Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Should "Lock In" on 22 Wins Prior to Big 10 Tourny

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bleedsmaroonandgold said:
The biggest irony was that we split with Iowa, and they got in over us because while our wins came against weak not-top-50 teams like Iowa, Iowa's wins came against top-50 competition like Minnesota.
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It definitely makes college basketball more interesting though. Gives you a lot of games to watch and teams to root for when MN isn't playing.
 

I think the Wake Forest game needs to be moved to Level 4. Even though it is a road game, Wake Forest has been awful so far, losing by 30 to a mercurial Arkansas team and they are losing at home to Iona with just a couple minutes left. I'd be very disappointed in the Gophers if they somehow lost that game.
 

OSUfan said:
I think the Wake Forest game needs to be moved to Level 4. Even though it is a road game, Wake Forest has been awful so far, losing by 30 to a mercurial Arkansas team and they are losing at home to Iona with just a couple minutes left. I'd be very disappointed in the Gophers if they somehow lost that game.
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I watched the first half of the Arkansas game and Wake looked beyond bad. They were only down 14 but should have been down 30 at half.
 

St. John's is a really big game in my opinion.
Need to get to conference play with only two losses, with those being ideally against Louisville and Gonzaga.
Not Louisville and St. John's.

If we lose 3 in non-conference, we'd be looking at 12-6 in the Big Ten.

12-31 at Purdue
01-03 at Maryland
01-06 Ohio St.
01-10 at Michigan

01-13 Iowa
01-17 Rutgers
01-20 at Nebraska
01-24 Illinois

01-28 at Penn St.
01-31 Nebraska
02-07 Purdue
02-12 at Iowa

02-15 at Indiana
02-18 Northwestern
02-21 at Wisconsin
02-26 at Michigan St.

03-05 Wisconsin
03-08 Penn St.
 

Looking just at the conference schedule......I'm really interested to see how the Gophers do in the four Level 3 conference road games (Purdue, Maryland, Penn State, and Indiana) and the two elite home games (Ohio State and Wisconsin). To me, those six games will determine whether we are looking at an 8 or 9 conference win total or a 12 conference win total. I just don't have a ton of confidence in their ability to win on the road in conference until I see that play out more often.

Level 4 -- win four home games against lesser competition (4-0)
Level 3 -- four swing games (2-2?)
Level 2 -- split Iowa, split Nebraska, win at home against Illinois (3-2)
Level 1 -- lose at Wisconsin/Michigan/Michigan State (0-3)
two swing games (1-1?)

Do better than 3-3 in those swing games and get to 11 plus wins in conference, which would be very solid, in my opinion.

The first three games of conference play is really important as I see it.
 


Agree that the St. John's game is HUGE. If the Gophers don't play Gonzaga our non-conference schedule will suck. Plus, as others have pointed out, Wake Forest isn't likely to help much, other than winning a road game and avoiding a bad loss. Play Gonzaga -- and better yet beat -- and the NC schedule is decent and/or salvageable.
 

Looking WAY ahead, it would be good to get a 6 seed in the BTT if possible just to get a better round 1 matchup and to avoid playing head to head against another bubble team.

With this non-conference schedule, they need to have a winning Big Ten record, which would mean winning two in the BTT if they are bubble-riding when it comes to BTT time.
 

Updated through Saint John's game (3-2): 19 to go

The sun came up today. Let's not panic over one awful 2nd half. Let's get Georgia Friday night.

The updated Gophers' road to 22 wins through Game 5 (Saint John's):

Level 5 (8-0) -- Cupcakes, i.e., basically the non-conference home schedule. (currently 2-0)
Franklin Pierce -- (WON)
UMBC -- (WON)
Western Carolina (Dec. 5)
North Dakota (Dec. 8)
Southern U (Dec. 10)
Seattle (Dec. 19)
Furman (Dec. 22)
NC-Wilmington (Dec. 27)

Level 4 (5-0) -- Decent foes but home losses would hurt resume. (currently 1-0)
Western Kentucky -- (WON)
Rutgers (Jan. 17)
Purdue (Feb. 7)
Northwestern (Feb. 18)
Penn State (March 8)

Level 3 (3-2) -- Should expect Gopher win but loss wouldn't be huge surprise.
@ Wake Forest (Dec. 2)
@ Purdue (Dec. 31)
@ Maryland (Jan. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 28)
@ Indiana (Feb. 15)

Level 2 (4-3) -- Opponents most similar to Gophers, realistic NCAA expectations. (currently 0-1)
@ Saint John's (LOST)
vs. Georgia (Friday)
Iowa (Jan. 13)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 20)
Illinois (Jan. 24)
Nebraska (Jan. 31)
@ Iowa (Feb. 12)

Level 1 (2-4) -- Big-boy pants; every NCAA resume needs at least a couple big knockers. (currently 0-1)
vs. Louisville -- (LOST)
Ohio State (Jan. 6)
@ Michigan (Jan. 10)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 21)
@ Michigan State (Feb. 26)
Wisconsin (March 5)

Achieve this, go 22-9 (21-9 vs, DI opponents), and percentages are the Gophers will have at least five or six RPI top-50 wins. That would be more than enough to earn them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As a comparison, last season the Gophers only had two RPI top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Ohio State), along with two others (#54 Florida State, #56 Iowa) just outside the top 50.
 

SelectionSunday said:
The sun came up today. Let's not panic over one awful 2nd half. Let's get Georgia Friday night.

Achieve this, go 22-9 (21-9 vs, DI opponents), and percentages are the Gophers will have at least five or six RPI top-50 wins. That would be more than enough to earn them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As a comparison, last season the Gophers only had two RPI top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Ohio State), along with two others (#54 Florida State, #56 Iowa) just outside the top 50.
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Thanks for updating, SS. One of the main reasons to come to GH although not sure it does much for the anxiety level since I've got a feeling it's going to come down to the wire again.

Just so disappointed in the seniors last night: Elliot with 2 stupid plays that were big swings, Andre with 7 turnovers, DeAndre with quick fouls and not really doing anything as a point guard, and Mo despite his size just looked so slow and unaggressive. Hopefully, they all had a bad stretch together and not indicative of early "senioritis." Still, turnovers, foul trouble, foul shooting and getting out-rebounded as a team are troubling.

By the way, the sun may be shining, but out here it was 4 below with a damn breeze when I went out to clean the steps for company. Happy Thanksgiving, All.
 



Trying to look at last night as, we'll (hopefully) never have another game like that where all 4 seniors are bad on the same night. We got an early glimpse of what the season will be like if that happens on a regular basis. Some adversity for Young Richard, let's see how his guys respond tomorrow night. Will be very concerned if there's not a crisp and "spirited" effort vs. Georgia.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Trying to look at last night as, we'll (hopefully) never have another game like that where all 4 seniors are bad on the same night. We got an early glimpse of what the season will be like if that happens on a regular basis. Some adversity for Young Richard, let's see how his guys respond tomorrow night. Will be very concerned if there's not a crisp and "spirited" effort vs. Georgia.
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Agreed. Since the game is at 3 hopefully they turn it on before the evening though. :)
 

Updated through Georgia game (4-2): 18 wins to go

Absolutely had to have that one. Now let's shred Wake Forest and the 6 cupcakes that follow after that.

Updated Gophers' road to 22 wins through Game 6 (Georgia):

Level 5 (8-0) -- Cupcakes, i.e., basically the non-conference home schedule. (currently 2-0)
Franklin Pierce -- (WON)
UMBC -- (WON)
Western Carolina (Dec. 5)
North Dakota (Dec. 8)
Southern U (Dec. 10)
Seattle (Dec. 19)
Furman (Dec. 22)
NC-Wilmington (Dec. 27)

Level 4 (5-0) -- Decent foes but home losses would hurt resume. (currently 1-0)
Western Kentucky -- (WON)
Rutgers (Jan. 17)
Purdue (Feb. 7)
Northwestern (Feb. 18)
Penn State (March 8)

Level 3 (3-2) -- Should expect Gopher win but loss wouldn't be huge surprise.
@ Wake Forest (Dec. 2)
@ Purdue (Dec. 31)
@ Maryland (Jan. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 28)
@ Indiana (Feb. 15)

Level 2 (4-3) -- Opponents most similar to Gophers, realistic NCAA expectations. (currently 1-1)
@ Saint John's (LOST)
vs. Georgia (WON)
Iowa (Jan. 13)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 20)
Illinois (Jan. 24)
Nebraska (Jan. 31)
@ Iowa (Feb. 12)

Level 1 (2-4) -- Big-boy pants; every NCAA resume needs at least a couple big knockers. (currently 0-1)
vs. Louisville -- (LOST)
Ohio State (Jan. 6)
@ Michigan (Jan. 10)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 21)
@ Michigan State (Feb. 26)
Wisconsin (March 5)

Go 22-9 (21-9 vs, DI opponents) and percentages are the Gophers will have at least five or six RPI top-50 wins. That would be more than enough to earn them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As a comparison, last season the Gophers only had two RPI top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Ohio State), along with two others (#54 Florida State, #56 Iowa) just outside the top 50.
 

Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Should "Lock In" on 22 Wins Prior to Big 10...

From what we have seen so far this team appears to be a bubble team.

Not a whole lot of margin for error in what are considered Level 2 & 3 opponents in this thread.
 



Gopher program has a patent on the term "little margin for error." Really, really important they get at least a split on the opening Big Ten road trip.
 

question: do we get credit for neutral site win vs Georgia and will that score us any brownie points come selection day?
 

upnorthkid said:
question: do we get credit for neutral site win vs Georgia and will that score us any brownie points come selection day?
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Yes. It will if Georgia is any good. They finished 3rd in the SEC last year and could again. They failed to make the NCAA's despite finishing 3rd. That could happen again too.
 

Assuming we win out the remainder of the non-conference slate, we need to go 11-7 in the B1G in order to reach 22 wins prior to the conference tourny. We haven't had 11 conference wins since the vacated final four season. I don't think it is neccessarily impossible this year but we will need to show a lot of improvement for that to happen.
 

As long as we win out in non con. 9-9 puts us on the bubble. 10-8 or above regardless of what happens in the btt were talking seeding on selection sunday, not if we get in or not.
 

I think we could be underselling just how much the non-con schedule will drag down the Gophers. It's not going to be simply about how many conference wins they get, it'll be important that a couple/few of them are vs. the upper crust. Can't count on beating the bottom- and mid-tier teams to get you into the tournament when the non-con schedule is this awful. There's just no help there unless Georgia has a good season.
 

Future Gopher opponents Furman and Western Carolina lost to Liberty and Charleston Southern, respectively, tonight.
 

This is why I hate cowardly non-conference scheduling. We put ourselves in the spot where one crappy half of basketball saddled us with a rough loss and deprived us of a chance to play a good team, leaving us with only one really quality non-conference opponent on the schedule (who we understandably lost to).
 

bemidjigopher said:
As long as we win out in non con. 9-9 puts us on the bubble. 10-8 or above regardless of what happens in the btt were talking seeding on selection sunday, not if we get in or not.
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I'm stocking up on antacid myself....
 


Will update it tomorrow. Now it's all about avoiding bad losses until the conference season.
 

Updated through Wake game (5-2) -- 17 wins to go: Now it's time for soft pastries

Updated Gophers' road to 22 wins through Game 7 (Wake Forest).

And now, we interrupt our regular programming for 28 days of feasting on delicious soft pastries. ...

Level 5 (8-0) -- Cupcakes, i.e., basically the non-conference home schedule. (currently 2-0)
Franklin Pierce -- (WON)
UMBC -- (WON)
Western Carolina (Friday)
North Dakota (Monday)
Southern U (Dec. 10)
Seattle (Dec. 19)
Furman (Dec. 22)
NC-Wilmington (Dec. 27)

Level 4 (5-0) -- Decent foes but home losses would hurt resume. (currently 1-0)
Western Kentucky -- (WON)
Rutgers (Jan. 17)
Purdue (Feb. 7)
Northwestern (Feb. 18)
Penn State (March 8)

Level 3 (3-2) -- Should expect Gopher win but loss wouldn't be huge surprise. (currently 1-0)
@ Wake Forest -- (WON)
@ Purdue (Dec. 31)
@ Maryland (Jan. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 28)
@ Indiana (Feb. 15)

Level 2 (4-3) -- Opponents most similar to Gophers, realistic NCAA expectations. (currently 1-1)
@ Saint John's (LOST)
vs. Georgia (WON)
Iowa (Jan. 13)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 20)
Illinois (Jan. 24)
Nebraska (Jan. 31)
@ Iowa (Feb. 12)

Level 1 (2-4) -- Big-boy pants; every NCAA resume needs at least a couple big knockers. (currently 0-1)
vs. Louisville -- (LOST)
Ohio State (Jan. 6)
@ Michigan (Jan. 10)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 21)
@ Michigan State (Feb. 26)
Wisconsin (March 5)

Go 22-9 (21-9 vs, DI opponents) and percentages are the Gophers will have at least five or six RPI top-50 wins. That would be more than enough to earn them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As a comparison, last season the Gophers only had two RPI top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Ohio State), along with two others (#54 Florida State, #56 Iowa) just outside the top 50.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
This is why I hate cowardly non-conference scheduling. We put ourselves in the spot where one crappy half of basketball saddled us with a rough loss and deprived us of a chance to play a good team, leaving us with only one really quality non-conference opponent on the schedule (who we understandably lost to).
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We need Esposito reincarnate and doing the scheduling. Said before and said again, we don't need a bunch of top 20 opponents, but getting opponents from 75-150 instead of 250-325 would probably help a lot. I can't believe it's that difficut. I am wondering if Richard believes they played themselves out of the tournament with the crappy performance in Maui last year and so softened it up some this year. Hopefully, their act is together enough in January that the backs are not against the wall in March.
 

Can we move Rutgers into Level 5...? I don't know how they beat Clemson but I, unfortunately, watched their loss(at home) to St. Peters. They might be the equivalent of a good(not great) HS basketball team.
 

Tim1406 said:
Can we move Rutgers into Level 5...? I don't know how they beat Clemson but I, unfortunately, watched their loss(at home) to St. Peters. They might be the equivalent of a good(not great) HS basketball team.
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Certainly I understand where you're coming from, but I put this together before the season started and want to keep it "as is". I think it defeats the purpose to keep shuffling the opponents around every week. The only exception was, once it was determined the Gophers would play Georgia in NYC, I shifted that game from Level 1 (the preseason presumption was Gonzaga) to Level 2 (Georgia). ... Georgia certainly not a Level 1.

To piggyback on what you said, I'd add that at this point Purdue, Maryland, and Indiana are looking much more like Level 2s than Level 3s.
 

Updated through Southern U (8-2): 3 home cupcakes to dodge & 14 wins to go

Updated Gophers' road to 22 wins through Game 10 (Southern U).

Level 5 (8-0) -- Cupcakes, i.e., basically the non-conference home schedule. (currently 5-0)
Franklin Pierce -- (WON)
UMBC -- (WON)
Western Carolina -- (WON)
North Dakota -- (WON)
Southern U -- (WON)
Seattle (Dec. 19)
Furman (Dec. 22)
NC-Wilmington (Dec. 27)

Average Margin of Victory: +30.8

Level 4 (5-0) -- Decent foes but home losses would hurt resume. (currently 1-0)
Western Kentucky -- (WON)
Rutgers (Jan. 17)
Purdue (Feb. 7)
Northwestern (Feb. 18)
Penn State (March 8)

Average Margin of Victory: +22

Level 3 (3-2) -- Should expect Gopher win but loss wouldn't be huge surprise. (currently 1-0)
@ Wake Forest -- (WON)
@ Purdue (Dec. 31)
@ Maryland (Jan. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 28)
@ Indiana (Feb. 15)

Average Margin of Victory: +15

Level 2 (4-3) -- Opponents most similar to Gophers, realistic NCAA expectations. (currently 1-1)
@ Saint John's (LOST)
vs. Georgia (WON)
Iowa (Jan. 13)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 20)
Illinois (Jan. 24)
Nebraska (Jan. 31)
@ Iowa (Feb. 12)

Average Point Differential: +3

Level 1 (2-4) -- Big-boy pants; every NCAA resume needs at least a couple big knockers. (currently 0-1)
vs. Louisville -- (LOST)
Ohio State (Jan. 6)
@ Michigan (Jan. 10)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 21)
@ Michigan State (Feb. 26)
Wisconsin (March 5)

Average Margin of Defeat: -13

Go 22-9 (21-9 vs, DI opponents) and percentages are the Gophers will have at least five or six RPI top-50 wins. That would be more than enough to earn them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As a comparison, last season the Gophers only had two RPI top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Ohio State), along with two others (#54 Florida State, #56 Iowa) just outside the top 50.
 

Seems like it's survive and move forward at this time and don't pick up any bad losses. That St John's loss may not end up looking as bad as we thought, especially when comparing it to our B10 cohorts.
 

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