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SelectionSunday

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RPI updates/sneak preview of UNC-Wilmington

Future Gopher opponent UNCW plays @ Louisville today, 5 p.m. on ESPNU.

Big Ten
21. Wiscy
27. OSU
38. Maryland
42. Sparty
53. Penn State
81. Illinois
82. Gophers
84. Rutgers
88. Northwestern
97. Michigan
120. Iowa
129. Indiana
131. Purdue
144. Nebraska

Gopher Non-Con Opponents
13. Louisville
57. UNC-Wilmington
59. Georgia
62. Saint John's
121. Western Kentucky
174. Wake Forest
198. North Dakota
202. Western Carolina
240. Furman
288. Seattle
315. Southern U
337. UMBC
 

With those RPI numbers, B1G may get only 6 dance invites this year, so Gophers have a lot of work to do in the conference and can't afford a loss to 'higher rated' UNCW, which I noticed was very competitive with Louisville in the second half of today's contest. PSU better RPI than MN??? Interesting. SJU loss was damaging.
 

BOUNDOUTPASSDUNK said:
With those RPI numbers, B1G may get only 6 dance invites this year, so Gophers have a lot of work to do in the conference and can't afford a loss to 'higher rated' UNCW, which I noticed was very competitive with Louisville in the second half of today's contest. PSU better RPI than MN??? Interesting. SJU loss was damaging.
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RPI right now doesn't matter. Crazy to look at unless you're projecting based on assumptions that include results of future games.

As for "SJU loss was damaging." The opposite is true. Unless you understand the ins and outs of the RPI calculations, such conclusions - which may seem logical, are wrong.

Had Minnesota NOT played (and lost) to SJU, their RPI would be FAR WORSE than it is. Losing to St. John's is a huge plus to Minnesota's current RPI.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
RPI right now doesn't matter. Crazy to look at unless you're projecting based on assumptions that include results of future games.

As for "SJU loss was damaging." The opposite is true. Unless you understand the ins and outs of the RPI calculations, such conclusions - which may seem logical, are wrong.

Had Minnesota NOT played (and lost) to SJU, their RPI would be FAR WORSE than it is. Losing to St. John's is a huge plus to Minnesota's current RPI.
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Yes currently, but it remains that way Only if St Johns wins games throughout the season.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
RPI right now doesn't matter. Crazy to look at unless you're projecting based on assumptions that include results of future games.

As for "SJU loss was damaging." The opposite is true. Unless you understand the ins and outs of the RPI calculations, such conclusions - which may seem logical, are wrong.

Had Minnesota NOT played (and lost) to SJU, their RPI would be FAR WORSE than it is. Losing to St. John's is a huge plus to Minnesota's current RPI.
Click to expand...

Hogwash playing and losing to Gozaga would've help our RPI out much more even if St Johns would be ranked lower.
 


Angry said:
Hogwash playing and losing to Gozaga would've help our RPI out much more even if St Johns would be ranked lower.
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What are you saying is hogwash? You appear to be making things up.

What does "would be ranked lower" mean and what does it have to do with this discussion?

This thread was about current RPI. Minnesota's current RPI benefitted from playing and losing to St. John's. Pure facts.
 

The St John's loss is damaging. Killed our SOS. You said it wasn't damaging.
 

Angry said:
The St John's loss is damaging. Killed our SOS. You said it wasn't damaging.
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The fact that we lost to St. Johns is not in and of itself damaging, like Gopher warrior said. However, not playing Gonzaga did hurt. So you're both right.
 

Angry said:
The St John's loss is damaging. Killed our SOS. You said it wasn't damaging.
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No. Playing St. John's greatly improved Minnesota's SOS.

Took me awhile, but I think I get what you're trying to say (without saying it).

Beating St John's would have allowed (in hindsight) MN to play Gonzaga, which would have helped RPI SOS. In that regard, it was a missed opp. However, playing and losing to St John's was beneficial to MN's current RPI as compared to not playing them at all.
 



Clearly we would be better off if we'd beaten St. John's and lost to Gonzaga than losing to St. John's and beat UGa.

Yes, the mere act of playing St. John's and losing is better than not having played them (or in the NIT) at all, but that doesn't seem relevant to the discussion.
 

Obviously GW the RPI is not static and it is early. But my point remains that the B1G is not right now a power conference and there won't be wiggle room like finishing 9-9 in the conference with a 1 and out in the B1G tourney and expect to join the dance. This is particularly true with the underwhelming non-conf. schedule. Playing and losing to St. Johns didn't "greatly improve" our SOS. It helped a little. Now, if we BEAT Mich, Michigan State, Neb, OSU and Wisc during conf play, team fortunes will rise dramatically and we will "greatly improve" our strength of schedule. Go Gophers.
 





Here are a smattering of teams ranked well above us (and in the top 50) of the RPI:

#9 - Wisconsin Green Bay
#22 – Buffalo
#29 – Boise St.
#31 – UTEP
#34 – Rhode Island
#36 – Gardner Webb
#39 – Incarnate Word
#44 – UNC Wilmington
#45 – Old Dominion
#47 – Yale

I know I'm biased but I'm pretty confident that the Gophers would win 8 of 10 games against these opponents. I guess we have a chance to beat one of them when we meet UNC Wilmington.
 


It's not just the RPI and the related metrics you reference, which do have early value - it's actually watching conference games. While PSU and Ill are improved and arguably Wisc is the same team from last year, Mich, MSU are down, OSU is probably down, Maryland is good, NEB is overrated, there's fluff thereafter and the Gophers have a real opportunity here with a veteran albeit thin squad.

My theme in this thread is to acknowledge that it remains early in the season and teams will elevate or deflate, but I just think that the Gophers have to part of the top 6 to get in. I remain hopeful! GG.
 

Boundout, from what I've seen so far would agree with your general outlook on the Big Ten. I see one dominant team (Wisconsin), and a lot of decent to above-average teams after that. Only Rutgers should be really, really, really bad, perhaps Northwestern, too?

There are only 3 teams I'd feel completely comfortable saying, "They'll be in the NCAA Tournament". ... Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State. After that it's anybody's guess who gets the other (presumed) 3-4 bids.
 

BOUNDOUTPASSDUNK said:
It's not just the RPI and the related metrics you reference, which do have early value - it's actually watching conference games.
Click to expand...

Yes, but without relation to the rest of the major conferences, simply ONLY watching Big Ten games and comparing this year to last year does no good in determining the league's worth this year and how it might impact NCAA tourney berths.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I see one dominant team (Wisconsin), and a lot of decent to above-average teams after that. Only Rutgers should be really, really, really bad, perhaps Northwestern, too?
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I've watched Rutgers a couple of times and I don't think they are "really, really, really bad." They have a good point guard and two good forwards who could quite possibly start for multiple Big Ten teams. They just have no depth.
 

tjgopher said:
Yes, but without relation to the rest of the major conferences, simply ONLY watching Big Ten games and comparing this year to last year does no good in determining the league's worth this year and how it might impact NCAA tourney berths.
Click to expand...

I don't think he was trying to say that. I think he meant to say "watching Big Ten teams." Obviously no one can be watching Big Ten conference games right now.
 

BOUNDOUTPASSDUNK said:
It's not just the RPI and the related metrics you reference, which do have early value - it's actually watching conference games. While PSU and Ill are improved and arguably Wisc is the same team from last year, Mich, MSU are down, OSU is probably down, Maryland is good, NEB is overrated, there's fluff thereafter and the Gophers have a real opportunity here with a veteran albeit thin squad.
Click to expand...

Nebraska has a problem similar to ours only worse - depth. Each team has only nine scholarship players. The difference between them and us is that we have much better offensive balance among our nine and they have negligible size because of two key injuries (even without those injuries they didn't have much size). We have 6 guys averaging 9 points or more while they have only two. So much of their offense goes through those two guys that defenses know where to concentrate their efforts. The fact that we've averaged 9 more points per game than them (with a similarly rated schedule) pretty much speaks for itself.

I wouldn't say that OSU is down. Their schedule has been pretty crappy so far so it's tough to evaluate them with confidence but my guess is that they will perform better in the conference than last year. I would add that I believe Iowa is down because of losing depth and their most reliable scorer.
 

cjbfbp said:
I don't think he was trying to say that. I think he meant to say "watching Big Ten teams." Obviously no one can be watching Big Ten conference games right now.
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Either way he meant it, the Big Ten cannot be viewed in vacuum when discussing it as a power conference or not. Obviously, it has to be compared to the other conferences, and right now, it holds it own and then some. That's all I'm saying. We know the warts so we think its worse. All leagues have some warts right now. It is all relative, though. At the end of the day, a 14-team power league is going to get its fair share of teams in the tourney.
 

tjgopher said:
Either way he meant it, the Big Ten cannot be viewed in vacuum when discussing it as a power conference or not. Obviously, it has to be compared to the other conferences, and right now, it holds it own and then some. That's all I'm saying. We know the warts so we think its worse. All leagues have some warts right now. It is all relative, though. At the end of the day, a 14-team power league is going to get its fair share of teams in the tourney.
Click to expand...

I agree that the conference will likely land 7 teams in the tournament if for no other reasons than tradition and size. I don't think anyone is saying that the status of other conferences doesn't need to be considered. The poster was just saying that watching this non-conference season can give one a reasonable inference that the conference is overall a bit weaker than in some other years. Right now there are 8 Big Ten teams with 3 or more losses and there is still some of the non-conference season left. The conference usually performs better than that at this time of year.

I realize the conference won the Big Ten-ACC challenge but that was largely because our middle and lower teams beat most of their middle and lower teams while their higher rated teams beat most of ours.
 

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