Thumbnail look at the top 4 1-loss teams

All rankings are from last week. Obviously, there will be some significant changes after tonight.

ALABAMA (10-1)
**Charleston Southern (9-2)
@ Mississippi State (8-3)
@ Georgia (8-3)
@ Texas A&M (8-3)
vs. #25 Wisconsin (8-3)
#15 LSU (7-3)
Tennessee (7-4)
Arkansas (6-5)
Middle Tennessee (6-5)
Louisiana-Monroe (1-10)

Record of All Opponents: 76-44 (63.3%)
Record of Non-Conference Opponents: 24-20 (54.5%)
Record vs. Current Top 25: 2-1
Record vs. Bowl Eligible Teams: 7-1
Road/Neutral Wins vs. Top 25: vs. #25 Wisconsin
Loss: Ole Miss (8-3)

MICHIGAN STATE (10-1)
@ #3 Ohio State (10-1)
@ #12 Michigan (9-2)
#23 Oregon (8-3)
Air Force (8-3)
@ Western Michigan (6-5)
Central Michigan (6-5)
Indiana (5-6)
@ Rutgers (4-7)
Purdue (2-9)
Maryland (2-9)

Record of All Opponents: 65-56 (53.7%)
Record of Non-Conference Opponents: 28-16 (63.6%)
Record vs. Current Top 25: 3-0
Record vs. Bowl Eligible Teams: 6-0
Road/Neutral Wins vs. Top 25: @ #3 Ohio State, @ #12 Michigan
Loss: @ Nebraska (5-6)

NOTRE DAME (10-1)
#16 Navy (9-1)
@ Temple (9-2)
@ Pitt (8-3)
USC (7-4)
Texas (4-6)
@ Virginia (4-7)
vs. Boston College (3-8)
Georgia Tech (3-8)
Wake Forest (3-8)
Massachusetts (2-9)

Record of All Opponents: 63-56 (52.9%)
Record of Non-ACC Opponents: 31-22 (58.5%)
Record vs. Current Top 25: 1-1
Record vs. Bowl Eligible Teams: 4-1
Road/Neutral Wins vs. Top 25: none
Loss: @ #1 Clemson (11-0)

OKLAHOMA (10-1)
@ #10 Baylor (9-1)
#18 TCU (9-2)
@ Tennessee (7-4)
West Virginia (6-4)
Texas Tech (6-5)
Akron (6-5)
Tulsa (5-6)
@ Kansas State (4-6)
Iowa State (3-8)
@ Kansas (0-11)

Record of All Opponents: 59-58 (50.4%)
Record of Non-Conference Opponents: 18-15 (54.5%)
Record vs. Current Top 25: 2-0
Record vs. Bowl Eligible Teams: 6-0
Road/Neutral Wins vs. Top 25: @ #10 Baylor
Loss: vs. Texas (4-6)

**Denotes FCS opponent

Thanks for the interesting breakdown. A lot of it can go to hell in a hand basket, but if it plays out like it should, It should be:

Alabama - Defeats Auburn/Florida
Clemson - Defeats SC and wina ACC title game
Notre Dame - defeats Stanford, and.......

If Iowa and MSU win this week, the winner of the Big Ten title game
or
Oklahoma (provided they defeat Oklahoma St.).
or
Baylor, it they defeat TCU and Iowa, MSU and Oklahoma lose this week
or
Ohio St., if they beat Michigan, MSU loses and they beat Iowa.

If Iowa wins out, I can't see them being left out. If Michigan St. and Oklahoma win out it will be one of those two.

I just glanced over this, so I welcome any corrections to my thinking.

Should be a fun weekend of football.

You forgot that according to the SEC Network, Charleston Southern is ranked #8 in the country.

balds said:

Thanks for the interesting breakdown. A lot of it can go to hell in a hand basket, but if it plays out like it should, It should be:

Alabama - Defeats Auburn/Florida
Clemson - Defeats SC and wina ACC title game
Notre Dame - defeats Stanford, and.......

If Iowa and MSU win this week, the winner of the Big Ten title game
or
Oklahoma (provided they defeat Oklahoma St.).
or
Baylor, it they defeat TCU and Iowa, MSU and Oklahoma lose this week
or
Ohio St., if they beat Michigan, MSU loses and they beat Iowa.

If Iowa wins out, I can't see them being left out. If Michigan St. and Oklahoma win out it will be one of those two.

I just glanced over this, so I welcome any corrections to my thinking.

Should be a fun weekend of football.

Click to expand...

If Iowa or Michigan St. win out, they're in. It's between Notre Dame and Oklahoma if they win out for the last spot if Clemson and Alabama also win out.

leadpipegopher said:

If Iowa or Michigan St. win out, they're in. It's between Notre Dame and Oklahoma if they win out for the last spot if Clemson and Alabama also win out.

Click to expand...

Why is it a foregone conclusion that Alabama is in?

Updated with tonight's rankings: If resumes matter, one wonders why is 'Bama #2?

Interesting that Alabama has the least top-25 wins of these 4 teams, and two less than Michigan State, who has two road wins over top-10 opponents.

#2 ALABAMA (10-1)
**Charleston Southern (9-2)
@ #21 Mississippi State (8-3)
@ Georgia (8-3)
@ Texas A&M (8-3)
vs. Wisconsin (8-3)
LSU (7-3)
Tennessee (7-4)
Arkansas (6-5)
Middle Tennessee (6-5)
Louisiana-Monroe (1-10)

Record of All Opponents: 76-44 (63.3%)
Record of Non-Conference Opponents: 24-20 (54.5%)
Record vs. Current Top 25: 1-1
Record vs. Bowl Eligible Teams: 7-1
Road Wins vs. Top 25: @ #21 Mississippi State
Loss: #18 Ole Miss (8-3)

#3 OKLAHOMA (10-1)
@ #7 Baylor (9-1)
#19 TCU (9-2)
@ Tennessee (7-4)
West Virginia (6-4)
Texas Tech (6-5)
Akron (6-5)
Tulsa (5-6)
@ Kansas State (4-6)
Iowa State (3-8)
@ Kansas (0-11)

Record of All Opponents: 59-58 (50.4%)
Record of Non-Conference Opponents: 18-15 (54.5%)
Record vs. Current Top 25: 2-0
Record vs. Bowl Eligible Teams: 6-0
Road Wins vs. Top 25: @ #7 Baylor
Loss: vs. Texas (4-6)

#5 MICHIGAN STATE (10-1)
@ #8 Ohio State (10-1)
@ #10 Michigan (9-2)
#17 Oregon (8-3)
Air Force (8-3)
@ Western Michigan (6-5)
Central Michigan (6-5)
Indiana (5-6)
@ Rutgers (4-7)
Purdue (2-9)
Maryland (2-9)

Record of All Opponents: 65-56 (53.7%)
Record of Non-Conference Opponents: 28-16 (63.6%)
Record vs. Current Top 25: 3-0
Record vs. Bowl Eligible Teams: 6-0
Road Wins vs. Top 25: @ #8 Ohio State, @ #10 Michigan
Loss: @ Nebraska (5-6)

#6 NOTRE DAME (10-1)
#15 Navy (9-1)
@ #25 Temple (9-2)
@ Pitt (8-3)
USC (7-4)
Texas (4-6)
@ Virginia (4-7)
vs. Boston College (3-8)
Georgia Tech (3-8)
Wake Forest (3-8)
Massachusetts (2-9)

Record of All Opponents: 63-56 (52.9%)
Record of Non-ACC Opponents: 31-22 (58.5%)
Record vs. Current Top 25: 2-1
Record vs. Bowl Eligible Teams: 4-1
Road Wins vs. Top 25: @ #25 Temple
Loss: @ #1 Clemson (11-0)

**Denotes FCS opponent

I can't see Alabama being left out if they win the ESPNSEC championship. They have the "best loss" out of them, MSU and Oklahoma.

balds said:

I can't see Alabama being left out if they win the ESPNSEC championship. They have the "best loss" out of them, MSU and Oklahoma.

Click to expand...

Agree 'Bama wouldn't be left out.

Just pointing out that it's assumed they're in as a 1-loss team, but there are at least a couple 1-loss teams who, arguably, have equal or better resumes. For example, based on the committee's own rankings, Sparty has 3 better wins (#8, 10, 17) than Alabama's best one (#21), and 2 of those came on the road.

Would be great if Auburn dumped 'em this weekend.

Does Florida get in if they beat Florida St. and Alabama? Obviously it may depend on what everyone else does. Just curious if others think a 1-loss SEC champion will be an automatic entry into the playoffs.

GophersInIowa said:

Does Florida get in if they beat Florida St. and Alabama? Obviously it may depend on what everyone else does. Just curious if others think a 1-loss SEC champion will be an automatic entry into the playoffs.

Click to expand...

Don't think Florida would be a lock. Alabama, yes.

Should be a fun final two weeks with many possible scenarios of intrigue, including:

Nebraska beats Iowa, Iowa beats Michigan St.
Penn St. beats MSU, Ohio St. beats Michigan and Iowa.
Stanford beats Notre Dame.
Alabama loses to Auburn or Florida.
Clemson somehow loses to SC or in ACC title game.
Oklahoma St. beats Oklahoma, Baylor beats TCU and some of the above shenanigans ensue, especially if it's a blowout. Remember how the lopsided score of the Big Ten Championship played a big role last year.

B1G title game

balds said:

Remember how the lopsided score of the Big Ten Championship played a big role last year.

Click to expand...

My suspicion is whoever Iowa plays, the B1G title game is going to be a really good one. I don't think there's much difference between Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Will be surprised if it's a rout like last year.