Media Predictions: Citrus Bowl

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Gopher07

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Starting us off with a super-early prediction is CFN.

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl, Jan. 1
Minnesota vs. Missouri

- Missouri might have been blasted by Alabama in the SEC championship, but that was truly a Happy To Be There moment for the two-time defending SEC East champion. The pass rush didn’t show it against the Tide, but it’s still among the best in the country on a defense that allowed just 344 yards per game. The offense is sputtering with a mediocre passing game and not enough points until they’re absolutely necessary, but it’s still the SEC East champ coming off a ten-win season. Considering the early season loss to Indiana, and the blowout to Georgia, this is important.

- Minnesota was supposed to be better, but no one thought it was supposed to be in the mix for the Big Ten championship up until the final game of the regular season. The Gophers gagged away a loss to Illinois, but the other three defeats came to Ohio State, TCU and Wisconsin – all acceptable. The passing game is non-existent, but David Cobb and the power running game controlled the clock for most of the season, helping out a defense that turned out to be fantastic against the pass. With three losses in the final four games, a win really would be a big deal going into the offseason – this is a program that would feed off of the momentum.

First Reaction: Alabama was able to power on Missouri when it had to, and Georgia ran wild in Columbia. The Mizzou pass rush won’t matter much against a Minnesota ground game that’s going to pound and pound some more with a rejuvenated David Cobb. What will the motivation factor be for the Tigers? They’ll show up, but Minnesota will control the time of possession in a big way.

First Prediction: Minnesota 34 … Missouri 20

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1488949.html
 

Looks good to me...hope they are right on the money with this one as a double digit bowl victory would be a great way to cap the season.
 

CFN has always been the best predictor!
 


- Minnesota was supposed to be better, but no one thought it was supposed to be in the mix for the Big Ten championship up until the final game of the regular season. The Gophers gagged away a loss to Illinois, but the other three defeats came to Ohio State, TCU and Wisconsin – all acceptable. The passing game is non-existent, but David Cobb and the power running game controlled the clock for most of the season, helping out a defense that turned out to be fantastic against the pass. With three losses in the final four games, a win really would be a big deal going into the offseason – this is a program that would feed off of the momentum.

Hopefully their predicting skills are better than their research department. We went 2-2 in our last four (W vs. Iowa, L vs. Ohio State, W @ Nebraska, L @ Wisconsin).
 


How is the Mizzou run defense? I keep hearing how good their pass rush is, which I don't really care about. We'll be passing the ball 17 times so big deal.

The question is can they stop the run?
 

Found my own answer. The answer is yes. They allow 3.5 yards per carry.

I don't think we score 34 points, but I think they have Missouri estimated pretty good at 20. If we win I think we win 24-20 or 27-20 or something like that.
 

afurry91 said:
How is the Mizzou run defense? I keep hearing how good their pass rush is, which I don't really care about. We'll be passing the ball 17 times so big deal.

The question is can they stop the run?
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You must have missed the Indiana game. Indiana ran all over them.. Hopefully Cobb can just destroy them.
 

bottlebass said:
You must have missed the Indiana game. Indiana ran all over them.. Hopefully Cobb can just destroy them.
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They have unquestionably a top 30 run defense. I think we should probably stop referencing the Indiana game from 3 months ago. Unless we plan on referring to our Illinois game frequently for the next 3 weeks.
 




afurry91 said:
They have unquestionably a top 30 run defense. I think we should probably stop referencing the Indiana game from 3 months ago. Unless we plan on referring to our Illinois game frequently for the next 3 weeks.
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Instead of stating them as a top 30 run defense you should have stated they are the 30th best rush defense. Its less scary and less unquestionably great...
 

bottlebass said:
Instead of stating them as a top 30 run defense you should have stated they are the 30th best rush defense. Its less scary and less unquestionably great...
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Depends on what stat you look at.

Yards per game: 30th
Yards per carry: 23rd

I'll stick with top 30.
 

afurry91 said:
Depends on what stat you look at.

Yards per game: 30th
Yards per carry: 23rd

I'll stick with top 30.
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The only top 30 rush offense team they beat was arkansas. The lost to indiana and georgia. Luckily the gophers are also in the top 30 of rush offense. 30th best rush defense vs 25th best rush offense
 



Like others have said, Mizzou has a good defense, but struggle when their opponent's offense is run-heavy. This is a very good thing for us. However, as much as we like to run the ball, we all know that wins and losses are (more often than not) in the hands of Mitch Leidner. When have we won when Mitch has visibly struggled?

I've been critical of Leidner, but am also a fan of his, and most definitely haven't lost faith that he has the ability to step up and pull out impressive wins - even against a good pass defense. As far as I'm concerned, this will be a wonderful opportunity for him to show that despite his growing pains, he is growing - no doubt. His junior year will be even better and it starts Jan 1.

Strange things happen in bowl games, and they very often do not have anything resembling the "feel" of the regular season which precedes it.

I like the Gophers; not because David Cobb's Gopher swan song will be memorable, and the defense will be solid, but because Mitch Leidner will have his most impressive game yet (given our opponents' strengths).
 

Don't forget about the return from injury of Drew Wolitarsky. Last bowl game, if you remember, he had his best game as a Gopher.
 

Contrary to popular belief, I think our success has very little to do with Mitch Leidner. He is what he is...an elite running QB that is inconsistent throwing the ball. When our running game is shut down, we lose.
 

afurry91 said:
Depends on what stat you look at.

Yards per game: 30th
Yards per carry: 23rd

I'll stick with top 30.
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Depends on how you're looking at it. They also had 42 sacks (number 6 in the country) for 281 lost yards which carries to an extra 3 carries for -21 yards per game so against the actual run their numbers are 2049 yards on 457 carries which is an average of 4.5 yards. Not saying that this means their run D is bad, but when you're subtracting that many yards a game based on pass rush, it skews it. There's a reason that Indiana, Bama, and Georgia ran all over them.
 

GopherHomer said:
Contrary to popular belief, I think our success has very little to do with Mitch Leidner. He is what he is...an elite running QB that is inconsistent throwing the ball. When our running game is shut down, we lose.
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Elite?
 


Missouri will be favored and rightly so. Gophers will have to play at the Iowa level to win this one.
 

Urbandale said:
Don't forget about the return from injury of Drew Wolitarsky. Last bowl game, if you remember, he had his best game as a Gopher.
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I don't think that's a compliment for a kid that was to 'break out' this year.
 

Great Plains Gopher said:
Missouri will be favored and rightly so. Gophers will have to play at the Iowa level to win this one.
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If we play like we did in the Iowa game we would beat 3/4 of the playoff teams in that game. We need to play more at the level we did inthe Nebraska win. Grind the ball out. Hit 1-2 big throws but ware their defense down so we can move the ball at will in the 4th qtr to win a close game by staying in our running offense. This is basically what Wisconsin did to us.
 

The Indiana game is an aberration. The team came out absolutely flat and thought they could just show up and win. The Tigers were also missing Marcus Golden for the entire game and Shane Ray for half the game. They're our staring DE's, Ray will be a top-10 pick and Golden will be a likely late 1st rounder.

Mizzou is actually very good against the run, keeping every team it's played below it's per carry average. Here's where the D struggles: When they're left out on the field the whole game...

In the Georgia game, Mizzou had 5 turnovers. UGA average field position was at something ridiculous like the Mizzou 45. And Mizzou's Time of Possession was minuscule. The defense simply ran out of gas...

The same thing happened in the Alabama game. It was 21-13 Bama going into the 4th Quarter... but the Mizzou D ran out of gas; again, the Time of Possession was heavily skewed. The Tigers offense was whipped all game long by the Bama D.

Sooo... If you want to be able to run the ball on Mizzou, here's the key: Stifle our very average offense. And make not mistake, it's very average to maybe even bad. Maty Mauk throws a pretty deep ball, and he's very good at it. But everything else -- short and intermediate -- he's so-so. He also has been absolutely KILLED by drops. Mizzou, I believe, led FBS teams in drops this year (don't quote me on that stat... but if they didn't lead, they were in the top 5).

What Mizzou does fairly well is run the ball. They also do decent on third downs to keep drives alive. But if you stop our running game, keep us to 3rd and longs, you'll eventually wear down our D. That's the recipe for beating Mizzou.

I firmly believe, considering your style of play, this will be a tight game going into the fourth quarter. I also believe Minnesota will probably lead going into half time -- Mizzou this year has started PAINFULLY slow in most every game. The game will be won in the second half. If you keep forcing 3 & outs, you'll wear out Mizzou's defense and put the game away. BUT.... if the time of possession is fairly even, watch out. Mizzou has been a 4th quarter team all year.

All of that being said, who the hell knows? It's a bowl game. One team may not give two sh*ts and absolutely tank. There's a reason why I don't gamble during bowl season. You really never know what teams you're going to get... especially with such a long layoff.
 

Question: is Shane Ray eligible for this game after getting ejected for targetting? Or does he miss the first half?
 

upnorthkid said:
Question: is Shane Ray eligible for this game after getting ejected for targetting? Or does he miss the first half?
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He is eligible for the entire game, as he sat out the second half of the SEC Championship game.
 

The last thing I want to do is come to your board and brag about my team -- it's poor taste. But I will break my rule this one time...

The one thing Mizzou is extraordinary at is churning out NFL defensive linemen, many of whom turn into stars.. Ray and Golden this year. Last year it was Kony Ealy (2nd round pick) and Michael Sam (everyone knows his story, but outside of being gay, he was the SEC defensive player of the year). Before those guys, Sheldon Richardson (1st rounder, NFL defensive rookie of the year and a stud). Before Big Shel, it was Aldon Smith (broke the rookie NFL sack record). Before Aldon, it was Ziggy Hood (1st rounder, Steelers)... Long before Ziggy was Justin Smith of 49ers (perennial All Pro). And I'm not even counting the other defensive linemen who were undrafted but are now with NFL teams, like Jacquies Smith and CJ Mosley and several others.

It's been a joy for us Mizzou fans to watch...

Outside of Ray and Golden, the NEXT Mizzou star is Harold Brantley. He's a DT and got All SEC honors by both the coaches and media... He's also only a sophomore. Another very good player.
 

MizzouBob said:
The Indiana game is an aberration. The team came out absolutely flat and thought they could just show up and win. The Tigers were also missing Marcus Golden for the entire game and Shane Ray for half the game. They're our staring DE's, Ray will be a top-10 pick and Golden will be a likely late 1st rounder.

Mizzou is actually very good against the run, keeping every team it's played below it's per carry average. Here's where the D struggles: When they're left out on the field the whole game...

In the Georgia game, Mizzou had 5 turnovers. UGA average field position was at something ridiculous like the Mizzou 45. And Mizzou's Time of Possession was minuscule. The defense simply ran out of gas...

The same thing happened in the Alabama game. It was 21-13 Bama going into the 4th Quarter... but the Mizzou D ran out of gas; again, the Time of Possession was heavily skewed. The Tigers offense was whipped all game long by the Bama D.

Sooo... If you want to be able to run the ball on Mizzou, here's the key: Stifle our very average offense. And make not mistake, it's very average to maybe even bad. Maty Mauk throws a pretty deep ball, and he's very good at it. But everything else -- short and intermediate -- he's so-so. He also has been absolutely KILLED by drops. Mizzou, I believe, led FBS teams in drops this year (don't quote me on that stat... but if they didn't lead, they were in the top 5).

What Mizzou does fairly well is run the ball. They also do decent on third downs to keep drives alive. But if you stop our running game, keep us to 3rd and longs, you'll eventually wear down our D. That's the recipe for beating Mizzou.

I firmly believe, considering your style of play, this will be a tight game going into the fourth quarter. I also believe Minnesota will probably lead going into half time -- Mizzou this year has started PAINFULLY slow in most every game. The game will be won in the second half. If you keep forcing 3 & outs, you'll wear out Mizzou's defense and put the game away. BUT.... if the time of possession is fairly even, watch out. Mizzou has been a 4th quarter team all year.

All of that being said, who the hell knows? It's a bowl game. One team may not give two sh*ts and absolutely tank. There's a reason why I don't gamble during bowl season. You really never know what teams you're going to get... especially with such a long layoff.
Click to expand...

Kill has only lost once when leading at half time as a gopher coach. I think he has only won 1 time when trailing at half time.
 

btowngopher said:
Kill has only lost once when leading at half time as a gopher coach. I think he has only won 1 time when trailing at half time.
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2 times. We did it twice this year purdue and nebraska.

Mizzoubob I'm really liking your info, keep it coming! I agree with you our best chance is to keep the game close and tire your defense out so we can move the ball well in our normal offense at the end of the game. This is how we beat Nebraska this year putting up 21 points in the 2nd half while coming from behind to win. My biggest concern is with playing you guys is that your defensive line can really get after the QB and our QB is notoriously bad when getting pressured (see our wisconsin game). If he is given the time and a clean pocket to step into the can actually hit some big throws but rush him and he is horribly inaccurate and turns the ball over. The battle between our O line and your D-line will be what decides this game (from our success point anyway).

Keep the info coming dude.
 

MizzouBob said:
The Indiana game is an aberration. The team came out absolutely flat and thought they could just show up and win. The Tigers were also missing Marcus Golden for the entire game and Shane Ray for half the game. They're our staring DE's, Ray will be a top-10 pick and Golden will be a likely late 1st rounder.

Mizzou is actually very good against the run, keeping every team it's played below it's per carry average. Here's where the D struggles: When they're left out on the field the whole game...

In the Georgia game, Mizzou had 5 turnovers. UGA average field position was at something ridiculous like the Mizzou 45. And Mizzou's Time of Possession was minuscule. The defense simply ran out of gas...

The same thing happened in the Alabama game. It was 21-13 Bama going into the 4th Quarter... but the Mizzou D ran out of gas; again, the Time of Possession was heavily skewed. The Tigers offense was whipped all game long by the Bama D.

Sooo... If you want to be able to run the ball on Mizzou, here's the key: Stifle our very average offense. And make not mistake, it's very average to maybe even bad. Maty Mauk throws a pretty deep ball, and he's very good at it. But everything else -- short and intermediate -- he's so-so. He also has been absolutely KILLED by drops. Mizzou, I believe, led FBS teams in drops this year (don't quote me on that stat... but if they didn't lead, they were in the top 5).

What Mizzou does fairly well is run the ball. They also do decent on third downs to keep drives alive. But if you stop our running game, keep us to 3rd and longs, you'll eventually wear down our D. That's the recipe for beating Mizzou.

I firmly believe, considering your style of play, this will be a tight game going into the fourth quarter. I also believe Minnesota will probably lead going into half time -- Mizzou this year has started PAINFULLY slow in most every game. The game will be won in the second half. If you keep forcing 3 & outs, you'll wear out Mizzou's defense and put the game away. BUT.... if the time of possession is fairly even, watch out. Mizzou has been a 4th quarter team all year.

All of that being said, who the hell knows? It's a bowl game. One team may not give two sh*ts and absolutely tank. There's a reason why I don't gamble during bowl season. You really never know what teams you're going to get... especially with such a long layoff.
Click to expand...

Any other Gopher fans reading this feel like he could have been describing our team if the names were changed? These two teams strike me as being very similar. I would expect this to be a very even matchup and good game. On paper it looks like it will be a defensive struggle which probably means it will turn into a track meet.
 

bottlebass said:
2 times. We did it twice this year purdue and nebraska.

Mizzoubob I'm really liking your info, keep it coming! I agree with you our best chance is to keep the game close and tire your defense out so we can move the ball well in our normal offense at the end of the game. This is how we beat Nebraska this year putting up 21 points in the 2nd half while coming from behind to win. My biggest concern is with playing you guys is that your defensive line can really get after the QB and our QB is notoriously bad when getting pressured (see our wisconsin game). If he is given the time and a clean pocket to step into the can actually hit some big throws but rush him and he is horribly inaccurate and turns the ball over. The battle between our O line and your D-line will be what decides this game (from our success point anyway).

Keep the info coming dude.
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Well, from what I understand, your QB has wheels. Mobile QBs have always had the most success against us, because they're able to escape the pressure.

I really think this is going to be a good game.

And you're very welcome for the info! Love talking ball!

MNVCGUY said:
Any other Gopher fans reading this feel like he could have been describing our team if the names were changed? These two teams strike me as being very similar. I would expect this to be a very even matchup and good game. On paper it looks like it will be a defensive struggle which probably means it will turn into a track meet.
Click to expand...

Isn't that the truth? You never know with these bowl games.... Are the kids going to be motivated? I mean, that's a long layoff...
 

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