RTSS: Preseason Field of 68 Projection Says Gophers Should Be Nowhere Near the Bubble

Road to Selection Sunday: Preseason Field of 68 Projection Says Gophers Should Be Nowhere Near the Bubble
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/436571?referrer_id=388419

ROAD LESS TRAVELED, MINN. -- Surprise, surprise, surprise (insert your best Jim Nabors impersonation here)! The Minnesota Gophers men's basketball program, whose mere mention over the years seemingly has become synonymous with the sweat-inducing phrase "on the bubble", should not be anywhere near the NCAA Tournament cut line on March 15, 2015.

At least, so says GopherHole.com's Road to Selection Sunday Preseason NCAA Tournament Field of 68 Projection. On Monday we welcomed you to the 2014-15 college basketball season with a preseason top 25. Today we tell you who'll be trippin' the light fantastic on Selection Sunday. Though I say this with some trepidation because, well, I'm a Gopher fan, fear not ye Gopher fans, our only worry on Selection Sunday will be where our squad is seeded, not whether or not they'll make the NCAA field. RTSS sees the Gophers as one of seven from the Big Ten making the field. Save for perhaps Illinois, I don't think any of 'em will have to sweat it out, but that will not be the case for NCAA hopefuls Indiana, Maryland, and Nebraska.

Preseason Field of 68 Projection (10/15/14)

America East (1): Stony Brook

AAC (3): Memphis, SMU, UConn

ACC (7): Duke, Louisville, Miami-Florida, North Carolina, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia

Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast

Atlantic 10 (3): Dayton, UMass, VCU

Big East (4): Georgetown, Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier

Big Sky (1): Weber State

Big South (1): High Point

Big Ten (7): Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, MINNESOTA, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Big XII (6): Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia

Big West (1): UC-Irvine

CAA (1): Towson

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech

Horizon (1): Cleveland State

Ivy (1): Harvard

MAAC (1): Iona

MAC (1): Toledo

MEAC (1): Norfolk State

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State

Mountain West (3): Boise State, New Mexico, San Diego State

NEC (1): Bryant

OVC (1): Murray State

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Utah

Patriot (1): Holy Cross

SEC (4): Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky

Southern (1): Wofford

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin

SWAC (1): Texas Southern

Summit (1): Denver

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State

WCC (3): BYU, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's

WAC (1): New Mexico State

Last 4 In: Miami-Florida, New Mexico, Oregon, Seton Hall

First 4 Out: George Washington, Nebraska, Notre Dame, San Francisco

Others Considered (12): Auburn, Florida State, Illinois State, Indiana, Maryland, Rhode Island, Saint John's, Tulsa, UNLV, UTEP, William & Mary, Wyoming

Last Season's Projection

Last year the RTSS preseason projection accurately pegged 42 of the tournament qualifiers (61.8%), down one from the previous season. Of those 42, 16 were automatic qualifiers: Louisville (AAC); Virginia (ACC); Coastal Carolina (Big South); Michigan State (Big Ten); Iowa State (Big XII); Cal Poly (Big West); Harvard (Ivy); Manhattan (MAAC); Wichita State (Missouri Valley); New Mexico (Mountain West); UCLA (Pac 12); Florida (SEC); Texas Southern (SWAC); North Dakota State (Summit); Gonzaga (WCC); and New Mexico State (WAC). Of some note, of the Power 6 Conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac 12, SEC), the Pac 12 is the only one I pegged right on the money (6 teams projected in, those exact 6 made it).

Let's Take A Look At the Schedules of the Last 4 In & First 4 Out

These are the 8 teams projected to finish most squarely on the bubble. To follow are their games vs. opponents projected into the field of 68 + those among the "First 4 Out" & "Others Considered". Games are listed in the order they occur.

Last 4 In

Miami-Florida (12): @ Florida; ILLINOIS; VIRGINIA; @ Duke, @ Notre Dame; @ Syracuse; @ Florida State; LOUISVILLE; @ Louisville; FLORIDA STATE; NORTH CAROLINA; @ Pitt

New Mexico (10): NEW MEXICO STATE; @ New Mexico State; @ San Diego State; BOISE STATE; @ UNLV; @ Wyoming; SAN DIEGO STATE; UNLV; @ Boise State; WYOMING

Oregon (12): TOLEDO; vs. Michigan; vs. Villanova/VCU; vs. Illinois; UC-IRVINE; ARIZONA; UCLA; @ Arizona; @ UCLA; COLORADO; UTAH; @ Stanford

Seton Hall (11): GEORGE WASHINGTON; @ Wichita State; @ Georgia; SAINT JOHN'S; VILLANOVA; @ Xavier; XAVIER; GEORGETOWN; @ Villanova; @ Saint John's; @ Georgetown

First 4 Out

George Washington (7): @ Virginia; @ Seton Hall; @ VCU; @ Rhode Island; DAYTON; VCU; UMASS

Nebraska (16): @ Rhode Island; @ Florida State; INDIANA; @ Iowa; ILLINOIS; @ Wisconsin; MINNESOTA; MICHIGAN STATE; @ Michigan; @ Minnesota; WISCONSIN; @ Maryland; IOWA; @ Ohio State; @ Illinois; MARYLAND

Notre Dame (11): vs. UMass; MICHIGAN STATE; FLORIDA STATE; @ North Carolina; VIRGINIA; MIAMI-FLORIDA; DUKE; @ Pitt; @ Duke; SYRACUSE; @ Louisville

San Francisco (9): @ Colorado; CAL POLY; @ Cleveland State; @ Saint Mary's; BYU; @ Gonzaga; @ BYU; GONZAGA; SAINT MARY'S

And In the Event the Gophers End Up on the Bubble ('cause I know you're thinking that). ...

Minnesota (15): vs. Louisville; vs. Saint John's; vs. Georgia/Gonzaga; @ Maryland; OHIO STATE; @ Michigan; IOWA; @ Nebraska; ILLINOIS; NEBRASKA; @ Iowa; @ Indiana; @ Wisconsin; @ Michigan State; WISCONSIN. ... that means of the Gophers' 15 most critical games (on paper) only 5 will be played at Williams Arena. That's something to chew on.

Wow the Tim Miles worshipers in this town will not be happy if your projection of the 'Skers not making the dance.

I still like Miles a lot, that program will be a factor in the Big Ten under Miles, but I just don't like the odds of the Huskers repeating or surpassing what they did last season. The injury to Smith will hurt, but even before then I wasn't buying them for 2014-15.

I must admit, as a tortured Gopher lifer I read "nowhere near the bubble" as "we ain't dancing this year".

Oh! The RIGHT side of the bubble!

Sure would be nice if we didn't have to sweat it out again this year.

I'm curious what your primary factor(s) were for drawing this conclusion about the Gophers? Softer Big Ten schedule/teams in general? A feeling that we will improve pretty significantly this year? Our additions this year, including more experience for the returning players, will outweigh the subtractions from last year's team? A feeling that maybe we underachieved last year in year one of a program?

I don't know that I necessarily disagree with you, but I'm not ready to block the time off from work just yet. Can't wait to see it play out though!

golfing18now said:

Sure would be nice if we didn't have to sweat it out again this year.

I'm curious what your primary factor(s) were for drawing this conclusion about the Gophers? Softer Big Ten schedule/teams in general? A feeling that we will improve pretty significantly this year? Our additions this year, including more experience for the returning players, will outweigh the subtractions from last year's team? A feeling that maybe we underachieved last year in year one of a program?

I don't know that I necessarily disagree with you, but I'm not ready to block the time off from work just yet. Can't wait to see it play out though!

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Returning experience is at the top of the list. Hollins, Mathieu, EE, Mo, King all have a ton of Big Ten and/or DI experience. My only real concern is the 3 spot.

Little softer conference schedule should help, too. Beat Louisville or Gonzaga, then win 10 Big Ten games and they should be good to go. Always easier said than done, however.

Selection Sunday without high blood pressure or cool indifference because we're not in? I don't remember what that's like. I guess 2005 was a bit that way, but really it's been since at least 1999.

howeda7 said:

Selection Sunday without high blood pressure or cool indifference because we're not in? I don't remember what that's like. I guess 2005 was a bit that way, but really it's been since at least 1999.

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2005 was a stress free Sunday, but if they hadn't beat Indiana in the 4-5 game they most certainly would have been sweating bullets on Selection Sunday.

I thought we were pretty comfortably in in 2013 as well. I remember a few posters saying that Iowa could get in ahead of us that year because they had an additional conference win, even though as far as I know the committee doesn't weight conference wins more heavily than non-conference wins, and I think out RPI was significantly higher than Iowa's. And the guy who kept spouting some unresearched statistic like "no team has ever made the tournament when going 5-11 in their last 16 games!" or something like that as to why we wouldn't get in.

IIRC the more level-headed posters seemed confident we'd get in, which of course we did.

I still don't understand what you see in New Mexico.

Down with Goldy said:

I still don't understand what you see in New Mexico.

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I like the Lobos because Walter White studied chemistry @ UNM.

I hope you are right Selection Sunday! As a fan, it will be so much more enjoyable if every game doesn't seem like a do or die. It's just not any fun going in to game after game feeling like "they have to win THIS game" and then the feeling is more like relief when they do in fact win that game and excruciating pain when they lose that game (ex Illinois/Northwestern last year). It'd be nice to be thinking things like "damn, that loss at Nebraska is really going to hurt our chance at a 5 seed" instead of 'damn, that loss at Nebraska is going to have me watching ESPNU at 7:00 on Selection Sunday".

SelectionSunday said:

I like the Lobos because Walter White studied chemistry @ UNM.

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+1

How are St. John's and Wake going to be? I feel like a lot of people are overlooking the St. John's game in order to get to Gonzaga and the Wake game is on the road.

SS' s prognostications of the future are pretty damned accurate. I enjoy following his RTSS updates, so thank you Selection Sunday.

SelectionSunday said:

I like the Lobos because Walter White studied chemistry @ UNM.

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Now I get it.