Can we talk bubble about Purdue - Strangest resume of them all

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Dano564

Dano564

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Purdue is 3rd in the Big Ten which could get as many as 7 or 8 teams.

But...

Purdue RPI: 69

Best Wins
37 @ Indiana
37 Indiana
40 NC State
43 Ohio St
53 Iowa
58 BYU (Neutral)
78 Minnesota
82 Michigan
110 Penn State

12-3 Home
4-4 Road
2-2 Neutral

Vs Top 50 = 4-3
51-100 = 4-3
100-200 = 5-3


It's an interesting resume. I'm curious to see where they get seeded.
 

Are they a sure thing to get in the tourney if they go 11-7? They're on their way to their 11th win tonight but could lose their last three.

What's the worst RPI to ever make the tourney as an at-large?
 

It seems like a decent resume, but that RPI is very borderline (less than above MN).
 

GophersInIowa said:
Are they a sure thing to get in the tourney if they go 11-7? They're on their way to their 11th win tonight but could lose their last three.

What's the worst RPI to ever make the tourney as an at-large?
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Yes, I think they are nearly a sure thing. Nebraska, who struggled in nonconference last year, had an 11-7 conference record and made it with a pretty good seed. I firmly believe they will take 7 Big Ten teams and Purdue will be one of them. I think there will be a noticeable break between #7 and #8 in the Big Ten in terms of conference wins.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Are they a sure thing to get in the tourney if they go 11-7? They're on their way to their 11th win tonight but could lose their last three.

What's the worst RPI to ever make the tourney as an at-large?
Click to expand...

Not sure if this is most recent but:
(ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007)

If they lose their next two and beat Illinois, their RPI (according to RPI Wizard / RPI Forecast would be #68.
That would be the lowest RPI to make the tournament. Yet they would be 12-6 Big Ten.
 


Of the top 8 teams in the Big Ten, they have the second lowest RPI at #59.
Illinois is #60

I'm getting two different numbers from two different sites.
 

Purdue has some horrific losses. The rundown of what you showed who they beat is reflective on how few good wins you can get in the conference this year. Years past if you got 13 wins you might have 8 against RPI TOP 30. Purdue may get 12 wins and zero against the top 30. I think the conference will get 6,maybe 7
 

Assuming Wisconsin beats Sparty, that would set up a huge Sparty-Purdue game in EL. The winner of that is in, I think. Sparty not out of the woods yet. They need 1 more to sew up a bid, but they have no gimmes' left. ... @ Wis, Pur, @ Ind. I have a really tough time seeing Purdue being left out @ 12-6, ditto for Sparty @ 11-7.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Assuming Wisconsin beats Sparty, that would set up a huge Sparty-Purdue game in EL. The winner of that is in, I think. Sparty not out of the woods yet. They need 1 more to sew up a bid, but they have no gimmes' left. ... @ Wis, Pur, @ Ind. I have a really tough time seeing Purdue being left out @ 12-6, ditto for Sparty @ 11-7.
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I agree that they both probably get in but Purdue's RPI will help indicate how much RPI still matters.
 



Face The Facts said:
I agree that they both probably get in but Purdue's RPI will help indicate how much RPI still matters.
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Well, it never did matter as much as some seem to think. The fact that Southern Mississippi was left out twice over the last decade with an RPI rank in the thirties clearly indicates that isn't the commanding determiner. It's an important factor, maybe even the most heavily weighted factor among the factors, but it's not the sole consideration.

Even if Purdue's RPI rank is in the fifties, that's not bad. If it were lower than a hundred that would be different, but they wouldn't have the conference record they have now if their RPI was that low.
 

If I could have one game back, it would be Purdue. That one set the tone for the season. I was out of town and listened to the game on XM via Purdue's call. They were so down on their team that they were just hoping to make it close.
 

Breakin' The Plane said:
If I could have one game back, it would be Purdue. That one set the tone for the season. I was out of town and listened to the game on XM via Purdue's call. They were so down on their team that they were just hoping to make it close.
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this. Changed the psyche of both teams. The Gophers had given up big leads against Georgia and Wake Forest and survived, Gave up a lead to St Johns and lost but if they could have survived giving up the big lead against Purdue, I think the confidence level would have soared and Purdue would have just kept floundering. Instead the mentally tough conversations started.
 

Minnesconsin fan said:
this. Changed the psyche of both teams. The Gophers had given up big leads against Georgia and Wake Forest and survived, Gave up a lead to St Johns and lost but if they could have survived giving up the big lead against Purdue, I think the confidence level would have soared and Purdue would have just kept floundering. Instead the mentally tough conversations started.
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I 3rd this. Purdue loss was tone setter for the entire Big Ten season. Have been climbing up hill ever since.
 



SelectionSunday said:
I 3rd this. Purdue loss was tone setter for the entire Big Ten season. Have been climbing up hill ever since.
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I will 4th it. That game was such a let down that you're right, set the tone for the whole B1G Ten Season. I really think had we pulled that game out, it would have changed a lot of things.
 

Minnesconsin fan said:
I think the confidence level would have soared and Purdue would have just kept floundering. Instead the mentally tough conversations started.
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I think a lot more credit for Purdue's season should go to Matt Painter, AJ Hammons, John Octeaus, and Raphael Davis. The two holdovers are having fine seasons and Octeaus was a transfer steal.

The Gophers had ample opportunities to right the ship after that opening loss and Purdue had ample opportunities to fold.
 

How in the world does a team allow N Florida (RPI 166) and Gardner-Webb (RPI 160) to come into your building and disgrace you in front of the local faithful? Then when you face real competition, you pull games out of your arse like a seasoned winner including two from your biggest rival. I'm afraid Purdue will get into the dance and beat a respectable power conference team in round 1 (or 2 if that's how you chose to look at it). In the next game, they face an upset minded Directional State Poly College of Business and Graphic Arts as say a 14 seed and disgrace their fans to end the season.

That's a possibility the way I see it.
 

cjbfbp said:
Well, it never did matter as much as some seem to think. The fact that Southern Mississippi was left out twice over the last decade with an RPI rank in the thirties clearly indicates that isn't the commanding determiner. It's an important factor, maybe even the most heavily weighted factor among the factors, but it's not the sole consideration.

Even if Purdue's RPI rank is in the fifties, that's not bad. If it were lower than a hundred that would be different, but they wouldn't have the conference record they have now if their RPI was that low.
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I will again disagree with you here.
In terms of major conferences, you can draw a line below RPI 49 and if you are above that line you have always been in.

I think that line might blur some with the "American" conference and the new "Big East", etc which muddied the waters some, but from a histrorical perspective, big conference teams don't miss if your top 49. (Top 50 unless your jersey says "Minnesota").
 

Face The Facts said:
I will again disagree with you here.
In terms of major conferences, you can draw a line below RPI 49 and if you are above that line you have always been in.

I
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Do you have a link to the data supporting that assertion? I'm talking about data, not what somebody said on a web page. How many major conference teams with with an RPI below #50 have gotten in? More than a few I would guess.
 

Suppose it depends on which RPI site each of us trust the most (I use Jerry Palm), but I know Missouri finished #49 in Palm's final RPI rankings last year and Mizzou didn't make it. Ole Miss was #48 in 2008 and didn't make it, either. Going back 7-8 years those were the only ones I spotted.
 

Purdue is 8 and 2 in their last 10 games. That helps them gain attention from the selection crew.
 


More of a fact than a myth - but whatever.... Purdue has improved as much as any BT team this season - let's see if they continue to improve as they finish the regular season.
 

freshtrout said:
More of a fact than a myth - but whatever.... Purdue has improved as much as any BT team this season - let's see if they continue to improve as they finish the regular season.
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SelectionSunday, can you remark whether last 10 games is considered in the tournament selection process?
 

Improvement during the season is the point here. Could be 10 games or more, or less.
 


Face The Facts said:
I will again disagree with you here.
In terms of major conferences, you can draw a line below RPI 49 and if you are above that line you have always been in.

I think that line might blur some with the "American" conference and the new "Big East", etc which muddied the waters some, but from a histrorical perspective, big conference teams don't miss if your top 49. (Top 50 unless your jersey says "Minnesota").
Click to expand...

This is another good example of needing to be pessimistic about what you hear or say anywhere, not just on a message. Obviously the poster quoted above had issues spelling histrorical (sic) and he failed in his use of "your" twice -- these are good indicators that what he says may be total nonsense.

If you look back to LAST YEAR.. Missouri was #49 in the RPI on selection sunday.. they did not make the tournament.

This poster "Face The Facts" has made a claim that is patently false and irresponsible.

Now, my sources on the #49 are multiple and include ncaa.org's RPI archive database. It's a good number.

That said, as another example of needing to be careful about what you believe... even the ncaa.org had errors in their RPI rankings published earlier this season. I informed them of the error and they fixed. ESPN last season included teams in their RPI calculations that weren't int he real RPI calculations until there was one week left in the season. No matter who it is - the NCAA, ESPN, or Face The Facts... be careful!

Back to Purdue... I do think it's a very interesting case. I like the usage of Raphael Davis and find it overdue. As stated in the past, Terone Johnson had a low ceiling and held the team back during his time at the school.. the other name that needs to be added to the conversation of this season is freshman Vince Edwards. Enjoyed watching him put up strong numbers in high school and travel, and he's done extremely well as a true frosh this year.

As for their 4 top 50 RPI wins.. Indiana is at risk of dropping below 50.. NC State helped their cause a lot over their past 3 games... but they are not a guaranteed top 50 either.

I think Purdue can be a 12-6 Big Ten regular season team that does not make the tournament (beat Illinois, lose the rest of their games, including first of the BTT).
 

Let's move the line up to #48 then.
 

Lunardi just commented that one more win for Purdue gets them in. Let's see if that holds true.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Suppose it depends on which RPI site each of us trust the most (I use Jerry Palm), but I know Missouri finished #49 in Palm's final RPI rankings last year and Mizzou didn't make it. Ole Miss was #48 in 2008 and didn't make it, either. Going back 7-8 years those were the only ones I spotted.
Click to expand...

Thanks for that information. That is real data.

However, I did check the source cited by Gopher Warrior above (Thanks to him for a reference I hadn't consulted before). I'm assuming that the official NCAA RPI rankings have as much validity as any source for these.

You have the option on that site to check RPI rankings at selected points of the season. They have one option called "Selection" which I'm assuming were the calculated rankings immediately before the NCAA tournament.

I didn't want to make a career of this, so I just selected two years: 2012 and 2013. After glancing who was in vs. not in for those years, here are some notable discoveries about that magic #49 ranking:

Getting in

2013
Cincinnati 50
California 53

2012
Texas 50
South Florida 52
Virginia 53
West Virginia 57
Colorado 62

Not getting in

2013
Southern Miss 31

2012
Marshall 43
Long Beach State 34

Just a quick glance at a small sample like this provides evidence of something that many of us who have followed the tournament over the years have concluded: the committee screws some mid-majors every year in favor of letting more power conference teams into the tournament.

I assume that they do this because many, if not most of them, have ties to power conferences, they feel that those teams can sell more tickets and increase TV viewership, and feel that the power conference coaches are under more pressure to make the tournament.
 

Here's a follow up to my post above ---- One more year

Year 2011

Follow up – Year 2011

Getting in
Michigan 52
Florida State 55
Clemson 57
Marquette 64
USC 67

Not Getting in
Harvard 35
Cleveland State 42
Missouri State 43
St. Mary’s 46

OK, this is just three years of archival data from probably the most likely of sources (NCAA.org) used in the selection decision. Whether theirs has the best computation is not really relevant for this purpose.

It's the same story as above. Toss out a few mid majors with better rankings to make room for additional power conference teams.

Is there anyone who still believes with certainty that Rank #49 is a firm number?

Is there anyone who still believes firmly that Purdue, if they have an RPI in the fifties, will not be selected given their placement in the Big Ten?
 

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