Jordan Murphy is among very elite company

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cjbfbp

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Jordan Murphy's performance to date places him among a very elite group of freshmen. To understand how elite, read on.

Murphy's player efficiency rating (PER) ranks 8th nationally among freshmen who have played at least 9 games and have averaged at least 20 minutes per game. His PER tops all Big Ten freshmen who meet that criteria.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with PER, it is the most widely used measure of composite performance. Basically, it is increased by good measures, reduced by bad measures, and the overall rating is standardized. In the NBA, PER is standardized so that an average player receives a PER of 15. However, a freshman with a rating of 15 would have to be considered pretty good for a freshman. PER is not a volume measure. A player playing lots of minutes can have a low PER and a player playing limited garbage time minutes can have a high one. That's why I limited the sample to players who have played in a minimum number of games with a minimum number of minutes played per game.

Murphy's current PER is 27.2. The national freshman leader is Ben Simmons of LSU with a rating of 32; Simmons is expected to be the #1 NBA draft pick this summer. #2 in the Big Ten (11th nationally) is Indiana's Thomas Bryant with a rating of 25.7.

A fuller picture of Murphy's elite freshman peer group can be obtained with a little historical reference. The Sports Reference database includes PER ratings for seasons 2009-10 to the present. I queried freshmen who obtained a PER rating of 25 or more over at least 25 games with an average of at least 20 minutes per game from the 2009-10 season through the 2014-15 season. Here are the results:

1) Over that time span, 26 qualifying freshmen have achieved a PER of 25 or more over their completed freshmen seasons.

2) Of these 26, 4 are still playing college basketball (although one of those currently is in limbo).

3) Of the remaining 22, 17 are in the NBA. Here are those 17 with their freshmen season PER ratings:

2014-15

Karl Anthony Towns (31.4)
Jahlil Okafor (30.7)
D'Angelo Russell (26.6)
Myles Turner (25.5)

2013-14

Jabari Parker (28.4)
Joel Embiid (28.2)

2012-13

Anthony Bennett (28.3)
RJ Hunter (25.5)

2011-12

Anthony Davis (35.1)
Cody Zeller (31.3)

2010-11

Jared Sullinger (30.3)
Terrence Jones (25.5)

2009-10

DeMarcus Cousins (34.2)
Hassan Whiteside (29.1)
Alec Burks (25.8)
C.J. McCollum (25.8)
Derrick Williams (25.8)

I would have liked to search over the first 11 games of the freshman's career but the database did not allow me to do that. More likely than not, Murphy's PER will decline in conference play, but if he can maintain something pretty close to what he has now, he will rank among a very elite group of freshman performers. The eye test told us that Murphy was very good but this measure confirms that judged by his performance to date, Murphy is the best freshman performer this school has recruited in a very long time.
 

Good stuff cjbfbp, really enjoyed the analysis. Thanks for putting it together.

Murphy has been far and away the best part of the season so far. He doesn't have a crazy vertical, but his timing and positing is about as good as it gets. He will be even more difficult to match up with next season when he is in together with Lynch, who will require attention from opposing teams as well.

Go Gophers!!
 


BleedGopher said:
Good stuff cjbfbp, really enjoyed the analysis. Thanks for putting it together.

Murphy has been far and away the best part of the season so far. He doesn't have a crazy vertical, but his timing and positing is about as good as it gets. He will be even more difficult to match up with next season when he is in together with Lynch, who will require attention from opposing teams as well.

Go Gophers!!
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Thanks! I enjoyed doing it and seeing how good he really has been to date. You're right, his vertical doesn't seem so spectacular but I doubt Charles Barkley's was either. Like Barkley, Murphy jumps very "quick" rather than very "high."
 

I was actually going to start a Jordan Murphy appreciation thread, with some of his stats and where he ranks, but ya beat me to it. Anyways, here are some of his rankings in various categories:

#1 overall in the Big Ten in total Reb%
#2 overall in the Big Ten in Rebounds Per Game
#5 overall in the Big Ten in Freshman scoring
#7 overall in the Big Ten in Player Efficiency Rating
#20 overall in the country in total Reb%
 


i dont expect him to sustain this level as he enters b1g season, but maybe the confidence he has built in non-con will translate into greater success in b1g. he seems to have a good first step off the dribble as well (one play last night where he caught, jab stepped, and attacked on one dribble from free throw line). obviously an elite rebounder to this point. hustle and having a nose for the ball is generally a skill that seems to translate. looking forward to seeing how he adjusts to stiffer competition.

either way, extremely impressive. thanks for posting.
 

DeathClutch said:
I was actually going to start a Jordan Murphy appreciation thread, with some of his stats and where he ranks, but ya beat me to it. Anyways, here are some of his rankings in various categories:

#1 overall in the Big Ten in total Reb%
#2 overall in the Big Ten in Rebounds Per Game
#5 overall in the Big Ten in Freshman scoring
#7 overall in the Big Ten in Player Efficiency Rating
#20 overall in the country in total Reb%
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Yes, he's second in the Big Ten in total rebounds despite only averaging 21.7 minutes per game. If his numbers were extended to 40 minutes per game, he would average 18.9 points and 15.7 rebounds per game. The one thing he needs to improve offensively is his free throw shooting because right now he is getting to the free throw line at a higher rate than anyone else on the team.
 

Very good post. It will be interesting to see what his conference PER is. His numbers as a freshman are already very similar to Mbakwe's if you account for minutes played.
 

I suppose this may be for a different topic, but how many years will Murphy play at Minnesota, if he keeps up these numbers?
 




MennoSota said:
I suppose this may be for a different topic, but how many years will Murphy play at Minnesota, if he keeps up these numbers?
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Let's enjoying it a bit and celebrate a great player on the Gophers team, Ok. Great get get for Patino, he's proving to be a pretty solid recruiter. Cjbfpb - great post, thanks.
 






cjbfbp said:
Not so crazy. I know he is undersized for an NBA forward, but still. Kenneth Faried wasn't much taller.
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I don't think the idea of him playing in the NBA is crazy, I think that it's classic gopherhole that a guy can go from 3/4 star recruit to possible early entrant in the NBA draft over the course of 5 solid games.

Its like how we had Pitino leaving here for Kentucky the second Cal thought about going to the NBA in Pitino's first year.
 

Murphy will be a joy to watch for four years. He needs more players around him. But I think he will get those players because Pitino is proving to be a good recruiter. Now if only Pitino knew how to coach defense.
 

Winasota Gopher said:
I don't think the idea of him playing in the NBA is crazy, I think that it's classic gopherhole that a guy can go from 3/4 star recruit to possible early entrant in the NBA draft over the course of 5 solid games.
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Those stars don't mean as much once the actual playing starts. Right now he's playing better than some 5 star freshmen (and his rating is over 11 games). In case you haven't noticed, he's developed into the apparent best player on the team over the last five or six games.
 

Winasota Gopher said:
I don't think the idea of him playing in the NBA is crazy, I think that it's classic gopherhole that a guy can go from 3/4 star recruit to possible early entrant in the NBA draft over the course of 5 solid games.

Its like how we had Pitino leaving here for Kentucky the second Cal thought about going to the NBA in Pitino's first year.
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I thought I qualified the thought with the use of the word, if.
I know the sample size is small, but the thought is intriguing, if Murphy can sustain these numbers. What if?
 


cjbfbp said:
Those stars don't mean as much once the actual playing starts. Right now he's playing better than some 5 star freshmen (and his rating is over 11 games). In case you haven't noticed, he's developed into the apparent best player on the team over the last five or six games.
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I noticed.

What point are you trying to make?
 

Section201 said:
And he does not start, why?
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That's an excellent question. It DOES matter who starts. In case people didn't notice, the team started slowly again in Wednesday's game, couldn't play interior defense and got behind. Do we really want to put ourselves in that position early in every game?
 

Bad Gopher said:
That's an excellent question. It DOES matter who starts. In case people didn't notice, the team started slowly again in Wednesday's game, couldn't play interior defense and got behind. Do we really want to put ourselves in that position early in every game?
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Agree.

I didn't like Pitino's answer when he was posed that question. He gave the standard answer, "Why mess with it if it's working?"

It's working? Really? You serious, Clark?

Yes, Murphy's individual numbers are great, but the team number is what matters the most. That team number is 6-5 against a less than stellar slate of non-conference opponents. Get your most productive player in the starting lineup.
 

cjbfbp said:
Those stars don't mean as much once the actual playing starts. Right now he's playing better than some 5 star freshmen (and his rating is over 11 games). In case you haven't noticed, he's developed into the apparent best player on the team over the last five or six games.
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I'll agree with that. Everyone's star is zero once you get on campus. I think what hurt's Murphy at the next level is his height. At 6'6" he could potentially be shorter than our two guard next year. Not saying he can't get there, Dennis rodman and obviously Charles Barkley had successful careers despite their lack of height. Sir Charles won an MVP award I believe. I think he will have to develop a better outside game to make it.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Agree.

I didn't like Pitino's answer when he was posed that question. He gave the standard answer, "Why mess with it if it's working?"

It's working? Really? You serious, Clark?

Yes, Murphy's individual numbers are great, but the team number is what matters the most. That team number is 6-5 against a less than stellar slate of non-conference opponents. Get your most productive player in the starting lineup.
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Murphy played 31 minutes last night, he plays starter minutes. I think that qualifies as getting your best player on the court. Anyways me thinks either King or Konate will come out of the starting five eventually for Murphy.
 

bemidjigopher said:
Murphy played 31 minutes last night, he plays starter minutes. I think that qualifies as getting your best player on the court. Anyways me thinks either King or Konate will come out of the starting five eventually for Murphy.
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Exactly. So why not start him? A game can be lost in the first few minutes, so start your best player.

Agree that he'll be starting soon, and it should be Konate coming off the bench.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Exactly. So why not start him? A game can be lost in the first few minutes, so start your best player.

Agree that he'll be starting soon, and it should be Konate coming off the bench.
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I dont think it's that simple. If your rotation has some talent coming off the court and you're trying to balance that and you need to have a solid player on the court as you cycle through your rotation it might make sense to have Murphy not starting. Now does he have to do that with Murphy or could he find another way to provide that same balance on the roster throughout his rotation?

It is definatly odd to have, what we all believe, is your best player not on the court to start the game and to help set the feeling of the game.
 


Bad Gopher said:
That's an excellent question. It DOES matter who starts. In case people didn't notice, the team started slowly again in Wednesday's game, couldn't play interior defense and got behind. Do we really want to put ourselves in that position early in every game?
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So is the alternative then to start fast and crumble when he comes out so we can all complain how the team can't hold a lead?

When points are scored makes very little difference in a game. How many points total is usually what matters.
 

scher215 said:
So is the alternative then to start fast and crumble when he comes out so we can all complain how the team can't hold a lead?

When points are scored makes very little difference in a game. How many points total is usually what matters.
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You're probably right, but I'd be a bit curious to know if teams play with a different mentality if, for instance, they get down by double digits in the first half, and if that affects how well they play on either side of the ball. If you're down by 20 with 5 minutes left in the first half, do you get discouraged, pack it in, and end up only scoring 40 points in the game?

I remember some people mentioning the 2014 football game against Wisconsin where we got up 17-3, that we were close to going up 21-3 if not for a hands to the face penalty that resulted in us only being able to get a field goal instead of a touchdown. If we take that 21-3 lead, do we blow it open and end up winning the game 41-13 instead of losing?
 

We've been dying for a forward that could hold his own on the boards since Mbakwe, but Murphy shows unreal ability and nose for the ball. The other night he was 2 rebounds away from making the list of top single game rebounders (granted, there are a number tied at the bottom of the "top 10" who had 20). Not bad for a first semester freshman.
 

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