Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Should "Lock In" on 22 Wins Prior to Big 10 Tourny

Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Should "Lock In" on 22 Wins Prior to Big 10 Tourny

Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Should "Lock In" on 22 Wins Prior to Big 10 Tournament
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/437099?referrer_id=388419

LOCK CITY, U.S.A. -- Last year at roughly this time, we took a look at a potential path to the NCAA Tournament for the 2013-14 version of the Minnesota Gophers. Road to Selection Sunday estimated the Gophers would need 21 wins (excluding the Big Ten Tournament) to be considered a "lock" for the NCAA tourney bid heading into Indianapolis, site of the 2014 Big Ten tourney.

The Gophers fell short of that number, hitting 19 wins, one coming vs. a non-Division I opponent (Chaminade). The pure definition of a bubble team heading to Indy, the Gophers attempted to get to that 21 number via the back door, beating Penn State for win #20 before getting spanked and embarrassed by eventual Final Four participant Wisconsin. We'll never know if a win over the Badgers would have cemented the Gophers a spot in the NCAA (for the record I think it would have), but not surprisingly, and deservedly I may add, that left the Gophers on the outside looking in two days later on Selection Sunday.

I wasn't planning on writing a "path to NCAA Tournament lock status" for the upcoming season, but in the last month or so I've had three requests from GopherHole.com members to repeat the column for the 2014-15 Gophers. So what kind of columnist am I if I don't listen to my readers once in a while and give them what they want?

Please note, I'm not a believer in "magic numbers" as it pertains to teams earning lock status to the NCAA Tournament. All schedules are not created equal, hence, not all win & loss totals are created equal. However, if I were to suggest a number for the 2014-15 Gophers to attain in order to feel completely comfortable about landing in the 2015 Field of 68, that number would be 22. (I REPEAT, THIS 22 EXCLUDES THE BTT. THE GOAL IS TO BE "BUBBLE-FREE" HEADING INTO THE CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT)

Here's a breakdown of how the Gophers can get to the 22-9 regular-season record, allowing for a smooth and stress-free flight to Chicago for the 2015 BTT. The Gophers' 31 games are divided into 5 levels. Level 5 games are projected to be the least difficult, Level 1's the most difficult. We'll start with Level 5. In parentheses for each level is the estimated minimal record the Gophers need to achieve.


Level 5 (8-0) -- These are the cupcakes. Translated, save for one game it's the non-conference home schedule.

Franklin Pearce (Nov. 20): counting as 1 of the 22 even though Selection Committee won't count non-DI's.
UMBC (Nov. 22)
Western Carolina (Dec. 5)
North Dakota (Dec. 8)
Southern U (Dec. 10)
Seattle (Dec. 19)
Furman (Dec. 22)
NC-Wilmington (Dec. 27)


Level 4 (5-0) -- Should put up a fight, but these (home) losses would look bad on the resume.

Western Kentucky (Nov. 18)
Rutgers (Jan. 17)
Purdue (Feb. 7)
Northwestern (Feb. 18)
Penn State (March 8)


Level 3 (3-2) -- We should expect Gophers to win but a loss wouldn't be a huge surprise.

@ Wake Forest (Dec. 2)
@ Purdue (Dec. 31)
@ Maryland (Jan. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 28)
@ Indiana (Feb. 15)


Level 2 (3-3) -- Opponents most similar to the Gophers, realistic NCAA expectations.

vs. Saint John's (Nov. 26)
Iowa (Jan. 13)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 20)
Illinois (Jan. 24)
Nebraska (Jan. 31)
@ Iowa (Feb. 12)


Level 1 (3-4) -- Wear the big-boy pants. Every NCAA resume needs at least a couple big knockers.

vs. Louisville (Nov. 14)
vs. Gonzaga/Georgia (Nov. 28)
Ohio State (Jan. 6)
@ Michigan (Jan. 10)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 21)
@ Michigan State (Feb. 26)
Wisconsin (March 5)

Achieve this, go 22-9 (21-9 vs, DI opponents), and percentages are the Gophers will have at least five or six RPI top-50 wins. That would be more than enough to earn them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As a comparison, last season the Gophers only had two RPI top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Ohio State), along with two others (#54 Florida State, #56 Iowa) just outside the top 50.

I shall argue:

Level 5: 8-0
Level 4: 5-0
Level 3: 4-1
Level 2: 4-2
Level 1: 4-3.

Total: 25-6

All prior to the BTT.

All for the sake of arguing and confidence in Coach Pitino.

But, you know a hell of alot more than I do.

Thanks SS, you're the best!

Great stuff!

Bump.....can't say that I've spent much time breaking down the strength of our non-conference home opponents, but it looks like Tuesday is the "toughest" test?

golfing18now said:

Bump.....can't say that I've spent much time breaking down the strength of our non-conference home opponents, but it looks like Tuesday is the "toughest" test?

Click to expand...

Yes, and probably by a significant margin. That doesn't mean the Gophers won't kill the Hilltoppers, but WKU's history seems to indicate it could be competitive, at least for awhile. Solid mid-major program. WKU is 1-0, won its opener 77-70 over Austin Peay.

golfing18now said:

Bump.....can't say that I've spent much time breaking down the strength of our non-conference home opponents, but it looks like Tuesday is the "toughest" test?

Click to expand...

Yes, by far.

Gopher Warrior said:

Yes, by far.

Click to expand...

Start the season with a couple of real competitions, learn intensity, mop up the rest of OOC games, and get ready for the B1G season.

Updated through Louisville season opener

Level 5 (8-0) -- Cupcakes. Translated, save for 1 game it's the non-conference home schedule.
Franklin Pierce (Thursday): counting as 1 of the 22 even though Selection Committee won't count.
UMBC (Saturday)
Western Carolina (Dec. 5)
North Dakota (Dec. 8)
Southern U (Dec. 10)
Seattle (Dec. 19)
Furman (Dec. 22)
NC-Wilmington (Dec. 27)

Level 4 (5-0) -- Could put up a fight, but these (home) losses would look bad on the resume.
Western Kentucky (Tuesday)
Rutgers (Jan. 17)
Purdue (Feb. 7)
Northwestern (Feb. 18)
Penn State (March 8)

Level 3 (3-2) -- Should expect Gophers to win but a loss wouldn't be a huge surprise.
@ Wake Forest (Dec. 2)
@ Purdue (Dec. 31)
@ Maryland (Jan. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 28)
@ Indiana (Feb. 15)

Level 2 (3-3) -- Opponents most similar to the Gophers, realistic NCAA expectations.
vs. Saint John's (Nov. 26)
Iowa (Jan. 13)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 20)
Illinois (Jan. 24)
Nebraska (Jan. 31)
@ Iowa (Feb. 12)

Level 1 (3-4) -- Wear big-boy pants. Every NCAA resume needs at least a couple big knockers. (currently 0-1)
vs. Louisville -- 68-81 (LOST)
vs. Gonzaga/Georgia (Nov. 28)
Ohio State (Jan. 6)
@ Michigan (Jan. 10)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 21)
@ Michigan State (Feb. 26)
Wisconsin (March 5)

Achieve this, go 22-9 (21-9 vs, DI opponents), and percentages are the Gophers will have at least five or six RPI top-50 wins. That would be more than enough to earn them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As a comparison, last season the Gophers only had two RPI top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Ohio State), along with two others (#54 Florida State, #56 Iowa) just outside the top 50.

So it looks like Gonzaga and Ohio State are huge games for us. If we can win those we'll be in good shape.

Yep.

Saint John's game is really big, too. That'll determine whether we see Gonzaga because I think there's very little chance Georgia beats Zags.

It's going to be tough to go 3-3 against Level 1 the rest of the way. But there's no reason we can't go 4-2 against that second tier to make up for it.

Gonzaga

Gonzaga looks filthy good tonight. Hammering SMU. First impression is I see why some of the pundits are saying this has a chance to be Gonzaga's best team.

SelectionSunday said:

Gonzaga looks filthy good tonight. Hammering SMU. First impression is I see why some of the pundits are saying this has a chance to be Gonzaga's best team.

Click to expand...

I didn't see the game, but wow - 16 pt victory and only 8-20 from the line. Imagine if they were shooting the freebies well.

I don't think SMU is a top 25 team, but still a quality opponent. Impressive win.

Golden_Sloth said:

I didn't see the game, but wow - 16 pt victory and only 8-20 from the line. Imagine if they were shooting the freebies well.

I don't think SMU is a top 25 team, but still a quality opponent. Impressive win.

Click to expand...

Arvydas Sabonis' kid is going to be a beast.

Dr.Don said:

Start the season with a couple of real competitions, learn intensity, mop up the rest of OOC games, and get ready for the B1G season.

Click to expand...

Not exactly. We probably (hopefully) play Gonzaga in about 1 week at Madison Square Garden, and they look like a top-10 quality team. I watched them play SMU last night, and outside the first 8 minutes of the game or so, they toyed with them. Granted, it was at Gonzaga, but they looked really talented.

howeda7 said:

It's going to be tough to go 3-3 against Level 1 the rest of the way. But there's no reason we can't go 4-2 against that second tier to make up for it.

Click to expand...

From when I first read SS' breakdown, I thought that if 22 is our target, 4-1 against Level 3 and 2-5 against Level 1 would be a more realistic path. Thanks for putting this together SS, seeing this really helps me follow what needs to happen.

I think it's too early to concede Gophers can't go 3-4 vs. the Big Boys. I go into every Gopher home game thinking they can win (there's 2, OSU & Bucky). I'll assume they don't win in Madison, but that still leaves needing only 1 win from Georgia/Gonzaga, @ Michigan, or @ Michigan State. Michigan and Sparty are both re-tooling this year, it's not like they're going to have elite teams, no reason a seasoned Gopher team can't beat one of those two on the road.

One caveat on the preseason "22 wins". If the Gophers meet Georgia in the 3rd-place game, I'll move Georgia to Level 2 and tweak the Level 2 goal to 4-3 & change the Level 1 goal to 2-4. The goal still remains 22. However, if Gophers play Georgia in the title game, will keep UGa at Level 1.

GopherHole Staff said:

Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Should "Lock In" on 22 Wins Prior to Big 10 Tournament
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/437099?referrer_id=388419



Level 3 (3-2) -- We should expect Gophers to win but a loss wouldn't be a huge surprise.

@ Wake Forest (Dec. 2)
@ Purdue (Dec. 31)
@ Maryland (Jan. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 28)
@ Indiana (Feb. 15)

Click to expand...

Agreed. Better than a 3-2 record in these games would surprise me. Purdue looks like it could be better than expected.

As a Zags fan, I can say this year's team is going to be very good. Kevin Pangos doesn't get near the spotlight and accolades he deserves. Last year he played a majority of the season injured, he's going to have a big year this year.

A bold prediction of mine is SMU doesn't make the tourney. I'm not as high on this team as others.

Updated through Franklin Pierce game

Get this one done ahead of time. Gophers' road to 22 wins through Game 3 (Franklin Pierce).

Level 5 (8-0) -- Cupcakes. Translated, save for 1 game it's the non-conference home schedule. (currently 1-0)
Franklin Pierce -- (WON): counted among the 22 even though Selection Committee won't count it.
UMBC (Saturday)
Western Carolina (Dec. 5)
North Dakota (Dec. 8)
Southern U (Dec. 10)
Seattle (Dec. 19)
Furman (Dec. 22)
NC-Wilmington (Dec. 27)

Level 4 (5-0) -- Could put up a fight, but these (home) losses would look bad on the resume. (currently 1-0)
Western Kentucky -- (WON)
Rutgers (Jan. 17)
Purdue (Feb. 7)
Northwestern (Feb. 18)
Penn State (March 8)

Level 3 (3-2) -- Should expect Gophers to win but a loss wouldn't be a huge surprise.
@ Wake Forest (Dec. 2)
@ Purdue (Dec. 31)
@ Maryland (Jan. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 28)
@ Indiana (Feb. 15)

Level 2 (3-3) -- Opponents most similar to the Gophers, realistic NCAA expectations.
vs. Saint John's (Nov. 26)
Iowa (Jan. 13)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 20)
Illinois (Jan. 24)
Nebraska (Jan. 31)
@ Iowa (Feb. 12)

Level 1 (3-4) -- Wear big-boy pants. Every NCAA resume needs at least a couple big knockers. (currently 0-1)
vs. Louisville -- (LOST)
vs. Gonzaga/Georgia (Nov. 28)
Ohio State (Jan. 6)
@ Michigan (Jan. 10)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 21)
@ Michigan State (Feb. 26)
Wisconsin (March 5)

Achieve this, go 22-9 (21-9 vs, DI opponents), and percentages are the Gophers will have at least five or six RPI top-50 wins. That would be more than enough to earn them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As a comparison, last season the Gophers only had two RPI top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Ohio State), along with two others (#54 Florida State, #56 Iowa) just outside the top 50.

Am I missing something? We beat Western Kentucky yesterday and the Franklin Pierce game is still pending (thought I certainly hope we can book it in the W column early).

bleedsmaroonandgold said:

Am I missing something? We beat Western Kentucky yesterday and the Franklin Pierce game is still pending (thought I certainly hope we can book it in the W column early).

Click to expand...

Nope. End of the day brain fart on my part. Will fix shortly.

Updated through Saturday's UMBC game

Gophers' road to 22 wins through Game 4 (UMBC).

Level 5 (8-0) -- Cupcakes, i.e., basically the non-conference home schedule. (currently 2-0)
Franklin Pierce -- (WON)
UMBC -- (WON)
Western Carolina (Dec. 5)
North Dakota (Dec. 8)
Southern U (Dec. 10)
Seattle (Dec. 19)
Furman (Dec. 22)
NC-Wilmington (Dec. 27)

Level 4 (5-0) -- Decent foes but home losses would hurt resume. (currently 1-0)
Western Kentucky -- (WON)
Rutgers (Jan. 17)
Purdue (Feb. 7)
Northwestern (Feb. 18)
Penn State (March 8)

Level 3 (3-2) -- Should expect Gopher win but loss wouldn't be huge surprise.
@ Wake Forest (Dec. 2)
@ Purdue (Dec. 31)
@ Maryland (Jan. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 28)
@ Indiana (Feb. 15)

Level 2 (3-3) -- Opponents most similar to Gophers, realistic NCAA expectations.
vs. Saint John's (Nov. 26)
Iowa (Jan. 13)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 20)
Illinois (Jan. 24)
Nebraska (Jan. 31)
@ Iowa (Feb. 12)

Level 1 (3-4) -- Big-boy pants; every NCAA resume needs at least a couple big knockers. (currently 0-1)
vs. Louisville -- (LOST)
vs. Gonzaga/Georgia (Nov. 28)
Ohio State (Jan. 6)
@ Michigan (Jan. 10)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 21)
@ Michigan State (Feb. 26)
Wisconsin (March 5)

Achieve this, go 22-9 (21-9 vs, DI opponents), and percentages are the Gophers will have at least five or six RPI top-50 wins. That would be more than enough to earn them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As a comparison, last season the Gophers only had two RPI top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Ohio State), along with two others (#54 Florida State, #56 Iowa) just outside the top 50.

I've always wondered why is it that the top "50" is so relevant and not top 68 since 68 teams make the dance? Is it just because 50 is a more round number?

tmvander said:

I've always wondered why is it that the top "50" is so relevant and not top 68 since 68 teams make the dance? Is it just because 50 is a more round number?

Click to expand...

It seems like an interesting cutoff. What really bothered me last year is that comparing us to Iowa, we got hammered harder for not winning enough against the top 50 than Iowa did for not being in the top 50.

Why Top 50

tmvander said:

I've always wondered why is it that the top "50" is so relevant and not top 68 since 68 teams make the dance? Is it just because 50 is a more round number?

Click to expand...

I've heard they use Top 50 because the eventual Field of 68 contains roughly 10-15 teams that only got in because they won their conference tourney. Top 100 is also a criteria and that is justfied because that includes virtually all the NCAA and NIT teams that are At Large or won the regular season title.

bleedsmaroonandgold said:

It seems like an interesting cutoff. What really bothered me last year is that comparing us to Iowa, we got hammered harder for not winning enough against the top 50 than Iowa did for not being in the top 50.

Click to expand...

This is exactly why I was asking. I remember this situation last year and it seemed very strange that it was this huge discussion over a few RPI points from teams we beat.

tmvander said:

This is exactly why I was asking. I remember this situation last year and it seemed very strange that it was this huge discussion over a few RPI points from teams we beat.

Click to expand...

The biggest irony was that we split with Iowa, and they got in over us because while our wins came against weak not-top-50 teams like Iowa, Iowa's wins came against top-50 competition like Minnesota.