Sagarin Predictions: Week 5

The numbers are starting to balance out, and the good news is, we outperformed last weekend (although a number of B1G teams did as well). Week 4 can be found here.

The numbers will certainly be put to the test this weekend in Ann Arbor; if it were on a neutral field, the Golden Mean suggests essentially a dead heat (0.55 difference in favor of the Wolverines). But for a team we've lost to by an average of 38-9 over the past 6 years, it's a bit hard to believe. Still, things might be closer than the experts think.

As always, these are for entertainment purposes only.

I take the GOLDEN_MEAN score, found here, and add the home-field advantage to the home team to come up with predicted spreads/favorites.

@ Michigan +4
vs Northwestern -1.5
vs Purdue -9
@ Illinois -3.5
vs Iowa -3
vs Ohio State +12.5
@ Nebraska +12
@ Wisconsin +24.5

Predicted Record 7-5 (4-4)

Likely wins (>6 point difference in favor of Minnesota): vs Purdue
Likely toss-ups (within 6 points): @ Michigan, vs Northwestern, @ Illinois, vs Iowa
Likely losses (>6 point difference in favor of opponent): vs Ohio State, @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin

Thanks as always Gopher07.

These are starting to look closer to what the onfield results should produce. Do the preseason predictions ever completely evaporate from the formula?

bleedsmaroonandgold said:

Thanks as always Gopher07.

These are starting to look closer to what the onfield results should produce. Do the preseason predictions ever completely evaporate from the formula?

Click to expand...

+1!

Thanks Gopher07 for taking the time to put this together. Much appreciated!

bleedsmaroonandgold said:

Thanks as always Gopher07.

These are starting to look closer to what the onfield results should produce. Do the preseason predictions ever completely evaporate from the formula?

Click to expand...

They do, once enough games are played. I believe they are totally removed after the fourth week but it might be after week 5. Regardless, the impact of the preseason predictions in this week's numbers is small (if any).

I think preseason predictions get removed from each teams score after their fourth game. So TCU's numbers will still have a component while ours do not. Without referencing the schedule I believe that OSU and Northwestern still have numbers partially derived from preseason.

Interesting that it seems like on a neutral field, we would have the same shot at beating Northwestern as beating Michigan. I guess I got the feeling that Northwestern was pretty terrible this year, and that only Purdue and maybe Illinois were keeping them from the bottom of the conference. I would guess a fair amount of people on this board would simultaneously tell you that we should beat Northwestern, but that we'll be lucky to keep it within 2 or 3 touchdowns against Michigan. Perhaps just based on past results of Michigan beating us pretty badly while something like 6 of our last 7 games against Northwestern have been decided by one possession.