Early read on 2015-16 Gophers

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SelectionSunday

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I'm going with a 15-17 record. 9-3 in non-conference, 5-13 in B1G (11th place), 1-1 in Big Ten tourney.

What say you?

More on the Gophers, scheduling, early predictions, and more in our 1st edition of the 2015-16 Road to Selection Sunday in the next week or two.
 

I say I will go with what you say.
 

I too see 9-3 in non conference play but think they go 8-10 in the Big Ten. Overall (17-14) as they lose right away in the Big Ten tourney.
 


If there was an over/under bet on # of wins, I would take the under. I could be wrong, but I suspect this team will take some time to gell and for the young guys to learn to play together. I hope the team will improve as the season goes on, but I would be surprised if they win more than 12 or 13 games.

My biggest concern is (at least early in the season) - a lack of a go-to guy. when the game is on the line, and someone needs to make a play, who does the ball go to?
 



I think we are going to surprise a lot of people. Yes we are young, but I'd argue we not only have players that fit Pitino's system for the first time in his tenure, but also that we have more raw talent than we did with Tubby's leftovers. So I'm bullish based on the preseason expectations. Not saying we make the tournament or anything, but I would not be surprised if we were a bubble-ish team when it's all said in done.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
If there was an over/under bet on # of wins, I would take the under. I could be wrong, but I suspect this team will take some time to gell and for the young guys to learn to play together. I hope the team will improve as the season goes on, but I would be surprised if they win more than 12 or 13 games.

My biggest concern is (at least early in the season) - a lack of a go-to guy. when the game is on the line, and someone needs to make a play, who does the ball go to?
Click to expand...

Your optimism is amazing. I am looking for near 20 wins, a mediocre season for the Pitino era....


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

MadtownGopher said:
I think we are going to surprise a lot of people. Yes we are young, but I'd argue we not only have players that fit Pitino's system for the first time in his tenure, but also that we have more raw talent than we did with Tubby's leftovers. So I'm bullish based on the preseason expectations. Not saying we make the tournament or anything, but I would not be surprised if we were a bubble-ish team when it's all said in done.
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I hope you're right. I'm not seeing it. If Lynch and Fitz were playing this year, I'd be with you, but with them watching from the sidelines, I can't see a bubblish finish. At this stage, I'd be really pleased to see them improve as the season goes on and win the play in game at the BTT, and surprise one team and get into Friday play. I'm a bad prognosticator though.
 



Questions abound up front and that's my biggest worry. Yet I can't imagine Gophers will rebound even more poorly than last year. Bakery/Gaston Combo MUST be respectable. I really have high expectations about the guard play. 9-3 + 7-11 + 1-1 = 17-15 and optimism for 2016-17. Add 2 wins if center play yields 8 ppg and 9 rpg.
 

I think we will surprise a lot of people in terms of how we compete and are in games we shouldn't be but I think we will have trouble scoring when teams really lock in at the end. I'm gonna go with 6 BT wins (without looking at the schedule). The year after I'm going with 10 though.
 

Non- Conference 9-3
Losses- Butler, Miami, Ok State

Big Ten 8-10
at Ohio State- L
Michigan State- L
at Penn State- W
Northwestern- W
at Nebraska- W
Indiana- L
at Michigan- L
Illinois- W
Purdue- L
at Indiana- L
at Northwestern- L
Michigan- W
at Iowa- L
Maryland- L
Rutgers- W
at Illinois- L
Wisconsin- W
at Rutgers- W

BTT- 1-1

Overall Record-18-14
 

I think we are really well positioned for 2016/2017, but I don't think a lot of good things are going to happen to us this season. Reminds me of Clem the Gem's first season.
 




howieramone said:
I think we are really well positioned for 2016/2017, but I don't think a lot of good things are going to happen to us this season. Reminds me of Clem the Gem's first season.
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Clem's first season roster was far inferior to this squad. Burton would become great but was not much as a frosh, Newbern couldn't suit up and Coffey was strong but super raw. Kelvin Smith has some talent but was only present about 30% of the time, Holmgren had no knees, Gaffney was the best player,Terrence Williams, Connell Lewis, Hanson and Woods. That was really ugly.
 

Non- Conference 9-3
Losses- Butler, Miami, Ok State

Big Ten 4 - 14
at Ohio State- L
Michigan State- L
at Penn State- L
Northwestern- W
at Nebraska- L
Indiana- L
at Michigan- L
Illinois- W
Purdue- L
at Indiana- L
at Northwestern- L
Michigan- L
at Iowa- L
Maryland- L
Rutgers- W
at Illinois- L
Wisconsin- L
at Rutgers- W

I think every team in the Big Ten has more experienced guards than we do. This is not the year for high expectations on wins. This year is about the underclassman trying to learn how to play w the big boys. Whoever said 8 wins in the big10 is smoking something.
 

Holy Man said:
I hope you're right. I'm not seeing it. If Lynch and Fitz were playing this year, I'd be with you, but with them watching from the sidelines, I can't see a bubblish finish. At this stage, I'd be really pleased to see them improve as the season goes on and win the play in game at the BTT, and surprise one team and get into Friday play. I'm a bad prognosticator though.
Click to expand...

Possible wild cards for a surprising year: decent to strong guard play is possible, and even with Lynch and Fitz waiting, Lynch and Fitz get to practice with the guys day in and day out helping them improve and at least toughening them up for Big Ten play.

The wildest card is that some of these guys will want to be more intense then ever if not for the schedule but for the three joining the team next year. If any player wants minutes next year he'd best try and stay one step ahead of next years recruits.
 

You have to be really, really bad to just win 4 or 5 conference games. I would think that if you are predicting they'll win 4 or 5 conference games, you'd also predict a slip up or two in non-conference play. Usually teams that finish that poorly in conference play have a bad loss or two (ex last year Penn State lost to Charlotte, Nebraska lost to Incarnate Word and Hawaii) before they hit conference play.

I feel like the Gophers will lose a real bad one this year (non-conference home win streak snapped), but I hope that we see a team that doesn't even resemble the squad that took that bad loss by February.
 


No not really bad, we just play in a really good conference. The Big10 has 6 teams in the pre season top 25 and that doesn't include unranked Ohio St., and Iowa. Northwestern is no longer a push over. This young team will get the stuffing beat out em by some very good, mature, tournament teams!

If the Gophers win more than 4 or 5 games in the Big 10 this year, they have overachieved.
 

I can't believe we lost to a team who lost to a school named Incarnate Word. I didn't know that happened.

EG#9 said:
You have to be really, really bad to just win 4 or 5 conference games. I would think that if you are predicting they'll win 4 or 5 conference games, you'd also predict a slip up or two in non-conference play. Usually teams that finish that poorly in conference play have a bad loss or two (ex last year Penn State lost to Charlotte, Nebraska lost to Incarnate Word and Hawaii) before they hit conference play.

I feel like the Gophers will lose a real bad one this year (non-conference home win streak snapped), but I hope that we see a team that doesn't even resemble the squad that took that bad loss by February.
Click to expand...
 

EG#9 said:
You have to be really, really bad to just win 4 or 5 conference games.
Click to expand...

Not necessarily. Depends on the strength of the conference in a particular year. Penn State won only 4 regular season conference games last season but they didn't look really bad to me. They then won 2 in the Big Ten tournament.
 

I'm guessing 15-15 with a ceiling of 17-13
 

I think somehow they find a way to have a winning record...so a minimum of 16 wins. However, we don't have enough established players to overcome significant injuries.
 

Undefeated and a National Title!!!!!
 

EG#9 said:
Usually teams that finish that poorly in conference play have a bad loss or two (ex last year Penn State lost to Charlotte, Nebraska lost to Incarnate Word and Hawaii) before they hit conference play.

I feel like the Gophers will lose a real bad one this year (non-conference home win streak snapped), but I hope that we see a team that doesn't even resemble the squad that took that bad loss by February.
Click to expand...

I watched Charlotte during early season tournaments the last two years and they had players of a high enough caliber (particularly upfront) to beat a Big Ten team. They also beat the Michigan team that advanced to the regional final during an early season tournament game in 2013. Charlotte's mediocre record the last two years surprised me a bit. There must have been issues on that team as a number of their players (including some of their best) transferred after last season. The center from that team (Mike Thorne) is a grad transfer at a Big Ten school (Illinois I think) this season.

As far as the "bad" home nonconference loss, I'd identify South Dakota State as the best possibility.
 

watertown 1987 guy n said:
Non- Conference 9-3
Losses- Butler, Miami, Ok State

Big Ten 4 - 14
at Ohio State- L
Michigan State- L
at Penn State- L
Northwestern- W
at Nebraska- L
Indiana- L
at Michigan- L
Illinois- W
Purdue- L
at Indiana- L
at Northwestern- L
Michigan- L
at Iowa- L
Maryland- L
Rutgers- W
at Illinois- L
Wisconsin- L
at Rutgers- W

I think every team in the Big Ten has more experienced guards than we do. This is not the year for high expectations on wins. This year is about the underclassman trying to learn how to play w the big boys. Whoever said 8 wins in the big10 is smoking something.
Click to expand...

I think the reason we win more then four games is we have a favorable road schedule. Bot saying we win all four, but Rutgers, Nebraska, Penn State and Northwestern on the road are all winnable games. Michigan state and Maryland at home will be tough. Northwestern and Rutgers at home are winnable, Illinois at home, Wisconsin with their roster turnover as well is winnable at home. Michigan will be a tough one as well, Indiana a wild card but they have a great starting five Purdue is a good team, but we seem to play exciting games with them know matter where the game is played. I think four is a worse case scenario, eight probably best case. It'll be fun to watch this team gel through out the season. There's always a couple of upsets, last year we beat two NCAA teams on the road, one went to the final four, when's the last time that happened, 97?
 

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