An interesting question and an interesting comparison.
Objectively, Collins is probably ahead of Pitino through year three, albeit slightly because the non-conference records are so hard to compare from one team to the next....so we should probably focus on the conference record. Collins has a slight lead that will likely grow by the end of this year.
In my opinion, the roster make-up is better at Northwestern today. The junior and senior classes are significantly better at Northwestern than they are at Minnesota. That is at least partially on the prior coaches and of course roster management of the current coaches. Collins wins there.
Collins also had a much better year one recruiting when you consider Law/McIntosh/Lindsey/Skelley against Mason/Martin/Konate/Diedhiou. Frankly, it's not even very close.
But then the last two recruiting cycles I prefer the classes that the Gophers signed. So I would fully expect the win/loss gap to close moving forward if our guy can coach because we lose less and gain more over the next couple years.
If you look solely at record (which is the bottom line, I get it) it is getting harder every day to defend Pitino. But I'm still holding out hope not based on the negative trend line exhibited by the wins and losses as you pointed out, but on the positive trend line exhibited by the recruiting improvements over the last three years.
Expectations will rise (as they should) and results will need to follow.
