What's Your Gut Telling You?

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DoubleAlum

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On vacation this week, got too much time on my hands and, of course, we've got a bye week. Time to generate some good discussion.

Trying to recognize some "patterns" to Gopher football play under Jerry Kill and company to predict the outcome of the Iowa game. It's kind of tough to do I suppose cause we have a limited body of work to look at. One could say that the pattern under Mason was to start strong and end weak both in games and in season performances. Perhaps that's unfair and a poor generalization, but I think many on GH believe that.

My gut is telling me something different about the Jerry Kill Gophers. He, his staff and the players seem to bounce back pretty strong both in games and in the season (at least last season). They're fighters and have a lot of pride in their craft. In addition:

1. we have a bye week to get healthier and stronger;
2. we have a bye week for additional preparation, planning and strategizing;
3. Mitch Leidner has additional time to work on his technique and timing with the receivers;
4. Cobb gets additional much needed rest;
5. Iowa lost to Maryland who was routed by Wisconsin;
6. Iowa will likely have a tough opponent in Northwestern;
7. We play at TCF;

Iowa held Purdue to 160 total yards, which is a little concerning.

Overall, my gut tells me this is going to be a dog-fight but the Gophers will find a way to pull this one out in a very close game. GOPHERS take the Pig!! I realize this is a pretty unsophisticated analysis, but I know some of you guys will provide some more sophisticated thinking, which is why I started this thread. I like to get your thoughts and ideas.

What does your gut tell you?
 

Nice write-up. I agree with most of this, except maybe 3 and 5. As to 3, I think in terms of a quarterbacks technique development, 2 weeks is to short of a time horizon to see major development, and it would be risky to try to change a quarterbacks throwing motion with that little time to get used to it. For number 5, I don't put too much credence in the transitive property of football. We also beat Northwestern who beat Wisconsin who beat Illinois.

I want to see a stronger start against Iowa. After losing a disappointing game but still controlling your own destiny, and getting to come home and play again a rival, you should be ready to play from the get go and not need any kind of wakeup call. If this Gopher team is the Gopher team I think it is, I expect to see them give us a great effort and a great performance in this one.
 

#3 - Leidner has had plenty of time to work on his technique and timing with the receivers. these last couple of weeks aren't going to make a whole lot of difference in that area.
 

A pattern I've noticed is that the team tends to play better with an extra week of preparation, and comes out worse when the opponent has a bye the week before facing us. That's held true so far at least for this year; too lazy to take a look at the past couple seasons. But the comfortable win against Michigan and the losses to Illinois and TCU follow this pattern.
 

My gut tells me we'll come out strong against Iowa and give them our best effort, but I'm just not sure that will be enough given some of the shortcomings we know we have. Losing a close one at home could be the straw that breaks the camel's back, and with three tough games on the schedule after that, we end up demoralized and thinking "what could have been" after the good start to the conference season as we go on to lose in snowballing fashion.

My heart says the defense is done being subpar after the bye week, holds Iowa to <20 points, and gets back to creating turnovers with some regularity. A win over Iowa gives us confidence heading into the final three, and though we don't win them all, we make at least one of them really interesting.
 


DoubleAlum said:
On vacation this week, got too much time on my hands and, of course, we've got a bye week. Time to generate some good discussion.

Trying to recognize some "patterns" to Gopher football play under Jerry Kill and company to predict the outcome of the Iowa game. It's kind of tough to do I suppose cause we have a limited body of work to look at. One could say that the pattern under Mason was to start strong and end weak both in games and in season performances. Perhaps that's unfair and a poor generalization, but I think many on GH believe that.

My gut is telling me something different about the Jerry Kill Gophers. He, his staff and the players seem to bounce back pretty strong both in games and in the season (at least last season). They're fighters and have a lot of pride in their craft. In addition:

1. we have a bye week to get healthier and stronger;
2. we have a bye week for additional preparation, planning and strategizing;
3. Mitch Leidner has additional time to work on his technique and timing with the receivers;
4. Cobb gets additional much needed rest;
5. Iowa lost to Maryland who was routed by Wisconsin;
6. Iowa will likely have a tough opponent in Northwestern;
7. We play at TCF;

Iowa held Purdue to 160 total yards, which is a little concerning.

Overall, my gut tells me this is going to be a dog-fight but the Gophers will find a way to pull this one out in a very close game. GOPHERS take the Pig!! I realize this is a pretty unsophisticated analysis, but I know some of you guys will provide some more sophisticated thinking, which is why I started this thread. I like to get your thoughts and ideas.

What does your gut tell you?
Click to expand...

What will be interesting is to see if the gameplan looks like it has stewed for 2 weeks and is anything different. If our defense comes out and gives up 2 straight touchdown drives, we'll know the staff used the week off to take a week off. If the offense looks to surprise Iowa anytime in the game by running a Berkley Edwards sweep for -6 yards, we'll know the staff used the week off to take a week off.

My gut is telling me one of those 2 things will happen.
 

DoubleAlum said:
Iowa held Purdue to 160 total yards, which is a little concerning.

What does your gut tell you?
Click to expand...

I agree, but I think that was before Purdue's offense really took off and found its identity.
 

BJN said:
A pattern I've noticed is that the team tends to play better with an extra week of preparation, and comes out worse when the opponent has a bye the week before facing us. That's held true so far at least for this year; too lazy to take a look at the past couple seasons. But the comfortable win against Michigan and the losses to Illinois and TCU follow this pattern.
Click to expand...

Not to nitpick but we played Michigan before our first bye this season. Northwestern was our game coming out of the bye and we did not play all that well in that one.
 

my gut tells me that the Gophers are just not as talented yet as some thought/hoped. That doesn't mean they can't continue to upgrade the talent level in future years -but for this year, it means (IMHO) they have to play mistake-free football to beat good teams. This team just doesn't have the raw ability to overcome turnovers and penalties. In general, this coaching staff would prefer to play it safe - but I don't know if that will be enough to win any of the four remaining games. To beat IA and WI, the Gophers are going to have to show the opponents something different. I don't want to get into the whole Leidner/Limegrover debate again, but I have to admit that the Gophs are probably an easier team to prepare for. The coaching staff has to do something to change that - even if it goes against their 1st instincts.
 



short ornery norwegian said:
my gut tells me that the Gophers are just not as talented yet as some thought/hoped. That doesn't mean they can't continue to upgrade the talent level in future years -but for this year, it means (IMHO) they have to play mistake-free football to beat good teams. This team just doesn't have the raw ability to overcome turnovers and penalties. In general, this coaching staff would prefer to play it safe - but I don't know if that will be enough to win any of the four remaining games. To beat IA and WI, the Gophers are going to have to show the opponents something different. I don't want to get into the whole Leidner/Limegrover debate again, but I have to admit that the Gophs are probably an easier team to prepare for. The coaching staff has to do something to change that - even if it goes against their 1st instincts.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure Iowa is as talented as any hoped they would be. Maybe it's simply bye week blues but I'm not terribly confident about playing the Gophers at TCF. I've been very impressed so far with the Gophers and the Hawkeye run defense has functioned as a sieve the last few weeks.
 

My gut tells e it'll all depend on how the game plays out between Leidners ears. When Leidner relaxes he throws better and has less problems with his mechanics. When he gets geeked up we get performances like Illinois.
 





The past two years we've gone into the Iowa game with some excitement, and both times the Hawkeyes punched us in the face and beat us playing the game we're trying to play. Our OL has been a disappointment and our DL is promising but young. I expect us to get out-toughed in the trenches again.
 

Mine is telling me:

Don't second guess Kill and staff. They see everything we do and are far better equipped to respond.
We are what most people thought pre-season, young, improving, building depth, inconsistent. Not elite.
The schedule is as expected, good first two thirds, but now looks daunting.
There are no inferior opponents for this team. Fans and media created that faulty perception.
Leidner struggles with confidence. The game is not slowing down for him, not consistently. Work in progress, but he's running on limited time, like the rest of this season. I'm not expecting a lot and hope to be surprised.
Lots of things I personally would like to see, same frustrations as many other fans, but again confident the coaches get it and are doing what they believe is most likely to succeed.
Still like watching this hard working bunch.
 

My gut tells me nothing. My brain tells me that everything hinges on the Line play.
 

My gut is telling me to go to Chipotle.
 

Gut says that we have over achieved this year already and will struggle to get any more wins. We have seemingly gotten worse every Big 10 game, and against Illinois and Purdue we had some very alarming defensive lapses.

I'm hoping that with the extra week off, the offense can figure out some new wrinkles in to keep other teams from stacking up against the run, and we can make them pay of they do. The "Run til they stop it" mentality is great, except when they do stop it and you suddenly realize you can't do anything else. The play action bombs are nice, but that is only one counter punch and eventually they'll be able to figure that out too. I think we immediately need to show something that will help keep other defenses on their toes, especially with OSU coming to town after Iowa.

The Iowa game is the easiest remaining on our schedule, so if we can't win against them then we will likely lose our last 5 Big Ten games, which would make us a 'run of the mill' 6-6 (3-5) Gopher team which will do nothing (once again) to increase fan support. However, we are still 3-1 in the Big Ten and thus have a great chance to make this the best Gopher season since 2003. So from this perspective the Iowa game is a must win.
 

My gut tells me that the team will find a way to win two of the last five games. The staff with match preparation with the players execution to win two more games. I just don't know which games they will be.
 

Mine tells me we certainly went on a ride the past few weeks, eyeing a chance at a B1G title game berth, when we're still a year or 2 away from that type of team.

It tells me we're a solid middle of the pack team who's right in the mix, but still light on experienced playmakers.

It tells me Iowa is less talented than us, at most key positions, and we beat them barring some unforseen injury or crazy circumstance.
 

It tells me we beat Iowa in a close one and then lose the next 3.
 

As much as we have stressed out over the offense, it is the defense in the final four games that has me concerned. Specifically the run defense with the youth and lack of depth up front. My gut tells me we are going to have a hard time slowing down Abdullah and Gordon, making road wins at Nebraska and Wisconsin next to impossible. My gut is even concerned about that plow horse Weisman doing it to us for the 3rd year in a row. That would cause my gut to have indigestion.
 

After a bad loss to Illinois...I think the worst thing that could've happened was a bye week to play Iowa.

We needed the pissed off attitude of losing to such a poor team to use as motivation, now.... we've had
a week to go "oh well, it's just one game." That, I guarantee, will hurt our mojo
 

There have been dozens of threads ripping on the Gophers coaches, QB, Line, execution, etc. They haven't played well in a few games but everyone knows that now. Everyone (myself included) has had sleepless nights thinking about that damn Illinois game. Before we write off Iowa as another loss lets rip them apart a little.

Here is a team that needed a 4th quarter touchdown to put away FCS Northern Iowa.
They then needed a 2 score comeback in the final minutes against a 3-5 MAC team.
Their next game they decide to lose at home to Iowa St. who likely will finish this year with 3 wins. One of those losses was a blowout to FCS NDSU
They then required another late 4th quarter score to beat 4-4 Pittsburgh.

So far in Big Ten play they have only really looked dominant against last place Indiana and recently lost to Maryland. This is the same Maryland team that just lost 52-7 to Wisconsin.

I'm not saying Iowa is a bad team or should be an easy win blah blah blah but I've read and thought a lot of negative things about the Gophers the past few weeks and need a change.
 


tmvander said:
There have been dozens of threads ripping on the Gophers coaches, QB, Line, execution, etc. They haven't played well in a few games but everyone knows that now. Everyone (myself included) has had sleepless nights thinking about that damn Illinois game. Before we write off Iowa as another loss lets rip them apart a little.

Here is a team that needed a 4th quarter touchdown to put away FCS Northern Iowa.
They then needed a 2 score comeback in the final minutes against a 3-5 MAC team.
Their next game they decide to lose at home to Iowa St. who likely will finish this year with 3 wins. One of those losses was a blowout to FCS NDSU
They then required another late 4th quarter score to beat 4-4 Pittsburgh.

So far in Big Ten play they have only really looked dominant against last place Indiana and recently lost to Maryland. This is the same Maryland team that just lost 52-7 to Wisconsin.

I'm not saying Iowa is a bad team or should be an easy win blah blah blah but I've read and thought a lot of negative things about the Gophers the past few weeks and need a change.
Click to expand...

Great Post. Things change a lot from 1-week to the next with 20-year old kids as well.
 

My gut tells me to never trust a f@rt, and to never pass up on a bathroom. :eek:

My gut also tells me we'll take at least one of the last remaining games. :clap:
 

The gophers are a really mediocre team.

So is just about everyone else in the conference. So I was not that shocked by the Illinois win. I think the gophers win 1 of the last 4. It wouldn't shock me if they won 3.


When everyone is so average it is hard to make predictions.

Even the worst teams like Illinois have some talented skill guys. Even the best teams have glaring weakness. Nothing in the big ten would shock me this year.
 

Stan The Caddy said:
As much as we have stressed out over the offense, it is the defense in the final four games that has me concerned. Specifically the run defense with the youth and lack of depth up front. My gut tells me we are going to have a hard time slowing down Abdullah and Gordon, making road wins at Nebraska and Wisconsin next to impossible. My gut is even concerned about that plow horse Weisman doing it to us for the 3rd year in a row. That would cause my gut to have indigestion.
Click to expand...
I agree the defense is worrisome. Tough to maintain when your front end is tired. Little pressure, little contain, and man coverage is a difficult combo to play with.

As vanilla as our offense has been, our defense has been more vanilla than the offense the past 3 weeks.
 

Some guy said:
The gophers are a really mediocre team.

So is just about everyone else in the conference. So I was not that shocked by the Illinois win. I think the gophers win 1 of the last 4. It wouldn't shock me if they won 3.


When everyone is so average it is hard to make predictions.

Even the worst teams like Illinois have some talented skill guys. Even the best teams have glaring weakness. Nothing in the big ten would shock me this year.
Click to expand...

Ya think?
 

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