Updated B1G Projections, courtesy of Bill Connelly and FBSH

Donate To GopherHole
Gopher07

Gopher07

Captain of Awesome
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
9,008
Reaction score
15
Points
38

I haven't watched Nebraska this year. How are they?
 


Schnauzer's projections have the chances of victory over Nebraska slightly higher, and the chances of beating OSU slightly lower than what appears here. At this point, I'd put victory chances over Wisconsin at no better than 50/50... especially considering it is on the road.
 

Maybe I am just a bit gun-shy, and am not complaining, but nonetheless surprised that we are given a 60% chance of winning at Madison (which has not occurred in 20 years).
 


Wisconsin has 1 game with a greater than a 50% chance to win left. Hahahaha
 

mcal24 said:
Wisconsin has 1 game with a greater than a 50% chance to win left. Hahahaha
Click to expand...

Really hope they start to free fall, and have just given up by the time they get to Thanksgiving.
 


afurry91 said:
Really hope they start to free fall, and have just given up by the time they get to Thanksgiving.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I've never understood the "we want 'em at their best" crowd.

I mean, the Gophers have been in free fall a few times in the last decade, and I'm sure that doesn't bother the WI fans one bit as they look back on the victories.
 





What evidence besides questionable QB play is there to support a Wisconsin free fall? They held NW to 20 points on the road (even with 4 INTs) and are averaging 6+ yards per carry like always. If their QB situation gets sorted out and Stave or McEvoy can efficiently manage the offense moving forward, I would predict the Badgers to be right in the B1G West hunt come late November and put our win percentage closer to 30-35% than 60%.
 

Even Gordon can be contained if we don't need to respect the pass. Just ask Northwestern (snark).

I think the overall sentiment is that their passing game is more anemic than ours.

If you believe the f/+ stats guys we are currently playing 10 spots better than Wisconsin. That's probably why the projection is 60% in our favor.

If....we can contain Gordon then our chances are very good. Excited for the game.
 



Hollinsanity said:
What evidence besides questionable QB play is there to support a Wisconsin free fall? They held NW to 20 points on the road (even with 4 INTs) and are averaging 6+ yards per carry like always. If their QB situation gets sorted out and Stave or McEvoy can efficiently manage the offense moving forward, I would predict the Badgers to be right in the B1G West hunt come late November and put our win percentage closer to 30-35% than 60%.
Click to expand...

We are hoping they free fall. We are not predicting a free fall.
 

BarnBoy said:
Agreed. I've never understood the "we want 'em at their best" crowd.

I mean, the Gophers have been in free fall a few times in the last decade, and I'm sure that doesn't bother the WI fans one bit as they look back on the victories.
Click to expand...

Well you wish they were #1 in the country, undefeated and needing one last win to go to the National Championship game, ifffffffff you beat them.

otherwise, I agree, hope they are on a 6 game losing streak and have injured all players and are left with walk-on's only.
 



A 60% chance of winning at Wisconsin? I have some land I'd like to sell this guy...
 

We're talking about containing Gordon less than week after giving huge runs to Purdue. Purdue.
 

Appleby is infinitely scarier than mcavoy or stave (right now). Claeys is aware of this.
 

howeda7 said:
A 60% chance of winning at Wisconsin? I have some land I'd like to sell this guy...
Click to expand...

I was thinking I'd like to pack my pipe with whatever he is smoking. Although I feel our chances this year are better than they have been in a while I don't see us being favored in this game.
 

You guys do understand that he's not just fabricating these predictions out of thin air, right? They're based on statistical modeling - it's not as though he just decided, "Hey, I really like Minnesota right now and I've decided to say that they have a 60% chance of beating Wisconsin."
 

dpodoll68 said:
You guys do understand that he's not just fabricating these predictions out of thin air, right? They're based on statistical modeling - it's not as though he just decided, "Hey, I really like Minnesota right now and I've decided to say that they have a 60% chance of beating Wisconsin."
Click to expand...

Can statistical modeling make me a two egg omelet?
 

dpodoll68 said:
You guys do understand that he's not just fabricating these predictions out of thin air, right? They're based on statistical modeling - it's not as though he just decided, "Hey, I really like Minnesota right now and I've decided to say that they have a 60% chance of beating Wisconsin."
Click to expand...

Not sure what your point is. That doesn't make his predictions any less moronic. 60% chance of winning at Camp Randall? That's absurd.
 

dpodoll68 said:
You guys do understand that he's not just fabricating these predictions out of thin air, right? They're based on statistical modeling - it's not as though he just decided, "Hey, I really like Minnesota right now and I've decided to say that they have a 60% chance of beating Wisconsin."
Click to expand...
Models can be just as flawed as human predictions, but God I hope we beat Wisconsin.
 

We're able to see ahead, and see historical trends beyond this year, while the model only takes into account this season's performance to date. Based solely on performance this year, I would say a 60% chance of winning at CR makes sense. Wisconsin lost to what could potentially be a subpar Northwestern and what could potentially be a subpar LSU. As more data come in that number will change and adjust, but given what the inputs are I think it makes sense.
 

dpodoll68 said:
You guys do understand that he's not just fabricating these predictions out of thin air, right? They're based on statistical modeling - it's not as though he just decided, "Hey, I really like Minnesota right now and I've decided to say that they have a 60% chance of beating Wisconsin."
Click to expand...

That is true, but people are questioning his method because it appears to be an outlier. Sagarin and FO, for example, predict results much more in line with what our eyes tell us. FWIW, FBSH had us crushing Purdue by like 30 points. His model, for whatever reason, really seems to favor some stats that MN produces. I hope like hell he is right and they are wrong, but it's silly to claim that you aren't allowed to question models because they are models.
 

golden boy said:
That is true, but people are questioning his method because it appears to be an outlier. Sagarin and FO, for example, predict results much more in line with what our eyes tell us. FWIW, FBSH had us crushing Purdue by like 30 points. His model, for whatever reason, really seems to favor some stats that MN produces. I hope like hell he is right and they are wrong, but it isn't like you aren't allowed to question models because they are models.
Click to expand...

My eyes saw the LSU collapse and the Northwestern game and were not at all impressed.
 



You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom