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