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Road to Selection Sunday: 20 Teams In Contention For 8 Available At-Large Bids
By SelectionSunday
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/609218?referrer_id=
BUBBLEVILLE, U.S.A. -- As we inch closer to Selection Sunday -- 35 days away, but who's counting -- the number of candidates for the 36 at-large bids gradually is shrinking. At this writing, Road to Selection Sunday estimates there are 20 teams in contention for 8 available at-large bids. There was some good news for those bubble teams earlier this week when Louisville, a sure-fire NCAA Tournament team, self-imposed a ban for the 2016 postseason, opening up another spot in the Field of 68. Earlier this season, the NCAA banned SMU, another NCAA tourney certainty, meaning there will be two extra bubble teams in the field who otherwise would have been left out.
Let's take a quick look at those 20 bubble teams (RPI noted), in alphabetical order, zoning in a bit on what's working in their favor and/or conversely what's holding them back. The bubble will shrink significantly in the next few weeks, but for now we're being very generous. At least 3 or 4 of these teams have Charmin-soft resumes but they're getting the benefit of the doubt until there becomes more separation among the NCAA hopefuls.
20 Teams, 8 Bids
#58 Alabama -- The Tide hasn't been talked about much, but they are a viable at-large candidate. Non-conference SOS is #18 in the country, and they've done something with those games, beating Notre Dame and Wichita State on a neutral court, as well as @ Clemson.
#79 BYU -- Being really kind keeping the Cougars on the at-large board. There's that 0-2 record vs. the top 50 and no non-conference wins of any note (Belmont?). Probably not long for this list.
#68 Butler -- After a close look at the Bulldogs, they're not in as good of shape as I thought. Non-conference wins over Purdue and Cincinnati certainly are noteworthy, but what about that 1-5 record vs. the top 50 and #209 non-conference SOS, 2nd worst among bubble teams?
#67 Cincinnati -- The Bearcats are 6-4 in road/neutral games and have two very useful non-conference wins, vs. George Washington and @ VCU. There's also a significant road win over fellow bubble team UConn.
#83 Clemson -- I'll be brutally honest. The Tigers have mostly great numbers for an at-large candidate, bubble or no bubble. They're 6-4 vs. the top 50 (most wins among bubble teams) and 7-6 vs. the top 100 (2nd most wins among bubble teams). What's holding them back? I just can't look past that RPI ranking, highest among the bubble teams. No at-large has ever received an at-large bid with a RPI in the 80s, and the #334 non-conference SOS ranking is horrid. That's the kind of non-conference SOS the Selection Committee frowns upon.
#39 Florida State -- The Seminoles boast a 8-5 road/neutral record. There also are a couple useful wins over top-100 non-conference opponents (neither on their home court), @ Florida and vs. VCU on a neutral court.
#36 George Washington -- The Colonials are 4-1 vs. the top 50, including home wins over projected tournament teams Virginia and Seton Hall.
#66 Georgia -- Move along, not much to see here. The Bulldogs have played the #7 non-conference schedule in the nation, but it doesn't mean much when you're 1-5 in road/neutral games and 1-6 vs. the top 50.
#40 Kansas State -- The Wildcats upset of top-ranked Oklahoma gets them in the conversation, but their numbers aren't great. That's K-State's only top 50 win, and they're only 4-9 vs. the top 100.
#54 Michigan -- The Wolverines' disastrous week, getting waxed at home by both Indiana and Michigan State, moves them onto the bubble. Yes, U-M has no bad losses, but 2-5 vs. the top 50 and 4-7 vs. the top 100 isn't going to impress anyone. Even so, a neutral-site win over Texas and a home win over Maryland are a lot more than a lot of bubble teams have.
#42 Oregon State -- The Beavers are an excellent 5-5 vs. the top 50, and a 7-8 mark vs. the top 100 is solid as well. Not a good road team in the Pac 12, however.
#44 Pitt -- The Panthers are 4-3 vs. the top 50, and though they haven't played many road/neutral games, the record (4-2) is good. Don't like their non-conference schedule (15th among our 20 bubble teams), which features only a decent win over Davidson on a neutral court.
#30 Saint Joseph's -- The Hawks have the best RPI of all our bubble teams and have a 10-1 road/neutral record. On the downside they have no RPI top-50 wins and are only 3-4 vs. the top 100.
#51 Saint Mary's -- The Gaels resume is mostly a bunch of nothing special. There are decent non-conference wins over UC-Irvine and Stanford and a WCC win over Gonzaga, but the non-conference SOS (#208) is 18th among the bubble teams. The Gaels best win the WCC tourney.
#53 Texas Tech -- Not much to see here other than a decent RPI. Pedestrian numbers include 2-8 vs. the top 50, 4-9 vs. the top 100, and a 3-6 road/neutral record.
#73 UCLA -- This is the most psycho team on the planet. The Bruins are 6-9 vs. the top 100, a solid number of wins, and boast non-conference wins over Kentucky and Gonzaga (on the road). But that 3-7 road/neutral record has to improve.
#52 UConn -- The Huskies resume is average all around, which this year keeps you in the hunt. The road/neutral record is fine at 6-4, and there are a pair of non-conference wins that stand out (@ Texas, vs. Michigan). The 1-2 record vs. the top 50 is unimpressive.
#57 Vanderbilt -- The Commodores have a been a major disappointment, but they're still in the mix. The non-conference SOS is strong (#25), but the road/neutral record is not (3-8). Best non-conference wins are Stony Brook and Wake Forest?
#37 William & Mary -- The Tribe's non-conference strength of schedule (SOS) is solid at #54. The problem is they haven't really beaten anyone; they have no non-conference wins over teams in the top 100.
#64 Wisconsin -- The Badgers have more top-100 wins than any other bubble team with 8. The 3-3 record vs. the top 50 doesn't hurt either, but losses like the one to Western Illinois could come back to haunt.
The 8 We're Taking Right Now?
Florida State, George Washington, Oregon State, and Wisconsin are the strongest of the 8. That leaves the "last 4 in", and we're going with Alabama, Cincinnati, Michigan, and Pitt.
By SelectionSunday
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/609218?referrer_id=
BUBBLEVILLE, U.S.A. -- As we inch closer to Selection Sunday -- 35 days away, but who's counting -- the number of candidates for the 36 at-large bids gradually is shrinking. At this writing, Road to Selection Sunday estimates there are 20 teams in contention for 8 available at-large bids. There was some good news for those bubble teams earlier this week when Louisville, a sure-fire NCAA Tournament team, self-imposed a ban for the 2016 postseason, opening up another spot in the Field of 68. Earlier this season, the NCAA banned SMU, another NCAA tourney certainty, meaning there will be two extra bubble teams in the field who otherwise would have been left out.
Let's take a quick look at those 20 bubble teams (RPI noted), in alphabetical order, zoning in a bit on what's working in their favor and/or conversely what's holding them back. The bubble will shrink significantly in the next few weeks, but for now we're being very generous. At least 3 or 4 of these teams have Charmin-soft resumes but they're getting the benefit of the doubt until there becomes more separation among the NCAA hopefuls.
20 Teams, 8 Bids
#58 Alabama -- The Tide hasn't been talked about much, but they are a viable at-large candidate. Non-conference SOS is #18 in the country, and they've done something with those games, beating Notre Dame and Wichita State on a neutral court, as well as @ Clemson.
#79 BYU -- Being really kind keeping the Cougars on the at-large board. There's that 0-2 record vs. the top 50 and no non-conference wins of any note (Belmont?). Probably not long for this list.
#68 Butler -- After a close look at the Bulldogs, they're not in as good of shape as I thought. Non-conference wins over Purdue and Cincinnati certainly are noteworthy, but what about that 1-5 record vs. the top 50 and #209 non-conference SOS, 2nd worst among bubble teams?
#67 Cincinnati -- The Bearcats are 6-4 in road/neutral games and have two very useful non-conference wins, vs. George Washington and @ VCU. There's also a significant road win over fellow bubble team UConn.
#83 Clemson -- I'll be brutally honest. The Tigers have mostly great numbers for an at-large candidate, bubble or no bubble. They're 6-4 vs. the top 50 (most wins among bubble teams) and 7-6 vs. the top 100 (2nd most wins among bubble teams). What's holding them back? I just can't look past that RPI ranking, highest among the bubble teams. No at-large has ever received an at-large bid with a RPI in the 80s, and the #334 non-conference SOS ranking is horrid. That's the kind of non-conference SOS the Selection Committee frowns upon.
#39 Florida State -- The Seminoles boast a 8-5 road/neutral record. There also are a couple useful wins over top-100 non-conference opponents (neither on their home court), @ Florida and vs. VCU on a neutral court.
#36 George Washington -- The Colonials are 4-1 vs. the top 50, including home wins over projected tournament teams Virginia and Seton Hall.
#66 Georgia -- Move along, not much to see here. The Bulldogs have played the #7 non-conference schedule in the nation, but it doesn't mean much when you're 1-5 in road/neutral games and 1-6 vs. the top 50.
#40 Kansas State -- The Wildcats upset of top-ranked Oklahoma gets them in the conversation, but their numbers aren't great. That's K-State's only top 50 win, and they're only 4-9 vs. the top 100.
#54 Michigan -- The Wolverines' disastrous week, getting waxed at home by both Indiana and Michigan State, moves them onto the bubble. Yes, U-M has no bad losses, but 2-5 vs. the top 50 and 4-7 vs. the top 100 isn't going to impress anyone. Even so, a neutral-site win over Texas and a home win over Maryland are a lot more than a lot of bubble teams have.
#42 Oregon State -- The Beavers are an excellent 5-5 vs. the top 50, and a 7-8 mark vs. the top 100 is solid as well. Not a good road team in the Pac 12, however.
#44 Pitt -- The Panthers are 4-3 vs. the top 50, and though they haven't played many road/neutral games, the record (4-2) is good. Don't like their non-conference schedule (15th among our 20 bubble teams), which features only a decent win over Davidson on a neutral court.
#30 Saint Joseph's -- The Hawks have the best RPI of all our bubble teams and have a 10-1 road/neutral record. On the downside they have no RPI top-50 wins and are only 3-4 vs. the top 100.
#51 Saint Mary's -- The Gaels resume is mostly a bunch of nothing special. There are decent non-conference wins over UC-Irvine and Stanford and a WCC win over Gonzaga, but the non-conference SOS (#208) is 18th among the bubble teams. The Gaels best win the WCC tourney.
#53 Texas Tech -- Not much to see here other than a decent RPI. Pedestrian numbers include 2-8 vs. the top 50, 4-9 vs. the top 100, and a 3-6 road/neutral record.
#73 UCLA -- This is the most psycho team on the planet. The Bruins are 6-9 vs. the top 100, a solid number of wins, and boast non-conference wins over Kentucky and Gonzaga (on the road). But that 3-7 road/neutral record has to improve.
#52 UConn -- The Huskies resume is average all around, which this year keeps you in the hunt. The road/neutral record is fine at 6-4, and there are a pair of non-conference wins that stand out (@ Texas, vs. Michigan). The 1-2 record vs. the top 50 is unimpressive.
#57 Vanderbilt -- The Commodores have a been a major disappointment, but they're still in the mix. The non-conference SOS is strong (#25), but the road/neutral record is not (3-8). Best non-conference wins are Stony Brook and Wake Forest?
#37 William & Mary -- The Tribe's non-conference strength of schedule (SOS) is solid at #54. The problem is they haven't really beaten anyone; they have no non-conference wins over teams in the top 100.
#64 Wisconsin -- The Badgers have more top-100 wins than any other bubble team with 8. The 3-3 record vs. the top 50 doesn't hurt either, but losses like the one to Western Illinois could come back to haunt.
The 8 We're Taking Right Now?
Florida State, George Washington, Oregon State, and Wisconsin are the strongest of the 8. That leaves the "last 4 in", and we're going with Alabama, Cincinnati, Michigan, and Pitt.
