Prepare for an agonizing non-conference

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BarnBoy

BarnBoy

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We sound like we're improving in every aspect. Bigger, faster, stronger. But don't expect that to translate to "putting teams away early" in the non-conference.

My theory: We're in for some agonizing non-conference first halves.

1. The Wins
Look at our 9 wins in non-conference under Kill. (We had three losses in Year One to USC, NMSU, and NDSU).

Opponent: First Half Lead / 3rd Quarter Lead / 4th Quarter Lead
'11 Miami Oh: 3 / 0 / 6
'12 UNLV: 4 / -3 / 0 (OT Win)
'12 New Hampshire: 23 / 30 / 37
'12 W Michigan: 11 / 11 / 5
'12 Syracuse: 4 / 11 / 7
'13 UNLV: 3 / 14 / 28
'13 New Mexico St: 20 / 16 / 23
'13 W Illinois: 1 / 3 / 17
'13 San Jose State: 3 / 12 / 19

New Hampshire and New Mexico State were relatively easy wins from start to finish. But look at the other 7 games. Halftime leads of only 3, 4, 11, 4, 3, 1 and 3 with eventual wins of 6, 0T, 5, 7, 28, 17 and 19.

2. The Losses
What's also interesting is that we outscored the competition (in the second half) in all three non-conference losses.

Opponent: First Half Lead / 3rd Quarter Lead / 4th Quarter Lead
'11 USC: -16 / -12 / -2
'11 NMSU -7 / -14 / -7
'11 NDSU -14 / -14 / -13

Net, net:
Prepare for four weeks of GopherHole experts telling you we are "limiting the playbook" or "we aren't very good" with a double helping of "we'll get killed in the B1G if we do this". I predict GopherHole will be in full melt-down mode for the first half of three or maybe all of four of our non-conference games.

Kill will not win the game in the first half, but he might lose it. Our game plan seems to be predicated on time of possession, making fewer mistakes, and being better conditioned. That doesn't normally translate to jumping out to huge leads. We will cut you 100 times and bleed you to death.
 

This is a great analysis. Thanks for putting this together. Being a gopher fan has taught me that we never have a win locked down until the clock hits 0, and that makes the game fun to watch (when we win). Although it would be fun for a while to start blowing teams out early and keeping the lead, I prefer the close games, as long as they are wins.
 

Nearly every second of every game in every season is agonizing.

Do you even watch?
 


Garbage analysis. Last years results do not translate to this years team. More of the playbook is installed than ever. This is the year execution will be more decisive than ever before. If this truly is a better team than previous years, the team will pull away early and put these cupcakes away in good order. If not, we are no better than the bottom feeder team we have been in years past. End of plotline.
 


AuEGO4 said:
This is a great analysis. Thanks for putting this together. Being a gopher fan has taught me that we never have a win locked down until the clock hits 0, and that makes the game fun to watch (when we win). Although it would be fun for a while to start blowing teams out early and keeping the lead, I prefer the close games, as long as they are wins.
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Agreed. They are fun games to watch. This is more to prepare us for the "we got lucky and pulled that one out in the 2nd half" crowd, when I actually think that's part of our system/design.
 

Dean S said:
Garbage analysis. Last years results do not translate to this years team. More of the playbook is installed than ever. This is the year execution will be more decisive than ever before. If this truly is a better team than previous years, the team will pull away early and put these cupcakes away in good order. If not, we are no better than the bottom feeder team we have been in years past. End of plotline.
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You see the world very black and white, don't you? No room for analysis. Ending sentences with phrases like "end of plotline" and "no room for discussion". National championship or nothing, am I right?
 

I hope we do something different in out of conference to what we did the last two years. If I remember right, both years we came out of non-conference 4-0, and then looked totally unprepared in our first conference games. I want us to be ready for the B1G season. I don't care how much we win by, I just want us to be ready to compete with the B1G.
 

Agree to an extent, however if we are truly better then last year ( I believe we will be ) we should be pulling away earlier this year than last. According to Kill this is the first year we have some big play makers on the team; guys that can turn a first down into a touchdown like Edwards.

I think your right that we are a 'wear you down' type team, but I would be surprised if at the very least we don't start to put teams away a little earlier, as I believe we should.
 



Dean S said:
Garbage analysis. Last years results do not translate to this years team. More of the playbook is installed than ever. This is the year execution will be more decisive than ever before. If this truly is a better team than previous years, the team will pull away early and put these cupcakes away in good order. If not, we are no better than the bottom feeder team we have been in years past. End of plotline.
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Dean...really?

Garbage Analysis - At least BarnBoy is giving us some analysis. I went back to your "posts" and found nothing. You lack the credibility & experience to judge good analysis vs. garbage analysis

Last years results do not translate to this years team - So you're trying to say that 70%+ of the same players last year suddenly underwent such a radical transformation over the last 6 months that you can't judge the heart of this team? Nope, you are wrong again.

This is the year execution will be more decisive than ever before. - Tell us....when has execution not mattered? Sheesh...

If this truly is a better team than previous years, the team will pull away early and put these cupcakes away in good order. If not, we are no better than the bottom feeder team we have been in years past. - this is funny...BarnBoy was just talking about the whining that was going to happen; and you walked right into it.

I thought the analysis was well thought out and shows Kills strategy. If you have ever coached before, you'll know that scouting is good, but the real scouting happens during the 1st quarter or two. You pick away at weaknesses, good match-ups, and schemes
 

BarnBoy said:
You see the world very black and white, don't you? No room for analysis. Ending sentences with phrases like "end of plotline" and "no room for discussion". National championship or nothing, am I right?
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Feel better, plebian.
 

Rescooter said:
Dean...really?

Garbage Analysis - At least BarnBoy is giving us some analysis. I went back to your "posts" and found nothing. You lack the credibility & experience to judge good analysis vs. garbage analysis

Last years results do not translate to this years team - So you're trying to say that 70%+ of the same players last year suddenly underwent such a radical transformation over the last 6 months that you can't judge the heart of this team? Nope, you are wrong again.

This is the year execution will be more decisive than ever before. - Tell us....when has execution not mattered? Sheesh...

If this truly is a better team than previous years, the team will pull away early and put these cupcakes away in good order. If not, we are no better than the bottom feeder team we have been in years past. - this is funny...BarnBoy was just talking about the whining that was going to happen; and you walked right into it.

I thought the analysis was well thought out and shows Kills strategy. If you have ever coached before, you'll know that scouting is good, but the real scouting happens during the 1st quarter or two. You pick away at weaknesses, good match-ups, and schemes
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Funny, I thought we were talking football. Beany Babies showing us all the point differential was soooooo enlightening.

I am not a coach.

I am not the TOPIC OF DISCUSSION.

But, here is what I think progress looks like. If we do see progress like Coach Kill is suggesting on both sides of the football, the clear difference will be in how we dominate the non conference schedule and be prepared to shake up the West. I am not going to spreadsheet this or X and O this idea. It will either happen or it won't.

Rescooter, you are right I am complaining. I don't care if Barnboy predicted it or not. I want the game to start now to see what actually happens.

I am exhibiting the same football withdrawal symptoms as every other year. So, you didn't look back at my posts far enough! If you want analysis, here it is. I get cranky right about now in the year and I will punk some GH contributor for not being the game of football. I am like a junky looking for a fix.

Now, would somebody post something on football that is red, bloody meat!
 

It's interesting analysis.
More teams struggle in the non conference slate than is perceived.
The idea that "good" teams blow non-conference "cupcakes" out by 30+ is simply not the truth. MSU played a 2-10 south florida team and won 21-6, Michigan hung on to beat Akron and Uconn by only a few points each. There are plenty of other examples.

Anytime you're breaking in new parts of your team there's a chance for miscues and mistakes. Teams that have stability and returning starters are going be better prepared to jump on those mistakes.
Established strengths of teams usually end up being the difference, in our case our running game and secondary should temper any defensive front 7 issues we may face against some of these early games.

I keep thinking back to how bad MSU's offense struggled early last year and can't help but see similarities to our situation this year albeit with a somewhat weaker but capably good defense.
 



Remember when we could've beaten USC on the road with a frosh under center?

That wasn't weird at all.
 

I worry about all games until we win. Other coaches are smart too and early in the season particularly making a team do things they are not good at executing is a very effective defensive strategy. Until we can demonstrate an ability to throw consistently, we are going to face stacked defenses and have to grind out yards and wns. With a few early season miscues, it turns out to be a close game, even if the teams eventually wind up with widely different performance levels late in the season.
 

Neither analysis is "correct". The truth is somwhere in between. You can't even include the 2011 NC results anymore. That was not at all a real Jerry Kill team.

Last year's team was certainly more resilient than 2012. In fact, heads above. However, they both struggled in the first halves.

The 2013 team learned how to put away an NC foe. This year's team must show how to beat an opponent into submission. I think that's what you will see.

Will they struggle or make mistakes at times? Yes. Will it be as fatalistic as in years past? I choose to say "no".
 

Dean S said:
Garbage analysis. Last years results do not translate to this years team. More of the playbook is installed than ever. This is the year execution will be more decisive than ever before. If this truly is a better team than previous years, the team will pull away early and put these cupcakes away in good order. If not, we are no better than the bottom feeder team we have been in years past. End of plotline.
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I don't get it. You're saying they drew up more plays this year than in years past? Or they forgot to practice all the plays until this year? Or they ran out of time? Or they lost interest?

How do you know this?

I thought the post by BarnBoy was really interesting and helpful.
 

It's simply that as a red shirt sophomore Leidner has been in the system longer than any previous quarterback we've had. With inexperienced QBs you often shorten the playbook.
 

It's not a matter of shortening the playbook. Not quite that simplistic. All season long, you leave out plays that are not working in practice. Sometimes that is a personnel problem. Sometimes its a keep under wraps issue.

Either way, leas plays are called in the NC. By every team. The difference in 2014 will be the O line and the number of weapons at Limgrover's disposal. I'm bullish on this NC.
 

This site is becoming almost unreadable. I hope it has to do with the fact that it's July. I want this site to be more analysis about games, players, Xs and Os. Everything becomes a pissing match. Everything becomes either/or. Welcome to the bowels of the Internet.

The purpose of my original post was to point out something that I saw over the last two years. Slow starts. It's how Kill coaches. It's the system that DOES translate from year-to-year. His philosophy. We will be much better executing this year and I hope to HELL we start crushing teams. Maybe I wasn't clear in that part. My post was not a dig at Kill and Co.

This was merely something to chew on because it's July. Then you get posters leading off their replies with phrases like "garbage analysis". Wow.

Over the last several months, I have been tempted to stop visiting this site and posting simply because of about 10-15 people that derail every conversation and make everything personal. And that's not meant to be a threat. Nobody cares if I leave. I know that. It's just sad because i think there is a silent majority who is more passionate and respectful about the Gophers and their fellow fans and have interest in debating topics like this instead of "good weight vs. bad weight" or "the star system" or whatever other rabbit holes we always go down.

There, I derailed my own thread.
 


BarnBoy said:
This site is becoming almost unreadable. I hope it has to do with the fact that it's July. I want this site to be more analysis about games, players, Xs and Os. Everything becomes a pissing match. Everything becomes either/or. Welcome to the bowels of the Internet.

The purpose of my original post was to point out something that I saw over the last two years. Slow starts. It's how Kill coaches. It's the system that DOES translate from year-to-year. His philosophy. We will be much better executing this year and I hope to HELL we start crushing teams. Maybe I wasn't clear in that part. My post was not a dig at Kill and Co.

This was merely something to chew on because it's July. Then you get posters leading off their replies with phrases like "garbage analysis". Wow.

Over the last several months, I have been tempted to stop visiting this site and posting simply because of about 10-15 people that derail every conversation and make everything personal. And that's not meant to be a threat. Nobody cares if I leave. I know that. It's just sad because i think there is a silent majority who is more passionate and respectful about the Gophers and their fellow fans and have interest in debating topics like this instead of "good weight vs. bad weight" or "the star system" or whatever other rabbit holes we always go down.

There, I derailed my own thread.
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Garbage post.
 

eh

we have discussed this topic before about JKs coaching style. We have done it every year following the first year. They call plays like they coach the kids. limit mistakes. limit mistakes. limit mistakes.

they coach em to score on every play. see Indiana last year.
 

BarnBoy said:
This site is becoming almost unreadable. I hope it has to do with the fact that it's July. I want this site to be more analysis about games, players, Xs and Os. Everything becomes a pissing match. Everything becomes either/or. Welcome to the bowels of the Internet.

The purpose of my original post was to point out something that I saw over the last two years. Slow starts. It's how Kill coaches. It's the system that DOES translate from year-to-year. His philosophy. We will be much better executing this year and I hope to HELL we start crushing teams. Maybe I wasn't clear in that part. My post was not a dig at Kill and Co.

This was merely something to chew on because it's July. Then you get posters leading off their replies with phrases like "garbage analysis". Wow.

Over the last several months, I have been tempted to stop visiting this site and posting simply because of about 10-15 people that derail every conversation and make everything personal. And that's not meant to be a threat. Nobody cares if I leave. I know that. It's just sad because i think there is a silent majority who is more passionate and respectful about the Gophers and their fellow fans and have interest in debating topics like this instead of "good weight vs. bad weight" or "the star system" or whatever other rabbit holes we always go down.

There, I derailed my own thread.
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Statistics have never been this site's forte, more of a pitchfork and angry mob sort of place. But that's why it's so amusing.
 


The past under Kill is a lesson. A lesson on how to build successful program from nothing. The changes have been incremental and progressive. We will be better again this year and the pattern will keep changing. Still OC is dangerous. Anything can happen.

The 70% of the same guys are not the same guys. College players change rapidly as they mature in a stable program. The lines are the primary determiner of success in B1G football. They take time to build. They require depth. For the first time in recent history, we have both.

There another garbage post.
 

diehard said:
The past under Kill is a lesson. A lesson on how to build successful program from nothing. The changes have been incremental and progressive. We will be better again this year and the pattern will keep changing. Still OC is dangerous. Anything can happen.

The 70% of the same guys are not the same guys. College players change rapidly as they mature in a stable program. The lines are the primary determiner of success in B1G football. They take time to build. They require depth. For the first time in recent history, we have both.

There another garbage post.
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Welcome to the ignore list
 

Pissing matches aside - we absolutely dominated 3 of our 4 non-conference games last year...
 

BarnBoy said:
This site is becoming almost unreadable. I hope it has to do with the fact that it's July. I want this site to be more analysis about games, players, Xs and Os. Everything becomes a pissing match. Everything becomes either/or. Welcome to the bowels of the Internet.

The purpose of my original post was to point out something that I saw over the last two years. Slow starts. It's how Kill coaches. It's the system that DOES translate from year-to-year. His philosophy. We will be much better executing this year and I hope to HELL we start crushing teams. Maybe I wasn't clear in that part. My post was not a dig at Kill and Co.

This was merely something to chew on because it's July. Then you get posters leading off their replies with phrases like "garbage analysis". Wow.

Over the last several months, I have been tempted to stop visiting this site and posting simply because of about 10-15 people that derail every conversation and make everything personal. And that's not meant to be a threat. Nobody cares if I leave. I know that. It's just sad because i think there is a silent majority who is more passionate and respectful about the Gophers and their fellow fans and have interest in debating topics like this instead of "good weight vs. bad weight" or "the star system" or whatever other rabbit holes we always go down.

There, I derailed my own thread.
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Well stated. Even if you are including me in this group. Well, I don't think you are or would be, but just in case I thought I would throw that disclaimer in there. Ha! ;)

P.S. Feel the same as you and have already moved on to some extent from GH and started reading really good, really well though out stuff on other Gopher sites like Gophers 24/7, Minnesota Rivals, Minnesota Scout, The Daily Gopher, Gold and Gopher, etc. There are plenty of good options out there besides Gopherhole to read about, get info on, and discuss/post about Gopher football, basketball and hockey.

And the moderation of these other Gopher sites if for the most part fair handed and much more legit/professional. i.e. They are not willing to put up with trollish posters/trollish threads all of the time simply just to generate additional page views like you often see here at GH. And you don't see as much arbitrary, petty moderation (i.e things like random deletion of posts or threads for no reason other than certain holier-than-thou GH mods don't like certain posters. :cool02:
 


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