Field of 68 Projection (through March 1)

My generous bubble (it'll tighten as Championship Week gets started Tuesday) lists 82 teams in the hunt for the 68 NCAA bids. The Gophers are at the tail end and will need to beat Wisconsin and Penn State this week to remain.

FIELD OF 68
America East(1): Albany (110)

AAC (3): SMU (20), Temple (40), Cincinnati (50)

ACC (6): Virginia (4), Duke (5), North Carolina (13), Louisville (16), Notre Dame (27), NC State (53)

Atlantic Sun (1): North Florida (170)

A-10 (3): VCU (19), Dayton (29), Davidson (43)

Big East (6): Villanova (3), Providence (22), Butler (23), Georgetown (24), Saint John's (37), Xavier (41)

Big Sky (1): Sacramento State (127)

Big South (1): Charleston Southern (141)

B1G (7): Wisconsin (6), Maryland (10), Michigan State (32), Ohio State (36) Indiana (44), Iowa (47), Purdue (57)

Big XII (6): Kansas (2), Baylor (9), Oklahoma (16), Iowa State (17), West Virginia (21), Oklahoma State (39)

Big West (1): UC-Davis (71)

CAA (1): William & Mary (101)

C-USA (2): Old Dominion (42), Louisiana Tech (55)

Horizon (1): Valparaiso (68)

Ivy (1): Harvard (58)

MAAC (1): Iona (54)

MAC (1): Central Michigan (80)

MEAC (1): NCCU (113)

MVC (2): Wichita State (11), Northern Iowa (14)

Mountain West (3): San Diego State (25), Colorado State (26), Boise State (28)

NEC (1): Saint Francis-NY (164)

OVC (1): Murray State (65)

Pac 12 (3): Arizona (7), Utah (1/), Oregon (33)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (132)

SEC (6): Kentucky (1), Arkansas (18), Texas A&M (34), Georgia (35), LSU (45), Ole Miss (48)

Southern (1): Wofford (51)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (63)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (138)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (89)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia Southern (136)

WCC (1): Gonzaga (8)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (114)

Last 4 In: Texas A&M (34), Old Dominion (42), NC State (53), Purdue (57)

First 4 Out: Tulsa (30), BYU (38), UCLA (52), Illinois (59)

Others (10): Texas (46), Pitt (49), Stanford (56), Richmond (64), Massachusetts (66), Rhode Island (67), Connecticut (69), Miami-Florida (72), Seton Hall (73), Minnesota (76)

Thanks, SS. Always look forward to "Bubble Watch" time. Thought I would unfortunately be more relaxed this year. Now I'm already psyched and nervous for the Badger game since there's that glimmer of hope.

Thanks. I love these final two weeks leading into the NCAA tourney. Pressure-packed games everywhere, every night, small and major conferences alike.

If someone is not in your bubble, does that mean that even if they win the remainder of their games (except lose in their conference championship game) that they are likely out anyway? Or are you assuming some teams will lose between now and then, and thus if they do go on a winning streak could still work their way back onto the bubble?

gopher7 said:

If someone is not in your bubble, does that mean that even if they win the remainder of their games (except lose in their conference championship game) that they are likely out anyway? Or are you assuming some teams will lose between now and then, and thus if they do go on a winning streak could still work their way back onto the bubble?

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Teams not on this list could conceivably work their way into the conversation, but I wouldn't expect to add anyone at this point. For example, Buffalo is #31 in the RPI, but I think they have no chance at an at-large bid. I suppose my mind could be changed if they get to the MAC title game and lose.

SelectionSunday said:

Teams not on this list could conceivably work their way into the conversation, but I wouldn't expect to add anyone at this point. For example, Buffalo is #31 in the RPI, but I think they have no chance at an at-large bid. I suppose my mind could be changed if they get to the MAC title game and lose.

Click to expand...

But why do you feel Conference USA has a good shot at an "at large" conference bid while the MAC does not? I don't think either of them do. The committee has been very stingy in giving extra bids to Conference USA and has left out Southern Miss twice in recent years with an RPI rank in the thirties. I could easily see one of those C-USA teams being tossed in favor of another PAC12 team. Even if they did only give the PAC 12 three teams, I think a team like BYU would get a bid over a C-USA team. They could also take only 5 SEC teams while taking another PAC 12 team.

cjbfbp said:

But why do you feel Conference USA has a good shot at an "at large" conference bid while the MAC does not? I don't think either of them do. The committee has been very stingy in giving extra bids to Conference USA and has left out Southern Miss twice in recent years with an RPI rank in the thirties. I could easily see one of those C-USA teams being tossed in favor of another PAC12 team. Even if they did only give the PAC 12 three teams, I think a team like BYU would get a bid over a C-USA team. They could also take only 5 SEC teams while taking another PAC 12 team.

Click to expand...

I don't look at past history when I make these projections, what the trends are of previous committees, whether this RPI or that RPI received a bid, how many bids this conference or that conference received, etc. I only look at the current season. What previous committees have done with teams like Southern Miss is irrelevant to 2014-15. That's the way I view it, anyways. Also, I like to repeat this, TEAMS get at-large bids, not CONFERENCES.

Yes, the committee has a lot of options, BYU is certainly among those. The Cougars were probably my first or 2nd team out this week. Regarding Buffalo (of the MAC), #31 in the RPI, they have no RPI top-50 wins and just 2 RPI top-100 wins. Their best win is @ #89 Bowling Green. Yes, they were ahead of Kentucky at halftime and gave Wisconsin a tough game, but that's not a resume that in any way says, "We deserve an at-large bid."

Old Dominion (of Conference USA) has earned consideration. C-USA certainly is a 1-bid league if ODU wins the conference tournament, but at this point I consider ODU a viable at-large candidate. 22-6 record, 2-0 vs. the RPI top 50 (beat VCU, won on neutral court vs. LSU), also destroyed current C-USA leader #55 Louisiana Tech, 5-2 vs. the RPI top 100, 7-6 road/neutral record, #42 non-conference SOS. Those are pretty solid numbers for a non-major conference team that doesn't get all the quality-win opportunities that schools from the major conferences do.

How I feel about BYU, ODU, and the Pac 12 & SEC bubblers, etc., in just under 2 weeks, well that could be another story. Need to see how the bubble shakes out.

Differences with Lunardi and Palm

Both updated their projections this morning, as well.

Currently Lunardi and I have 2 differences. Lunardi has BYU and Tulsa in the field, in their place I have Davidson and Old Dominion.

Palm and I have 3 differences. Palm has BYU, Illinois, and Tulsa in the field, in their place I have Davidson, Old Dominion, and Temple.

Note that I have Davidson in the field as the A-10's auto qualifier (they'd be the #1 seed for the A-10 tourney if it were held today), Lunardi and Palm do not.

Last 4 In
Lunardi: BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Purdue
Palm: Boise State, BYU, Illinois, Texas A&M
SS: NC State, Old Dominion, Purdue, Texas A&M

First 4 Out
Lunardi: Davidson, Illinois, Pitt, UCLA
Palm: Pitt, Temple, Texas, UCLA
SS: BYU, Illinois, Tulsa, UCLA