Dallas Morning News TCU Horned Frogs Football Preview

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http://interactives.dallasnews.com/2015/college-football-preview/tcu-preview.html

WORST-CASE SCENARIO...

After months of hype and high expectations, TCU’s defense struggles to get off the field in the opener, keeping the offense from getting going and leading to a massive upset loss in a low-scoring affair with Minnesota. The Frogs get back on track with four wins, but after struggling in out-of-state away games last year, leaving the state of Texas haunts the Frogs again. With the defense unable to find the right pieces at linebacker and in the secondary, the Frogs’ playoff hopes are ended in October with a road loss to Kansas State. The defensive issues put the pressure on the offense when the Frogs face the league’s pass-heavy teams, and trips to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma end in disaster. Facing a Big 12-leading Baylor team at home, TCU can’t keep up and gives up another 61 points, ending the regular season 7-5 with some serious disappointment.
 

Gee... This seems like just the kind of in-depth coverage our Gophers get from the Twin Cities sports media... not.
 

This is what we do. Run the ball, take time off the clock, and pound the defense into submission. Its not pretty, but its effective. Against TCU it is paramount. Keep the TCU offense on the bench for long periods.
 


You have to realize, TCU is in a small market where they don't have an NFL team, an NBA team, an NHL team and a MLB team to cover.

Oh wait. That's not it.

Minnesotans are just too happy to believe that Reusse and Souhan are talented, not worthless hacks and just don't realize that the POV of the star and sickle has alternatives that aren't propagated by Sid Hartman.

The news media as a whole in Minnesota sucks, and wishing it to be different won't make it so.

In fairness, newspapers in Texas run details like this about their high school teams.

Football is a whole 'nother issue in Texas.

That doesn't mean the twin cities fish wrapping devices don't still suck.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 


They do make a few good points, Minnesota is catching them at a good time, early in the season and at Minnesota, before all their new defensive starters have a chance to gel.
 

husker70 said:
This is what we do. Run the ball, take time off the clock, and pound the defense into submission. Its not pretty, but its effective. Against TCU it is paramount. Keep the TCU offense on the bench for long periods.
Click to expand...



Rewatching that game, it's not pretty. We had possession for 35 minutes of the game and ran for a 2.5 yard average.

Have we been run heavy because that's always been Jerry's identity, or was it due to lack of playmakers at receiver/QB, or to help protect a thin defense without quality depth? Perhaps with the infusion of talent at WR, upperclassmen at QB and starting WR, TE injuries and lack of experience, and (purportedly) quality depth in the defense it's time to take the training wheels off and open up the spread attack a little more this year. I don't feel like we have a shut down defense eg Alabama, TCU, OSU (when on) to lean on. We need to score points. We need to be more balanced.

Get them moving sideline to sideline, tire them out by the second half. Run Rodrick down their throats to break morale. I feel like we need to break our mold a little bit, break tendencies, excite the team, excite the fans.

Sure, it could implode and we could lose 82-7. Nobody is expecting us to win this game anyway. If we're playing to win rather than keep it relatively close we will have to score some points. as good as our defense is, I'm not optimistic we can totally shut down an experienced offense. We're not going to run up and down the field on these guys unless their new D is far worse than expected.
 


Pompous Elitist said:
Rewatching that game, it's not pretty. We had possession for 35 minutes of the game and ran for a 2.5 yard average.

Have we been run heavy because that's always been Jerry's identity, or was it due to lack of playmakers at receiver/QB, or to help protect a thin defense without quality depth? Perhaps with the infusion of talent at WR, upperclassmen at QB and starting WR, TE injuries and lack of experience, and (purportedly) quality depth in the defense it's time to take the training wheels off and open up the spread attack a little more this year. I don't feel like we have a shut down defense eg Alabama, TCU, OSU (when on) to lean on. We need to score points. We need to be more balanced.
Click to expand...

Here is "passing yards as percentage of total yards" under Kill his last 8 coaching years. (First four were NI, last four were MN). Looks to be the game plan. 60/40-ish run once the bricks are laid. Source: CollegeFootballReference.com

2rho09w.png
 



Dallas morning news. This is the equivalent of an Iowa newspaper writing about the gophers . SMU biased and anti-TCU.
 

hornedfrog86 said:
Dallas morning news. This is the equivalent of an Iowa newspaper writing about the gophers . SMU biased and anti-TCU.
Click to expand...

You think they hate TCU? Ah, okay..:rolleyes:

2 Frogs will score the most points in the nation. TCU finished second in the nation in scoring last season with 46.5 points per game. Only rival Baylor scored more points on average (48.2) than the Horned Frogs last year. That came in just the first season under the control of co-offensive coordinators Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie. With both coaches back for year two, as well as 10 starters on this side of the ball, the offense should be even better this time ...

5 Horned Frogs reach College Football Playoff. If a few plays go different in a 61-58 loss to Baylor last October, this point would be about returning to the College Football Playoff and possibly defending a national title. TCU had the talent and ability to reach the tournament last season, but things didn’t fall the right way and the Frogs were left out thanks to a variety of factors, including their own inability to hold a lead. If they can largely repeat their performance from a year ago, things should fall a bit different and the Frogs will have their shot..

NOV. 27 VS. BAYLOR
Last meeting: Baylor 61, TCU 58 on Oct. 11, 2014

Breakdown: Looking back at TCU's 2014 season, there were few moments the Horned Frogs weren't in control, and fewer in which they looked overmatched. Among those moments were the final 11 minutes of last year's Revivalry matchup with Baylor. A back-and-forth game the Frogs seemed to be in control of, TCU allowed Baylor to score the final 24 points thanks to poor defensive play, questionable playcalling and controversial officiating, saddling TCU with its only blemish of the season. For some, the loss to Baylor is what defined the season, and earning some revenge in front of a home crowd would definitely help heal a few wounds.

Key player: Trevone Boykin. Gary Patterson mostly took the ball out of Boykin's hands in the final quarter of the loss last year, attempting to run the clock with his running backs. When Boykin did get to throw, it was in obvious situations and defended well. With a playoff berth and conference title on the line, the Frogs' best player will be handed the keys down the stretch.

Prediction: "Last game of the year, Brent. Can't hold anything back now." There's no reason to expect this one to be much different than last season, and not much separates these teams. But TCU does hold one advantage -- this is its final game of the regular season. Knowing that one win is all that's needed for a possible CFP berth, the Frogs leave it all on the field while the coaches go deep into the playbook to pull off a late win. TCU 48, Baylor 42.

Final record: 11-1 (8-1 Big 12)..

THE VERDICT

The newcomers on defense will be an issue, but they won’t cost the Frogs in the opener. The offense will be better as the playbook opens up in its second season. The toughest tests of the season will be a pair of trips north to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. If the Frogs trip up, it will likely be in one of those games. Another 11-1 regular season puts the Frogs in good position for a CFP berth, if things fall the right way around the country.
 


BarnBoy said:
Here is "passing yards as percentage of total yards" under Kill his last 8 coaching years. (First four were NI, last four were MN). Looks to be the game plan. 60/40-ish run once the bricks are laid. Source: CollegeFootballReference.com

2rho09w.png
Click to expand...

Those numbers look really suspect. Can you link me right to your number source?

Here are the pass/run numbers by year from cfbstats.com

2014 MN 254 599 70% rush
2013 MN 267 586 69%
2012 MN 330 517 61%
2011 MN 274 470 63%

2010 NIU 329 581 64%
2009 NIU 274 530 66%
2008 NIU 312 501 62%

I'm not saying go Air Raid. A little bit more balance would be nice. Do we want to be Wisconsin, or Michigan State (serious question)? Michigan state is more around 50-60% rushing in recent years, with a strong defense. Unless we have a dominant rushing attack like Wisconsin (do we?) maybe we ought to mix it up more like MSU.
 




Pompous Elitist said:
...Nobody is expecting us to win this game anyway...
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Your post seems all over the place. Maybe you're just excited, like I am. But, in addition to me and 55% of GH Predict the Score entries, I think you'd have a hard time finding anyone in the locker room who DOESN'T expect to win.
 

killme said:
Your post seems all over the place. Maybe you're just excited, like I am. But, in addition to me and 55% of GH Predict the Score entries, I think you'd have a hard time finding anyone in the locker room who DOESN'T expect to win.
Click to expand...

I'm talking about anyone outside of the Gopherhole. On a national basis, nobody expects us to win this game. So why not gamble a little bit?

Do you have anything to add to the conversation here other than criticizing posts?

Are you a "tweeter" that can't formulate a complete thought beyond 140 characters? Confused by posts over 3 sentences long?
 


No worries. Also, I wasn't trying to make any point with this. The data makes sense. We are a run-oriented team. In years where Kill hasn't been as good, they are forced to pass more (e.g. playing from behind). I think you get at the real question of "what's ideal". I think Michigan State sounds good.

Sorry to derail the thread.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Do you have anything to add to the conversation here other than criticizing posts?
Click to expand...

Not trying to start a fight, Pompous One, nor was my intention to criticize your post. But, I do disagree with most (not all) of what you wrote.

JK's teams have always emphasized the run, but depending on the skill of the QB is not afraid to chuck it. I'm pretty sure we're going to be run heavy the next two seasons, since that's how this team was built. I do believe the talent at receiver is improved because JK says so, which will allow us to keep opponents more honest.

You said "get them moving sideline to sideline," "run Rodrick down their throats," and "break our mold" in the same paragraph. Those three phrases don't align, maybe even contradict.

The fans and the team will be excited. Part of any game plan generally includes breaking tendencies, but we are going to win by doing what we do well.

Finally, your last ppg is also confusing. If you're watching last year's game, that probably means you're pretty familiar with this program. Playing to win is always going to be JK's goal, never "keeping it close." Except, keeping it close and giving us a chance to win by making a couple of plays at the end is a strategy often employed when facing a formidable opponent. We are not going to get crazy and do anything that could turn into an 82-7 shellacking.

Oh, and our D did shut them down pretty well last year. I think Claeys is confident we can play with TCU.
 

I think we have the ability now to utilize short passes as a substitute for running between the tackles against one of the best front four in America. Take what the defense gives us.

Our passing routes last year were generally lower percentage throws into the intermediate area of the field, often into double or triple covered receivers. Mitch was put in a tough spot, and had defenders in his face most of the game.

I genuinely believe this is a situation where we may need a faster developing pass game to open up the run. I may be alone in that assessment, and I realize we don't have a deadly QB (or do we this season?) but I'd like to see us get the ball into the hands of our speedy playmakers. Let them try to make defenders miss.

None of this means abandoning the run game or the play action pass. Having a little more variety, giving Mitch some confidence, manipulating the safeties and linebackers.

Maybe the offensive line and tight ends will blow up their defensive front, Roderick and Co will run for 250 yards and I'll be laughing Friday morning.
 

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