NFL Scout says Gophers prob have 3rd best talent in B1G for 2015, behind OSU & MSU

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Unregistered User said:
https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...riots-seahawks-high-school-recruiting-ratings
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I know what they think the average is. If you actually add up the guys who were evaluated, Seattle has an average rating of 3.0 and New England at 2.9, which are both near where one would expect since the average high-major football recruit is a 3-star. Since they don't disclose their (flawed) methodology, it's tough to say how their "calculations" account for guys who were never evaluated or graduated from high school before Rivals existed. The correct thing would be to remove them altogether (as I've done for the average ratings above), but they've clearly done something else. A guy who was never evaluated shouldn't be given a 1-star or 0-star (or whatever bogus method they used), because that's neither accurate nor correct.

EDIT: And I see from your edit that you arrived at the same conclusions as me. As I suspected, these "averages" are not accurate.
 

dpodoll68 said:
I know what they think the average is. If you actually add up the guys who were evaluated, Seattle has an average rating of 3.0 and New England at 2.9, which are both near where one would expect since the average high-major football recruit is a 3-star. Since they don't disclose their (flawed) methodology, it's tough to say how their "calculations" account for guys who were never evaluated or graduated from high school before Rivals existed. The correct thing would be to remove them altogether (as I've done for the average ratings above), but they've clearly done something else. A guy who was never evaluated shouldn't be given a 1-star or 0-star (or whatever bogus method they used), because that's neither accurate nor correct.

EDIT: And I see from your edit that you arrived at the same conclusions as me. As I suspected, these "averages" are not accurate.
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vegeta5.jpg
 

wait!what? said:
A 10 win season and JK and staff become hot property to move on outta here.
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See our recent 4-star OL's quotes on why he came here. I could be naive, but I don't think Jerry or his staff have any interest in moving anywhere else. They are as humble as D1 coaches get and they know the resources available to them at the U. Jerry seems like the type of guy who loves our culture and wouldn't mind having future gophers hone their skills at the Jerry Kill Practice Complex.
 


'13Gopher said:
See our recent 4-star OL's quotes on why he came here. I could be naive, but I don't think Jerry or his staff have any interest in moving anywhere else. They are as humble as D1 coaches get and they know the resources available to them at the U. Jerry seems like the type of guy who loves our culture and wouldn't mind having future gophers hone their skills at the Jerry Kill Practice Complex.
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I agree with you. It appears though that we seem to have several people here who also think Jerry is no better than Urban Meyer. Shame on them for thinking so little of Jerry!:rolleyes:
 


dpodoll68 said:
I know what they think the average is. If you actually add up the guys who were evaluated, Seattle has an average rating of 3.0 and New England at 2.9, which are both near where one would expect since the average high-major football recruit is a 3-star. Since they don't disclose their (flawed) methodology, it's tough to say how their "calculations" account for guys who were never evaluated or graduated from high school before Rivals existed. The correct thing would be to remove them altogether (as I've done for the average ratings above), but they've clearly done something else. A guy who was never evaluated shouldn't be given a 1-star or 0-star (or whatever bogus method they used), because that's neither accurate nor correct.

EDIT: And I see from your edit that you arrived at the same conclusions as me. As I suspected, these "averages" are not accurate.
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Thanks - Dpodoll is like an anti virus software. What would we do without him?
 

dpodoll68 said:
I know what they think the average is. If you actually add up the guys who were evaluated, Seattle has an average rating of 3.0 and New England at 2.9, which are both near where one would expect since the average high-major football recruit is a 3-star. Since they don't disclose their (flawed) methodology, it's tough to say how their "calculations" account for guys who were never evaluated or graduated from high school before Rivals existed. The correct thing would be to remove them altogether (as I've done for the average ratings above), but they've clearly done something else. A guy who was never evaluated shouldn't be given a 1-star or 0-star (or whatever bogus method they used), because that's neither accurate nor correct.


The point is not about math, it's that getting 4 and 5 star recruits means nothing. If Kill and his staff rate the kid highly, that's good enough for me.
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Halsey Hall said:
The point is not about math, it's that getting 4 and 5 star recruits means nothing.
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Except that's not true. Kill and staff don't miss out on most 4- and 5-star recruits because they don't want them. They miss out because they can't get them.

And, going further, most NFL players are 2- and 3-stars because the majority of BCS players are 2- and 3-stars. That should be surprising to no one. It's simple probability.

Halsey Hall said:
If Kill and his staff rate the kid highly, that's good enough for me.
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Agreed. And I guarantee that they rate most 4- and 5-star players very highly and would take almost any of them if they had the chance. Since they get very few of them, their ability to discern which of the 3- or 2-star players are the right ones to get is imperative.
 

If the star rankings were correct, wouldn't you expect that the small percentage of college players who make the NFL would skew the average higher? And wouldn't you further expect that Super Bowl champions would have an even higher average? If Kill could literally pick his line up, wouldn't he do what he's always done and place an emphasis on live evals and character/fit with the team? That we take a flyer here and there on a questionable kid or two doesn't mean he'd fill the roster with questionable kids. Anyway, doesn't matter, you can build a powerhouse without getting any top 100 kids.
 



'13Gopher said:
See our recent 4-star OL's quotes on why he came here. I could be naive, but I don't think Jerry or his staff have any interest in moving anywhere else. They are as humble as D1 coaches get and they know the resources available to them at the U. Jerry seems like the type of guy who loves our culture and wouldn't mind having future gophers hone their skills at the Jerry Kill Practice Complex.
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It's pretty simple. Do Jerry Kill and his staff have any interest in moving anywhere else today.....no. Until the time comes that a helmet school with better facilities and better salaries comes calling why would Kill and his staff have any desire to be anywhere else? If/when the day comes that Kill turns down a better offer in order to stay here, then I will join the crowd that has convinced themselves that Jerry loves it here and will never leave.

Kill's track record as a head coach has been upward mobility for him and his staff and there is nothing wrong with that. If a big time job offer comes his way at some point in the next few years I absolutely expect him to take it.
 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000467934/article/where-firstround-picks-of-last-five-years-rated-out-of-high-school

According to this article, about 85% of players who sign with FCS schools each year are 2 or 3 star players. Of the NFL first rounders the past five drafts, less than 43% were 2 or 3 star players out of high school or JUCO.

About 12-14% of players who sign with FCS schools are 4 or 5 star players. In the past five drafts, over 57% first rounders were 4 or 5 star players.

It's pretty simple, higher rated players out of high school statistically have a significantly better chance of playing in the NFL some day. I don't think there is any way to say otherwise.
 

Last 5 NFL First Round Drafts

160 Overall Picks
5-Star - 26 selections (16%)
4-Star - 66 selections (41%)
3-Star - 49 selections (31%)
2-Star - 17 selections (11%)
No Rating - 2 selections (1%)

Note:
There are roughly only 30 or so 5-star recruits per class
About 85% of evaluated players are 3-star or below

Considering how much the first round skews above the ratings averages, one could easily argue that recruiting rankings certainly matter when you're talking about players that are drafted and make NFL teams.
 

Gophers In Iowa and I were obviously quoting the same story. Good work, GII.

Recruiting rankings matter. Pure and simple. If they didn't, why would college coaching staffs with jobs and millions of dollars on the line use them? They wouldn't. But they do use them. Because they know they matter. Is it the only tool they use? No. But they do matter. It's not even a debate.
 



GophersInIowa said:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000467934/article/where-firstround-picks-of-last-five-years-rated-out-of-high-school

According to this article, about 85% of players who sign with FCS schools each year are 2 or 3 star players. Of the NFL first rounders the past five drafts, less than 43% were 2 or 3 star players out of high school or JUCO.

About 12-14% of players who sign with FCS schools are 4 or 5 star players. In the past five drafts, over 57% first rounders were 4 or 5 star players.

It's pretty simple, higher rated players out of high school statistically have a significantly better chance of playing in the NFL some day. I don't think there is any way to say otherwise.
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How many first round draft picks start for the Pats or Seahawks? How about the Raiders? Again, we are talking perception vs outcomes.
 

josh087 said:
Last 5 NFL First Round Drafts

160 Overall Picks
5-Star - 26 selections (16%)
4-Star - 66 selections (41%)
3-Star - 49 selections (31%)
2-Star - 17 selections (11%)
No Rating - 2 selections (1%)

Note:
There are roughly only 30 or so 5-star recruits per class
About 85% of evaluated players are 3-star or below

Considering how much the first round skews above the ratings averages, one could easily argue that recruiting rankings certainly matter when you're talking about players that are drafted and make NFL teams.
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How many 4*'s per year and how man 3*s per year?

This data says that almost 20% (30 of 150 or 17% ) of 5* athletes are 1st round talent.

Numbers don't lie, we lie about numbers.
 

josh087 said:
Last 5 NFL First Round Drafts

160 Overall Picks
5-Star - 26 selections (16%)
4-Star - 66 selections (41%)
3-Star - 49 selections (31%)
2-Star - 17 selections (11%)
No Rating - 2 selections (1%)

Note:
There are roughly only 30 or so 5-star recruits per class
About 85% of evaluated players are 3-star or below

Considering how much the first round skews above the ratings averages, one could easily argue that recruiting rankings certainly matter when you're talking about players that are drafted and make NFL teams.
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What is wrong with this statistically is that hopefully your coach is not selecting his recruits randomly (maybe Brewster did). If he does, these would be the numbers. I assume Kill is not selecting a random 2*... he's selecting one he thinks is better than that.
 

MNVCGUY said:
It's pretty simple. Do Jerry Kill and his staff have any interest in moving anywhere else today.....no. Until the time comes that a helmet school with better facilities and better salaries comes calling why would Kill and his staff have any desire to be anywhere else? If/when the day comes that Kill turns down a better offer in order to stay here, then I will join the crowd that has convinced themselves that Jerry loves it here and will never leave.

Kill's track record as a head coach has been upward mobility for him and his staff and there is nothing wrong with that. If a big time job offer comes his way at some point in the next few years I absolutely expect him to take it.
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Of course you do.

How do you know he hasn't already been offered other jobs? For all you know, Nebraska and Michigan might have reached out to his agent. His past job changes were for head coaching positions that were at a higher level. A Mac team like Northern Illinois has inherent disadvantages compared to every B1G team and it can't consistently compete against the best. Once the practice facility is built, Jerry has everything in place here to compete for B1G championships. There is no reason Minnesota can't be better than Nebraska for the next 50 years....
 

josh087 said:
Last 5 NFL First Round Drafts

160 Overall Picks
5-Star - 26 selections (16%)
4-Star - 66 selections (41%)
3-Star - 49 selections (31%)
2-Star - 17 selections (11%)
No Rating - 2 selections (1%)

Note:
There are roughly only 30 or so 5-star recruits per class
About 85% of evaluated players are 3-star or below

Considering how much the first round skews above the ratings averages, one could easily argue that recruiting rankings certainly matter when you're talking about players that are drafted and make NFL teams.
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The problem with your methodology is that there is not an equal amount of 5-star, 4-star, 3-star and 2-star players. As the level goes up, there are less players.

What percentage of each rating gets drafted.

There is a difference.
 

Section2 said:
How many first round draft picks start for the Pats or Seahawks? How about the Raiders? Again, we are talking perception vs outcomes.
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I'm not sure what you are getting at here. For just about every team it will be a small percentage because there are only 32 first round picks each draft.

The point is statistically you have a much better chance of playing in the NFL if you are a 4 or 5 star recruit.
 

Ski U Mah Gopher said:
The problem with your methodology is that there is not an equal amount of 5-star, 4-star, 3-star and 2-star players. As the level goes up, there are less players.

What percentage of each rating gets drafted.

There is a difference.
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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000466388/article/national-signing-day-nfl-draft-history-for-fivestar-recruits

According to this article, from the 2002 to 2011 recruiting classes, 42.7% of 5-star recruits ended up being drafted.

If you lump the rest of the ratings together (4-star through unranked), it ends up being less than 10%.
 

MNVCGUY said:
It's pretty simple. Do Jerry Kill and his staff have any interest in moving anywhere else today.....no. Until the time comes that a helmet school with better facilities and better salaries comes calling why would Kill and his staff have any desire to be anywhere else? If/when the day comes that Kill turns down a better offer in order to stay here, then I will join the crowd that has convinced themselves that Jerry loves it here and will never leave.

Kill's track record as a head coach has been upward mobility for him and his staff and there is nothing wrong with that. If a big time job offer comes his way at some point in the next few years I absolutely expect him to take it.
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He has publicly said he does not want to ever move again. He wants this to be his last job because it is just too hard on him and his wife starting over again. But the remark I like best about not moving was that he better not because Rebecca wasn't going to move.

He certainly could move but if he gets what he needs here to win I think there are strong indications he wants to stay. The one thing I am sure about is that more money won't be the reason he leaves. As far as leaving those other schools, he left because he is very competitive. He wanted to play with the big boys. He has now accomplished that. I also think that by him taking a very different path to get here he has a greater appreciation of what he has here. Like all coaches he has an ego but he is also well grounded so he doesn't need it stroked. At this point in his life I wouldn't be surprised if he has found his home and now wants to enjoy it. We just need to start digging to seal the deal.
 

Killjoy said:
He has publicly said he does not want to ever move again. He wants this to be his last job because it is just too hard on him and his wife starting over again. But the remark I like best about not moving was that he better not because Rebecca wasn't going to move. Certainly he could move but if he gets what he needs here to win he has said as much that he wouldn't. The one thing I am sure about is that money won't be the reason he leaves. The reason he left those other schools is that he competitive and wanted to play with the big boys. He has got that now. We just need to start digging.
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I agree with you. Until now, Kill's coaching moves have all been steps up in competition. I believe he's said words to the effect that coaching in the Big Ten represents the highest level available in college football. It certainly may be naive to say, but it seems he's content to remain and compete at this level as best he can (and I believe he relishes the challenge). I honestly think he would get more satisfaction out of making Minnesota successful than moving to a Michigan level school and doing what's already been done.
 

Agree completely with the last two posts. I think our biggest concern is getting the donors for the facilities to be built.
 

Star rankings vs. success and whether or not Kill will stay all wrapped into one thread.

Grab a Snickers, we're gonna be here for awhile.
 

GophersInIowa said:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000466388/article/national-signing-day-nfl-draft-history-for-fivestar-recruits

According to this article, from the 2002 to 2011 recruiting classes, 42.7% of 5-star recruits ended up being drafted.

If you lump the rest of the ratings together (4-star through unranked), it ends up being less than 10%.
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Considering the acclaim the 5 star players receive, this is a shockingly low number for the most elite athletes in the US. Even if they are tossed out of FBS schools for grades or behavior reasons there is still a path to the NFL. They simply need to be at least 3 years removed from high school. Teams will take flyers on athletic freaks with minimal football experience.
 

Old Goph said:
I agree with you. Until now, Kill's coaching moves have all been steps up in competition. I believe he's said words to the effect that coaching in the Big Ten represents the highest level available in college football. It certainly may be naive to say, but it seems he's content to remain and compete at this level as best he can (and I believe he relishes the challenge). I honestly think he would get more satisfaction out of making Minnesota successful than moving to a Michigan level school and doing what's already been done.
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I agree completely KillJoy & Old Goph.

Build the facilities, and he will stay. IMHO, truly this will be the house that Jerry Kill built.

I can envision a statue of Jerry Kill (and Momma Kill) adorning TCF Stadium someday when we win a national title! He is a rare bird tailor made for Gopherland.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Star rankings vs. success and whether or not Kill will stay all wrapped into one thread.

Grab a Snickers, we're gonna be here for awhile.
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Yep, It is not even summer yet and the summer reruns are already starting. I swear I've seen the post below or something similar to it posted every time star ratings came up. Come to think of it, I believe wren may have had a library of posts for five favorite topics that he recycled.

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Last 5 NFL First Round Drafts

160 Overall Picks
5-Star - 26 selections (16%)
4-Star - 66 selections (41%)
3-Star - 49 selections (31%)
2-Star - 17 selections (11%)
No Rating - 2 selections (1%)

Note:
There are roughly only 30 or so 5-star recruits per class
About 85% of evaluated players are 3-star or below

Considering how much the first round skews above the ratings averages, one could easily argue that recruiting rankings certainly matter when you're talking about players that are drafted and make NFL teams.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Considering the acclaim the 5 star players receive, this is a shockingly low number for the most elite athletes in the US. Even if they are tossed out of FBS schools for grades or behavior reasons there is still a path to the NFL. They simply need to be at least 3 years removed from high school. Teams will take flyers on athletic freaks with minimal football experience.
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My reaction was the complete opposite. I thought that was a pretty high rate considering they are being rated before they ever set foot on a college campus. Injuries and guys getting into trouble will always hurt some players' NFL chances.

If you look at the list, there are also guys like Mike Brewster who was a center at OSU. Had a very good college career, just didn't get drafted.
 

5 stars are considered "can't miss" prospects at the college level. If they aren't even considered for a 7th rd spot that shows how inaccurate the scouting really is. This is taing into account injuries, head cases, etc. if someone has an attrition rate for starters due to career-ending injury I'd like to see it.

I'll say it again: in aggregate, recruiting matters. But there are so many exceptions to the rule it really doesn't matter. It's possible to win big with lesser-rated players, as Jerry Kill is showing once again.

The scouting is incredibly spotty at the NCAA level.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
5 stars are considered "can't miss" prospects at the college level. If they aren't even considered for a 7th rd spot that shows how inaccurate the scouting really is. This is taing into account injuries, head cases, etc. if someone has an attrition rate for starters due to career-ending injury I'd like to see it.

I'll say it again: in aggregate, recruiting matters. But there are so many exceptions to the rule it really doesn't matter. It's possible to win big with lesser-rated players, as Jerry Kill is showing once again.

The scouting is incredibly spotty at the NCAA level.
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5 star ranking does not necessarily translate to the pros, what makes a kid a great college prospect, might not translate to the pro game. I expect that the biggest percentage of 5 star players that go undrafted are quarterbacks. If Tebow had had been on a more average team he never would have been drafted.
 

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