Sagarin Predictions: Week 4

Or, how winning a game makes everything seem worse.

Ok, maybe not really. The numbers don't hate us THAT much more than last week. We're favorites in three remaining games and have a couple of toss-ups on the schedule - but winning the west is looking very difficult at the moment.

Northwestern and Wisconsin are both double-digit favorites in the formula this week, and Iowa isn't far behind. Big wins last weekend (either by opponent or by margin) certainly helped these team's standings.

Lots could change by the start of the conference season, but right now things look a bit gloomy. Here's hoping the Ohio game changes the mood!

I'm using three lines this year - the GOLDEN_MEAN spreads, the PREDICTOR spreads, and the RECENT spreads, found here.

Last week's post can be found here.

vs TCU L
@ Colorado State W
vs Kent State W
vs Ohio (-8.5, -6.5, -11.5)
@ Northwestern (+13, +16, +9.5)
@ Purdue (-8.5, -5, -9.5)
vs Nebraska (+2.5, +7.5, +2)
vs Michigan (+2.5, +6, +1.5)
@ Ohio State (+22, +22.5, +21)
@ Iowa (+10, +10.5, +8.5)
vs Illinois (-4, +3.5, -7)
vs Wisconsin (+9.5, +14, +9)

Predicted Record [based on an average of the three models] 5-7 (2-6)

Likely wins (>6 point difference [average] in favor of Minnesota): vs Ohio, @ Purdue
Likely toss-ups (within 6 points [average]): vs Nebraska, vs Michigan, vs Illinois
Likely losses (>6 point difference [average] in favor of opponent): @ Northwestern, @ Ohio State, @ Iowa, vs Wisconsin

interesting to see. thanks for posting.

only 4 point favs vs illinois at home?! i hope its a bigger spread than that come kick off.

Go4 said:

interesting to see. thanks for posting.

only 4 point favs vs illinois at home?! i hope its a bigger spread than that come kick off.

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My guess, given the wide variety of spreads in the Illinois game (anywhere from -7 to +3.5) is that the numbers don't know how to treat the Illini yet because of their inconsistency. They put up huge numbers against Kent State, winning 52-3 ... and then went out and laid a complete egg against North Carolina last weekend. As with all teams, more data will mean a better picture, but especially so in Illinois' case.

The truth for them is probably somewhere in the middle, but right now I wouldn't put us much more than 4-point favorites if the game were next week.

Spread should be tighter. It's apparent that Kill isn't going to open things up a whole lot more Saturday than he did against Kent if we go up 10-14 and the defense is doing their thing. We could see RUTM part 2 for the last 25 min. or so giving Ohio chances to close the gap late.

Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0 said:

Spread should be tighter. It's apparent that Kill isn't going to open things up a whole lot more Saturday than he did against Kent if we go up 10-14 and the defense is doing their thing. We could see RUTM part 2 for the last 25 min. or so giving Ohio chances to close the gap late.

Click to expand...

gonna be a long week.