Ranked 15th in 3PT% in Country, 308th for FT%

Gopher Warrior said:

Good grief. No. Possessions don't matter. What you do with possessions matter. The most important thing you can do to win basketball games is to make field goal attempts (effective field goal percentage).

The other things you can do with a possession are turn it over, go to the free throw line or miss a shot and the other team gets the ball. Those three things (turnovers, rebounds and especially free throw trips) are not nearly as important as the other factor --- effective field goal percentage.

Tempo, or possessions aren't what matters. It's a style issue, not one of efficiency. Each team has approximately the same number of possessions in a basketball game... duuuuuuuh. Use that mind a little my friend.

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GW, it's a pretty well established theory that you are nuts, so I'll go with that one in regard to your comments. When you started with the sentence, "Possessions don't matter", you lost my attention.

I understand that you are using an equation to try figure out points scored. I'm not going to take the time to do the math. I'm just going to take a quick look at any box score and see who wins rebounds and turnovers. It's easy and accurate. If you wish to pull out your abacus and slide rule...be my guest.

Are we using different definitions of possessions? Shouldn't possessions by definition be identical for both teams in every game (or at least within two if one team manages to start both halves with the first possession and end with the last possession)? In basketball, possessions alternate, whether my possession ends with making a shot, turning it over, or a defensive rebound, at the end of the day you won't have a possession until I am done with mine, at which point you have a possession until I get another one . Is there some formal definition of possessions I am missing? (Pardon the ignorance of a non-basketball guy).

bleedsmaroonandgold said:

Are we using different definitions of possessions? Shouldn't possessions by definition be identical for both teams in every game (or at least within two if one team manages to start both halves with the first possession and end with the last possession)? In basketball, possessions alternate, whether my possession ends with making a shot, turning it over, or a defensive rebound, at the end of the day you won't have a possession until I am done with mine, at which point you have a possession until I get another one . Is there some formal definition of possessions I am missing? (Pardon the ignorance of a non-basketball guy).

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You're not wrong.

afurry91 said:

You're not wrong.

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Agreed. However, when I think of possessions, I also consider the number of rebounds that take place in a possession. If one team gets a possession with one attempted shot that is missed, but the other team gets three attempted shots (due to rebounding) with the third shot being scored, the advantage goes to that team who was able to take more shots. Also, with more offensive rebounds comes the added opportunity to get to the free throw line and score.

It's a good question from bleedsmaroon and it also helps in following GW's line of thinking. I'll have to cut GW some slack as I wasn't following his thought process.

I agree that what one does with the possession matters. I just see the simple review of rebounds and turnovers as a quick and easy way of determining who wins. GW is throwing in a more complicated formula to achieve his goal. Nothing wrong with it, but it isn't worth many peoples time to do that.