Vegas odds and Gopher wins

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I need to get to Vegas! Over please!
 

Yea, I know we're Gopher homers and the range of possibilities is always larger than people like to think, but that does seem like a crazy line. It is interesting how many toss up type games there look to be with the tougher teams tending to be at home throughout the year.
 

Every single Gopher media outlet I've seen proclaims "Vegas" has set this line. How does not one person realize 5Dimes is an off-shore site? Where in Vegas can you get this line? I would love to know because I'd go throw money on it.
 


5.5 is an absurd line. Kill beat that number in every year but his first. Does anyone think this team is worse than Kill's second year team coming off of a 3-9 season?
 

Here is the full BT list:

Big Ten

Illinois: 3.5 (over -140, under +100)

Indiana: 6 (over +140, under -180)

Iowa: 7.5 (over -115, under -125)

Maryland: 4.5 (over -120, under -120)

Michigan: 7.5 (over -140, under +100)

Michigan State: 9.5 (over -140, under +100)

Minnesota: 5.5 (over -150, under +110)

Nebraska: 8 (over -120, under -120)

Northwestern: 6.5 (over +110, under -150)

Ohio State: 11 (over +100, under -140)

Penn State: 7.5 (over -135, under +105)

Purdue: 4 (over -145, under +105)

Rutgers: 5 (over -145, under +105)

Wisconsin: 10 (over +160, under -210)

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...mes-releases-2015-college-football-win-totals

Go Gophers!!
 

Looking over the projected win totals for the Big 10 Wisconsin's O/U total set at 10 is a bit high. One of only 4 teams in the Power 5 conference set for a double digit win total. Really striking is the payout spread with a $100 bet that wins you $160 for over but the under is a whopping -210. Does 5Dimes not realize Wisconsin has to play Northwestern?

Wish there was a way to parlay the over on the Gophers and the under on Wisconsin.
 

BleedGopher said:
Here is the full BT list:

Big Ten

Illinois: 3.5 (over -140, under +100)

Indiana: 6 (over +140, under -180)

Iowa: 7.5 (over -115, under -125)

Maryland: 4.5 (over -120, under -120)

Michigan: 7.5 (over -140, under +100)

Michigan State: 9.5 (over -140, under +100)

Minnesota: 5.5 (over -150, under +110)

Nebraska: 8 (over -120, under -120)

Northwestern: 6.5 (over +110, under -150)

Ohio State: 11 (over +100, under -140)

Penn State: 7.5 (over -135, under +105)

Purdue: 4 (over -145, under +105)

Rutgers: 5 (over -145, under +105)

Wisconsin: 10 (over +160, under -210)

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...mes-releases-2015-college-football-win-totals

Go Gophers!!
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This is stupid. It's not even money to bet either over or under. Look at the moneyline. You need to bet $150 to win $100 on the over. Just another trick by the sportsbooks to make money.
 



LesBolstad said:
This is stupid. It's not even money to bet either over or under. Look at the moneyline. You need to bet $150 to win $100 on the over. Just another way by the sportsbooks to get the fools to give them money.
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FIFY - They have the perfect business model. It is called we win you lose. Yet there are those that believe they are smarter. They love that.
 

sonnygarcia said:
Every single Gopher media outlet I've seen proclaims "Vegas" has set this line. How does not one person realize 5Dimes is an off-shore site? Where in Vegas can you get this line? I would love to know because I'd go throw money on it.
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Bookmaker and 5 dime own the market and put out lines first. Vegas usually follows suit but I don't know anyone that goes to Vegas anymore for sports betting unless they live there.
 

Killjoy said:
They have the perfect business model. It is called we win you lose.
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Unless you follow my buddy on twitter and get his free bets. Okay, for now it's only his record for MLB but he's 123-63 on his picks so far this year.
 





Killjoy said:
What's his secret?:rolleyes:
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He spends a lot of time studying sports betting. He and his running mate have massive spreadsheets for baseball breaking down pretty much everything. He's on a 6 month hot streak.
 

Unregistered User said:
He spends a lot of time studying sports betting. He and his running mate have massive spreadsheets for baseball breaking down pretty much everything. He's on a 6 month hot streak.
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I would say so. He might enjoy reading Dr.Z's Beat the Racetrack by William T. Ziemba & Donald B Hausch. It was actually based on a project funded by the Canadian government study on how if the the odds at the track are operate on math and economics principles. It then goes on and shows you how to recognize when the odds are in your favor. I use it and it works, but you need to do your homework and be disciplined. Sounds perfect for your friend.
 

If I could do a 3-team parlay: over on MN and Maryland and under on WI
 

Tough to find past odds for the Gophs (Looks like often only 30-35 teams get their o/u posted), but here's what I cobbled together for recent years:
Year, O/U, Actual Wins
2015: 5.5, unknown
2014: 6.5, 8
2013: 5.5, 8
2012: 5.5, 6
 

Ski U Master said:
Tough to find past odds for the Gophs (Looks like often only 30-35 teams get their o/u posted), but here's what I cobbled together for recent years:
Year, O/U, Actual Wins
2015: 5.5, unknown
2014: 6.5, 8
2013: 5.5, 8
2012: 5.5, 6
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Vegas loves fans who bet...its literally like taking money for babies.
 

Ski U Master said:
Year, O/U, Actual Wins
2015: 5.5, unknown
2014: 6.5, 8
2013: 5.5, 8
2012: 5.5, 6
Click to expand...

Thanks Ski U Master, for tracking these down. So, one thing we might be able to take away from this is that Vegas has consistently under-predicted Gopher total wins by 1.5 (2014), 2.5 (2013), and .5 (2012). So, I'm willing to "bet" that Vegas is correct again, and that based on their prediction of 5.5, we win 8 games!
 

Seems very light to me, but I can kind of see their point. OSU and TCU they see as guaranteed losses. They probably feel the same about WI. We barely beat Pur and NW at home, and now play both of them on the road, and they should be improved. We play at Iowa, and I can't see how anybody can see that as a sure win. We beat NEB on a great play by BBC, that's surely no guaranteed win. Although we play ILL at home, we got schooled by them for 3.5 quarters last year with their backup QB. AT CSU, a team that won 11 games last year, although they have a new coach, when we struggled mightily with MTSU in the second half. That's assuming we stay healthy. What if Leidner gets hurt? What if BBC and Murray get hurt? etc., etc.

I think this will be Kill's best team, and I think it will be his toughest schedule. It would be naive, in my opinion, to assume that we're guaranteed 6+ wins.
 

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