Curiously low over/under for wins

Donate To GopherHole
I'd break it down like this:

Good chance of winning: CSU, Kent State, Ohio, Michigan, Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois
Good chance of losing: TCU, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Toss up: Nebraska, Iowa

Assuming we split the toss ups, we're back at 8-4. Since there's probably a better chance of losing one of the 'should wins' than winning a 'should lose', I'd say 7.5 is a fair over-under. 5.5 is too low.
 


I'm guessing this was the site:

http://againstthenumber.com/atns-college-football-season-win-totals/

The dude claims to be a former oddsmaker. Looking at his numbers, it is fairly obvious to me why he is a former oddsmakers. He would lose money (a lot of it) if those over/under numbers actually hit the market. Some of them are absolutely insane. I've bolded the Big Ten teams.

Here are his over/under numbers for wins for 2015:


2015 College Football Season Win Totals…



Ohio State 11
Wisconsin 10
Marshall 10 Under -120
TCU 10 Under -120
Baylor 10 Under -120
Oregon 10 Under -130
Florida State 9.5 Over -120
Michigan State 9.5
UCLA 9.5
Boise State 9.5
Alabama 9.5 Under -120
Appalachian State 9
Notre Dame 9
Stanford 9
Oklahoma 9
Georgia 9 Under -120
Houston 8.5 Over -120
Clemson 8.5 Over -120
Auburn 8.5
Memphis 8.5
Ole Miss 8.5
Western Michigan 8.5 Under -120
BYU 8.5 Under -120
Arizona State 8.5 Under -120
Arkansas 8.5 Under -120
Northern Illinois 8.5 Under -120
North Carolina 8.5 Under -130
Virginia Tech 8 Over -125
LSU 8
West Virginia 8
Louisiana Tech 8 Under -120
Louisiana Lafayette 8 Under -120
Nebraska 8 Under -120
USC 8 Under -120
Utah State 8 Under -130
Georgia Tech 7.5 Over -120
Colorado State 7.5 Over -120
Tennessee 7.5
San Diego State 7.5
Cincinnati 7.5
Missouri 7.5
Navy 7.5
Iowa 7.5
Penn State 7.5
North Carolina State 7.5
Utah 7.5
Akron 7.5
Western Kentucky 7.5
Florida 7.5 Under -120
Rice 7.5 Under -120
Michigan 7.5 Under -120
Georgia Southern 7.5 Under -120
Arkansas State 7.5 Under -120
Texas A&M 7.5 Under -120
Arizona 7 Over -125
Louisville 7 Over -125
Temple 7 Over -125
Ball State 7 Over -120
Oklahoma State 7
Duke 7
Central Florida 7
Nevada 7
Texas State 7
East Carolina 7 Under -120
Middle Tennessee State 7 Under -120
Kansas State 7 Under -120
Mississippi State 7 Under -120
South Carolina 7 Under -120
Toledo 7 Under -120
Texas 6.5 Under -120
Northwestern 6.5 Under -130
Texas Tech 6 Over -125
Pittsburgh 6 Over -120
Air Force 6 Over -120
Hawaii 6
Kentucky 6
UTEP 6
Florida International 6 Under -120
Indiana 6 Under -120
Miami 5.5 Over -125
Boston College 5.5 Over -120
Minnesota 5.5
Washington State 5 Over -120
Buffalo 5
Tulsa 5
Florida Atlantic 5
Rutgers 5
North Texas 5
Tulane 5
Ohio 5 Under -120
California 5 Under -120
Bowling Green 5 Under -120
Wyoming 5 Under -120
Colorado 4.5 Over -120
UMASS 4.5 Over -120
Old Dominion 4.5
Kent State 4.5 Under -120
Maryland 4.5 Under -120
New Mexico 4.5 Under -125
Syracuse 4.5 Under -130
Virginia 4.5 Under -130
San Jose State 4 Over -125
Central Michigan 4 Over -120
Troy 4
Southern Mississippi 4
Purdue 4
Oregon State 4 Under -120
Washington 4 Under -120
South Florida 4 Under -130
Louisiana-Monroe 4 Under -130
Miami (Ohio) 4 Under -130
Fresno State 4 Under -130
Idaho 3.5 Over -130
Army 3.5 Over -125
Wake Forest 3.5
Illinois 3 Over -130
New Mexico State 3 Over -125
South Alabama 3 Over -125
Connecticut 3
Iowa State 3
Vanderbilt 3 Under -125
Charlotte 2.5 Over -130
UTSA 2.5 Over -125
Georgia State 2.5
SMU 2
UNLV 2 Under -120
Eastern Michigan 1.5 Over -130
Kansas 1.5 Over -120
 

Gopher Win Over/Under Set at 5.5

http://www.startribune.com/bovada-sets-gophers-over-under-for-regular-season-wins-at-5-5/311492761/

After going 8-4 in the regular season each of the past two years, the Gophers could have a difficult time maintaining that success this fall, at least according to Bovada.

The online sports book on Thursday set the over/under for Minnesota's regular season win total at 5.5.

Last year, Bovada set Minnesota's over/under at 6.5, but the Gophers won eight again, including upset victories at Michigan and at Nebraska. (They capped the season with another bowl loss, this time against Missouri.)

This year's Gophers schedule will be even more difficult, with games against TCU and Ohio State again, and a difficult Week 2 test at Colorado State. Oddshark currently lists the Gophers as 16-point underdogs, at home, for their Sept. 3 season opener against TCU.
 

Should be noted the over on the 5.5 is -200. So they're definitely pegging the gophers to win 6. Makes the gophers a much less appealing play on the over now
 


Even Ohio and Kent State are tough some years, I don't know anything about their 2015 teams.
 

I was hoping for a third thread on this topic. Outstanding!
 


This Chris Andrews is just a jackwad tout, trying to sell you his 'locks'. He has zero credibility.

Bovada is a clip joint. It's a great entry point to try online wagering & then go to a good place once you learn what you're doing. Their BM 'Tim Ross' simply copies the lines from larger, more talented BM's & then jacks up the prices on the obvious favorites.

Check Bookmaker.com, check 5Dimes, check TheGreek.com, those places are legit.
 



As others have pointed out, nobody knows for sure what the season will bring. Injuries, turnovers, penalties - all can swing a game from a W to a L in a heartbeat.

Looking at the schedule as a Gopher Fan, I can see a 9-3 season. Looking at the schedule from an outside perspective, I can envision scenarios where the Gophers wind up 6-6, 7-5 or 8-4. I would be extremely surprised if they lost more than 6 games, and I would be pleasantly surprised if they won more than 9 games.

My gut tells me the defense is going to keep the Gophs in games. So, it comes down to the offense. I suspect we are going to be holding our breath on more than one occasion as the offense has the ball in the 4th Qtr with a chance to win (or lose) a close game.
 

There are VERY few bets worth taking at -200. Kind of like betting on the 1/5 favorite at a horse track. Better off just keeping your money off the table.
 

I'm happy to entertain bets against my expectation that the Gophers will not improve upon their regular season record of the past two seasons...
 

I am going with 10-2 with a loss at Ohio State and one other loss and that loss will not be vs. Wisconsin. It is our turn to beat Wisonsin.

We may beat TCU as well, but I see one other loss on the schedule. edit Best defense in my lifetime this year!

Our Defense and offensive line are too good to lose many games. In fact our Defense is going to be great, and will be an elite, deep unit, and that make this a very exciting year. On offense the RB depth is there and ML will be decent enough at QB. If someone can morph into L Maroney that could change things as well. I have been waiting for another great RB since 2006, but Cobb to his credit was pretty great.
 



Gopher Warrior said:
I'm happy to entertain bets against my expectation that the Gophers will not improve upon their regular season record of the past two seasons...
Click to expand...

And are you also happy to entertain bets against your prediction that Kill won't last past this year?
 

Gopher Warrior said:
I'm happy to entertain bets against my expectation that the Gophers will not improve upon their regular season record of the past two seasons...
Click to expand...

What's funny is you think that if this happens it somehow proves you are right about Kill. If they just match last years regular season it will mean they will be above .500 in the Big Ten two years in a row for the first time ever since they went to 8 conference games, or it will mean they beat a preseason top 5 team in TCU.

Very few people will take your bet because many believe it is a real possibility our regular season doesn't improve. But, unlike you, most everyone won't see another 8-win regular season as a big failure.
 





GopherinPhilly said:
As much as I hate to agree with the guy, if I had to bet today, I would say 5-6 wins.

We have a very tough schedule. Could go 2-2 in the non-con and Iowa, Neb, scUM, NWU, Purdue & tOSU will be better this year and Sconnie very tough.

If we don't replace Cobb, can't find one of RS receivers to step up, have any injuries at LB and if Mitch isn't considerably better...a losing season could very easily happen.

Ask me again after the first two games and I might change my tune.
Click to expand...

I tend to see it this way, too: very tough schedule, Maxx and Cobb gone, rookie secondary, 51% passing last year. I'd be happy with six regular season wins and, finally, a bowl win.
 

I was in Vegas last week, and the O/U is 6 at every place I could find on the Strip. Over opened at +115 and moved to -110 in under a week. Obviously a good deal of action on the Over to prompt that move, but the number hasn't moved. I still put $100 on the over, although I wish I would've been there a week earlier!
 





H/t to Bleed, who posted this on the thread about the secondary:

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They will be pushing 200 games combined by the end of this season. I guess that's a "rookie" secondary.
 

dpodoll68 said:
H/t to Bleed, who posted this on the thread about the secondary:

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

They will be pushing 200 games combined by the end of this season. I guess that's a "rookie" secondary.
Click to expand...

If all four stay healthy and we win the west, they will combine for 199 starts at the end of the year. I would agree they are an experiences senior bunch, plus Kill and Clays like to play two or even three deep at some positions, so even next year the new starters won't be green either
 

I think for even money I would have to set the over/under at 7. Because 7 is the number I expect them to win.

However, they are much more likely to win 9 than win 5, so 5.5 seems really low.
 

Costa Rican Gopher said:
This Chris Andrews is just a jackwad tout, trying to sell you his 'locks'. He has zero credibility.

Bovada is a clip joint. It's a great entry point to try online wagering & then go to a good place once you learn what you're doing. Their BM 'Tim Ross' simply copies the lines from larger, more talented BM's & then jacks up the prices on the obvious favorites.

Check Bookmaker.com, check 5Dimes, check TheGreek.com, those places are legit.
Click to expand...

I just checked 5dimes. They have it at 6 wins and the over is -120. But I guess since Bovada just copies the lines from from other BMs, I didn't really need to check.
 

MGGopher said:
I was in Vegas last week, and the O/U is 6 at every place I could find on the Strip. Over opened at +115 and moved to -110 in under a week. Obviously a good deal of action on the Over to prompt that move, but the number hasn't moved. I still put $100 on the over, although I wish I would've been there a week earlier!
Click to expand...

CG Technology (which operates the Sports Books at Palazzo, Venetian, the Trop, and others) currently has the O/U at 6 wins with the Over priced at -160, so it seems like a decent amount of money has come in on the Over.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom