Curiously low over/under for wins

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Urbandale

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On local sports radio yesterday here in the Des Moines area, a Las Vegas oddsmaker was giving his over/unders for wins for Big Ten teams. I gathered that he was more of a freelancer than an employee of one of the Vegas sports books. Anyway, he put the Gopher over/under at 5.5 (this was for the entire regular season, not just the Big Ten season).

The local hosts were flabbergasted, and questioned the man why the Gophers would go down in wins this year. He didn't have much of an answer, but did say that he liked Jerry Kill and hoped Minnesota wouldn't fire him before he righted the ship. A very strange response, seemingly two years behind the times. He had Wisconsin at 10, Nebraska at 8 and Iowa at 7.5.

After the conversation concluded and the man was off the air, the hosts politely but firmly ripped him for his views, and indicated that they likely wouldn't have him on again.

Thoughts?
 

Which oddsmaker? I suspect he's more like a handicapper who sells his picks from Vegas, rather than a an actual oddsmaker.
 


I'd like to know since that sounds like a safe bet. I'd take the over with some serious dough.
 

My thoughts?

I think they're right. They shouldn't have him on again.
 


As much as I hate to agree with the guy, if I had to bet today, I would say 5-6 wins.

We have a very tough schedule. Could go 2-2 in the non-con and Iowa, Neb, scUM, NWU, Purdue & tOSU will be better this year and Sconnie very tough.

If we don't replace Cobb, can't find one of RS receivers to step up, have any injuries at LB and if Mitch isn't considerably better...a losing season could very easily happen.

Ask me again after the first two games and I might change my tune.
 

Is there any gambling site right now offering even money for over on 5.5 wins? If so, sign me up. I would consider even 6 wins (beating this over) to be a miserably disappointing season and a serious step backwards for the program.
 

GopherinPhilly said:
As much as I hate to agree with the guy, if I had to bet today, I would say 5-6 wins.

We have a very tough schedule. Could go 2-2 in the non-con and Iowa, Neb, scUM, NWU, Purdue & tOSU will be better this year and Sconnie very tough.

If we don't replace Cobb, can't find one of RS receivers to step up, have any injuries at LB and if Mitch isn't considerably better...a losing season could very easily happen.

Ask me again after the first two games and I might change my tune.
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Don't know how you figure Iowa, Nebraska, NU and maybe even Purdue will be better than last year. Also, this is the deepest we have been at LB since Kill has been here and this year would be the least devastating to have one go down to injury.
 

If they don't go at least 4-4 in conference, I'll be extremely disappointed. I think the defense is that good. LB is fine. Celestin and Williams are raw, but played a ton on special teams. Laster played in 9 games. Rallis gives them even more depth and I'd guess the Huff that plays LB plays as a true frosh. My only concern on defense is at DT. Richardson's a rock, but after that, there's questions if Scott Ekpe doesn't get back to full strength.
 



die hard gopher said:
Don't know how you figure Iowa, Nebraska, NU and maybe even Purdue will be better than last year. Also, this is the deepest we have been at LB since Kill has been here and this year would be the least devastating to have one go down to injury.
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We shall see. But we could go 2-2 in non-con and only Gopher fans would be surprised and 4-4 in the B1G also very possible if not likely based on schedule. That's 6-6, which is just one Ill type loss from 5-7. Hence the betting line.

Again, if our RBs can handle the load, we replace our draft picks with play makers and take steps forward in the passing game, I expect much better. But even in the best instance, with our schedule and cross over games, 8 wins would be a great season (as long as one of them is Sconnie).

Lots and lots of ifs as we enter the summer.
 

GopherinPhilly said:
As much as I hate to agree with the guy, if I had to bet today, I would say 5-6 wins.

We have a very tough schedule. Could go 2-2 in the non-con and Iowa, Neb, scUM, NWU, Purdue & tOSU will be better this year and Sconnie very tough.

If we don't replace Cobb, can't find one of RS receivers to step up, have any injuries at LB and if Mitch isn't considerably better...a losing season could very easily happen.

Ask me again after the first two games and I might change my tune.
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So, are you predicting 5-7 or is this a "could happen" statement that you can defend whether it pans out or not. Kinda like "we could finish 2-10" or "we could finish 10-2". Just trying to figure out where you are coming from.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Spoofin said:
So, are you predicting 5-7 or is this a "could happen" statement that you can defend whether it pans out or not. Kinda like "we could finish 2-10" or "we could finish 10-2". Just trying to figure out where you are coming from.
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Read the whole thread...guys were jumping down the throat of the odds maker from a radio show how said the over/under for the Gophers in 2015 was 5.5 wins. The person I originally responded too said that it was idiotic or something and the guy was a moron. My first in the string of several before the particular post you quoted was simply showing how a person could arrive at that win total...especially since betting odds are based on wagers and not expert opinion. So I merely stated that if I was forced to make a bet today, with evidence in hand (as explained), that 6-6 would be a safe bet and 5-7 would not be out of the realm of possible.

Am I predicting that or betting it? No. But if you put a gun to my head and forced me to make a bet today...I would take the over of 5.5 and I fully expect 8 wins and a very successful year for us. But, a few things don't pan out and a bit of bad luck and 8-4 turns into 5-7 in a hurry.

That's all I was saying and regarding defending a prediction, that's for Dpod, GW and the rest of the yahoos who take this far more seriously than I. At the end of the season we will win what we win and that will be what it is. All the rest is just fun fandom to me.
 

GopherinPhilly said:
Read the whole thread...guys were jumping down the throat of the odds maker from a radio show how said the over/under for the Gophers in 2015 was 5.5 wins. The person I originally responded too said that it was idiotic or something and the guy was a moron. My first in the string of several before the particular post you quoted was simply showing how a person could arrive at that win total...especially since betting odds are based on wagers and not expert opinion. So I merely stated that if I was forced to make a bet today, with evidence in hand (as explained), that 6-6 would be a safe bet and 5-7 would not be out of the realm of possible.
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You should read the thread again. No one jumped down anyone's throat. The OP asked thoughts on us at 5.5, Wisconsin at 10, Nebraska at 8, and Iowa at 7.5 and you were the only one that agreed.
 



GopherinPhilly said:
Read the whole thread...guys were jumping down the throat of the odds maker from a radio show how said the over/under for the Gophers in 2015 was 5.5 wins. The person I originally responded too said that it was idiotic or something and the guy was a moron. My first in the string of several before the particular post you quoted was simply showing how a person could arrive at that win total...especially since betting odds are based on wagers and not expert opinion. So I merely stated that if I was forced to make a bet today, with evidence in hand (as explained), that 6-6 would be a safe bet and 5-7 would not be out of the realm of possible.

Am I predicting that or betting it? No. But if you put a gun to my head and forced me to make a bet today...I would take the over of 5.5 and I fully expect 8 wins and a very successful year for us. But, a few things don't pan out and a bit of bad luck and 8-4 turns into 5-7 in a hurry.

That's all I was saying and regarding defending a prediction, that's for Dpod, GW and the rest of the yahoos who take this far more seriously than I. At the end of the season we will win what we win and that will be what it is. All the rest is just fun fandom to me.
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Got it. Thanks. Was seriously wondering if you would predict/bet on 5-7. You wouldn't and you answered my question.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

harrys ghost said:
You should read the thread again. No one jumped down anyone's throat. The OP asked thoughts on us at 5.5, Wisconsin at 10, Nebraska at 8, and Iowa at 7.5 and you were the only one that agreed.
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And you should quote my entire post and not cherry pick.

Regardless, the vegas odds will have us favored in probably 4 or 5 games this year and this was a thread about an odds maker and I was simply stating, it is easy to see how they came to that conclusion. I also said that I expect 8 wins and a very good season...but with some injuries and some players not stepping up like we expect, and our tough schedule, 5 wins is not out of the realm of possibility.

But maybe instead of opining about my opinion, offer one of your own on the OPs question.
 

GopherinPhilly said:
And you should quote my entire post and not cherry pick.

Regardless, the vegas odds will have us favored in probably 4 or 5 games this year and this was a thread about an odds maker and I was simply stating, it is easy to see how they came to that conclusion. I also said that I expect 8 wins and a very good season...but with some injuries and some players not stepping up like we expect, and our tough schedule, 5 wins is not out of the realm of possibility.

But maybe instead of opining about my opinion, offer one of your own on the OPs question.
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I wasn't commenting on your opinion. I was commenting on your statement "Read the whole thread...guys were jumping down the throat of the odds maker from a radio show how said the over/under for the Gophers in 2015 was 5.5 wins. The person I originally responded too said that it was idiotic or something and the guy was a moron."

There were four comments before you posted:

"Which oddsmaker? I suspect he's more like a handicapper who sells his picks from Vegas, rather than a an actual oddsmaker."

"Could be. I'm not sure I know the difference between an oddsmaker and a handicapper."

"I'd like to know since that sounds like a safe bet. I'd take the over with some serious dough."

"I think they're right. They shouldn't have him on again."
 

I don't know what to think about the upcoming season. I am optimistic by nature, but I worry this is going to be one of those seasons like say Michigan St had in 2012 where a great defense did not get much help from the offense. We will be relying on some unknown quantities on offense.
 

I seriously question the professionalism of an odds-maker that would set our under/over on wins at 5.5. A close look at Colorado State will show that they are a paper tiger, a new QB and having to replace their two best offensive lineman on a porous line, is not a formula for success. Michigan, lost their center and a couple of other offensive linemen, their problems on offense will not be fixed in one year. If you look at our opponents and their needs, then look at ours, finding a scenario where we have 7 losses is tough. I would expect the real line will be 7.5, with 6.5 defensible 5.5 is not.
 

Urbandale said:
The local hosts were flabbergasted, and questioned the man why the Gophers would go down in wins this year.
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If I was betting and had to pick "under or over" 8 regular season wins last year, I'd certainly pick under. Don't think that's something to be flabbergasted over at all. They won a lot of close games last year and had a favorable Michigan match-up. Is 7-5 more likely than 9-3? Yes.

#1MoreYear
 

My how times have changed the tone in GH compared to two seasons ago about this time.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
If I was betting and had to pick "under or over" 8 regular season wins last year, I'd certainly pick under. Don't think that's something to be flabbergasted over at all. They won a lot of close games last year and had a favorable Michigan match-up. Is 7-5 more likely than 9-3? Yes.

#1MoreYear
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One, the OP said the oddsmaker set our over/under at 5.5, not 8 which is what most of us where flabbergasted at. Second, I'd argue that our one hiccup, Illinois, was more of a fluke than any of our close wins considering the Cobb fumble and I'd also argue that Nebraska was, if anything, fortunate to have the game as close as it was considering their blocked FG for a TD which is a 7-10 point swing depending on if Santoso makes the FG. Plus even without the BBC strip, there would have been a penalty on Nebraska anyways. It goes both way and we get them at home next year along with Michigan. Speaking of the Wolverines, if Morris is still the best they have at QB, I don't know if last years matchup with them would be any more favorable for us than this years matchup under the lights. My O/U would be 8.5.
 

TCU and tOSU games are the only 2 we should not be favored to win. I expect better than 8-4. Color me 8.5! If I was a betting person (I am not) I would be all over 7.5.

We will have our best running game ever in 2015 even without David Cobb. It will be better than the Maroney-Barber days because it will not fizzle out in the 4th quarter against the good teams. DL starts to get pressure.
 

die hard gopher said:
One, the OP said the oddsmaker set our over/under at 5.5, not 8 which is what most of us where flabbergasted at. Second, I'd argue that our one hiccup, Illinois, was more of a fluke than any of our close wins considering the Cobb fumble and I'd also argue that Nebraska was, if anything, fortunate to have the game as close as it was considering their blocked FG for a TD which is a 7-10 point swing depending on if Santoso makes the FG. Plus even without the BBC strip, there would have been a penalty on Nebraska anyways. It goes both way and we get them at home next year along with Michigan. Speaking of the Wolverines, if Morris is still the best they have at QB, I don't know if last years matchup with them would be any more favorable for us than this years matchup under the lights. My O/U would be 8.5.
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Yup. A a good bet on the Gophers at that!
 

8.5 is just as ridiculous as 5.5. Even if Vegas set the o/u at 7 I'm sure the national money would come in heavy on the under to the point where Vegas would get nervous. I think 6.5 is the number that Vegas will settle on to create similar amounts of betting on either side. The distribution of home vs away games this season are going to make for a lot of "small" point spreads. 2015 could go a lot of different ways. 5 wins or 9 wins will leave me equally as shocked.
 

I'd set it at 6.5 if I was trying to be unbiased.

That said, I'm predicting 9 regular season wins.
 

GopherHomer said:
8.5 is just as ridiculous as 5.5. Even if Vegas set the o/u at 7 I'm sure the national money would come in heavy on the under to the point where Vegas would get nervous. I think 6.5 is the number that Vegas will settle on to create similar amounts of betting on either side. The distribution of home vs away games this season are going to make for a lot of "small" point spreads. 2015 could go a lot of different ways. 5 wins or 9 wins will leave me equally as shocked.
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I'm not saying I expect Vegas to have it at 8.5, that is just me. I do strongly disagree with the bold however.
 

die hard gopher said:
One, the OP said the oddsmaker set our over/under at 5.5, not 8 which is what most of us where flabbergasted at. Second, I'd argue that our one hiccup, Illinois, was more of a fluke than any of our close wins considering the Cobb fumble and I'd also argue that Nebraska was, if anything, fortunate to have the game as close as it was considering their blocked FG for a TD which is a 7-10 point swing depending on if Santoso makes the FG. Plus even without the BBC strip, there would have been a penalty on Nebraska anyways. It goes both way and we get them at home next year along with Michigan. Speaking of the Wolverines, if Morris is still the best they have at QB, I don't know if last years matchup with them would be any more favorable for us than this years matchup under the lights. My O/U would be 8.5.
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"The local hosts were flabbergasted, and questioned the man why the Gophers would go down in wins this year." made it seem like there was a question why Minnesota wouldn't win 8 again this year.

Agree that 5.5 is low. But, after that dump they took on field against Illinois....

PS - if you want to take the over on regular season wins at 8.5, I'm game.
 

GopherHomer said:
8.5 is just as ridiculous as 5.5. Even if Vegas set the o/u at 7 I'm sure the national money would come in heavy on the under to the point where Vegas would get nervous. I think 6.5 is the number that Vegas will settle on to create similar amounts of betting on either side. The distribution of home vs away games this season are going to make for a lot of "small" point spreads. 2015 could go a lot of different ways. 5 wins or 9 wins will leave me equally as shocked.
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I'd disagree with the bold. I agree that 8.5 might be high, but 7.5 is probably pretty fair. I really like where our team is at right now and the improvement Kill has shown, so when comparing 8.5 with 5.5, I'd say it is more likely that we improve by one win than that we get three wins worse.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I'd disagree with the bold. I agree that 8.5 might be high, but 7.5 is probably pretty fair. I really like where our team is at right now and the improvement Kill has shown, so when comparing 8.5 with 5.5, I'd say it is more likely that we improve by one win than that we get three wins worse.[/QUOTE]


The bolded statement is defendable, but I think you missed my point a little. When I said 8.5 and 5.5 were equally ridiculous, I was merely speaking from a Vegas over/under standpoint. Now, I realize I also said that I would be equally surprised by 5 or 9 wins but I concede that stance is highly debatable and is founded on my particular brand of "homerism" that will always make a bigger deal out of success than failure.
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GopherinPhilly said:
As much as I hate to agree with the guy, if I had to bet today, I would say 5-6 wins.

We have a very tough schedule. Could go 2-2 in the non-con and Iowa, Neb, scUM, NWU, Purdue & tOSU will be better this year and Sconnie very tough.

If we don't replace Cobb, can't find one of RS receivers to step up, have any injuries at LB and if Mitch isn't considerably better...a losing season could very easily happen.

Ask me again after the first two games and I might change my tune.[/QU

Of course we have not played a game yet but a losing season would be a huge disappointment. The two things that can ruin anyone's season. The two games that will make or break us will be Colorado state and at Iowa. Everyone has a tough schedule except Wisconsin especially in conference play.
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