Road to Selection Sunday: With Boredom Setting In, A Sneak Peek to College Hoops

Road to Selection Sunday: With Boredom Setting In, A Sneak Peek to College Hoops
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/404627?referrer_id=331171

ARE WE THERE YET?, MINN. -- We've reached that time of the sports calendar when there's not a whole lot interesting going on. The World Cup is over (caught my interest until the U.S. was eliminated), Wimbledon's done, the Lynx are playing a winter sport in the middle of summer, and the Twins once again stink & Joe Mauer once again is hurt. That means some serious "sportsing" boredom is going on until college football/NFL bridge the gap for us until the college hoops season starts in November.

To start getting our minds geared toward the March to the Madness, to follow is our first installment of RTSS' "Field of 68" projection, 2014-15 style. It should be another strong season for the Big Ten -- 6 NCAA bids should be the minimum expectation -- but unlike last season it appears there's only one legitimate national championship contender, (gulp) Wisconsin, in the now 14-team conference (hello Maryland & Rutgers). The Big Ten's best chance to end its 14-year championship drought rests squarely on the Badgers' shoulders. There, I said it, now please let me go wash my mouth out with soap.

Here's a sneak preview to March. Teams' final 2013-14 RPI are noted in parentheses. RTSS' next projection will be just prior to the start of the season.

SUMMERTIME FIELD OF 68

America East (1): Stony Brook (165)

American (3): Connecticut (22), Memphis (37), SMU (53)

ACC (7): Virginia (8), Duke (9), Syracuse (16), Louisville (19), North Carolina (25), Pitt (39), Miami-Florida (110)

Atlantic Sun (1): SC-Upstate (163)

Atlantic 10 (3): VCU (13), George Washington (29), Dayton (43)

Big East (3): Villanova (5), Xavier (47), Seton Hall (128)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (149)

Big South (1): High Point (172)

Big Ten (7): Wisconsin (6), Michigan (11), Michigan State (18), Ohio State (24), MINNESOTA (50), Iowa (56), Illinois (70)

Big XII (7): Kansas (3), Iowa State (7), Oklahoma (26), Baylor (30), Texas (36), Kansas State (51), West Virginia (88)

Big West (1): UCSB (107)

Colonial (2): Towson (95), William & Mary (119)

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech (62)

Horizon (1): Cleveland State (91)

Ivy (1): Harvard (46)

MAAC (1): Iona (59)

MAC (1): Toledo (38)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (227)

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State (4)

Mountain West (4): New Mexico (12), San Diego State (15), Boise State (82), UNLV (108)

Northeast (1): Bryant (177)

Ohio Valley (1): Murray State (142)

Pac 12 (5): Arizona (2), UCLA (14), Colorado (34), Stanford (41), Utah (80)

Patriot (1): Holy Cross (127)

SEC (4): Florida (1), Kentucky (17), Arkansas (77), Auburn (169)

Southern (1): Wofford (153)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (52)

SWAC (1): Southern U (171)

Summit (1): Denver (139)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State (76)

West Coast (2): Gonzaga (20), BYU (31)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (72)

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Last 4 In: Towson (95), UNLV (108), Seton Hall (128), Auburn (169)

First 4 Out: Nebraska (48), Saint Mary's (61), Saint John's (67), Georgia (74)

Others Considered (12): Cincinnati (21), Massachusetts (23), Oregon (28), Southern Miss (33), Florida State (54), San Francisco (68), Georgetown (69), Richmond (75), Maryland (78), Northern Iowa (109), Vanderbilt (120), Notre Dame (136)

Notes on the Bracket

(1) The Gophers sit somewhere among my final 5-12 at-large selections. As long as they stay free of any unexpected key injuries/personnel losses, the expectation for Richard Pitino's second Gopher squad should be a NCAA Tournament bid, with a Round of 32 win thrown in for good measure. That would surpass what Tubby accomplished in his second season (NCAA bid) in Stadium Village.

(2) Something tells me Marcus Paige is going to lead North Carolina to a really special season, despite all of UNC's off-court woes. Paige gets my early vote for National Player of the Year.

(3) The A-10 will have its NCAA bids from last season cut in half, from 6 to 3.

(4) JP Macura will help Xavier remain relevant in the Big East.

(5) Still love Nebraska and Tim Miles' future, but I'm not seeing a repeat of last season. ... the Huskers have to settle for the NIT.

(6) Huggy Bear bounces back with a NCAA bid for his West Virginia squad thanks in large part to dynamic guard Juwan Staten.

(7) After losing a heart-breaker to Delaware in the CAA title game last season, William & Mary finally will play in its first NCAA Tournament. That means Towson (also in the CAA) will have to sweat out Selection Sunday. The Tigers eventually will be the Selection Committee's most controversial at-large selection.

(8) After following 2013's surprising NCAA bid with a disappointing 2013-14 season, Boise State will return to the dance, this time with room to spare.

(9) A sleeper from each of the 6 major conferences (for now am still considering the Big East a major conference)? Let's go with Miami-Florida (ACC), Seton Hall (Big East), Illinois (Big Ten), Kansas State (Big XII), Utah (Pac 12), and Auburn (SEC).

(10) One-bid league most likely to be represented in the Sweet 16? It's gotta' be the Ivy League thanks to Tommy Amaker's Harvard squad.

(11) Early Final 4 (subject to change this fall)? Arizona, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Villanova.

My apologies, in bullet point (1) I meant to say "a Round of 64 win thrown in for good measure" instead of "Round of 32 win".

Thanks SS, nice to look ahead, can't wait for the season to start.

I think there's a strong likelihood that another B1G team will emerge as a contender in addition to Wisconsin. Always seems to happen recently, probably because this set of coaches might be the best in the conference in my lifetime.

SelectionSunday said:

My apologies, in bullet point (1) I meant to say "a Round of 64 win thrown in for good measure" instead of "Round of 32 win".

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You just broke my heart.

mplarson7 said:

You just broke my heart.

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Certainly would welcome a Sweet 16 appearance, but not my expectation of this team. Not a ton of (proven) depth on this team. Get there, win a game, the rest is gravy.

I think this is a year where we could surpirse. Imagine Hollins getting insanely hot at the right time this year? If he goes Memphis, who is stopping us? Hollins goes out with a bang by getting us to the sweet 16 AND he ends the NBA draft drought. Local big time recruits take notice of Pitino's ability to coach up players, Amir Coffee and Gary Trent commit shortly there after.

POLLYANNA!!!

Under this scenario, would Matt Painter and/or Tom Crean be back for the following year?

golfing18now said:

Under this scenario, would Matt Painter and/or Tom Crean be back for the following year?

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You'd have to think both are on short leashes. So I'd say No.

I can see Paige having a good year - POY seems like a stretch, but you never know. However, will UNC be all that good this year? It just seems like Roy has lost control in all aspects.

BballJones said:

You'd have to think both are on short leashes. So I'd say No.

I can see Paige having a good year - POY seems like a stretch, but you never know. However, will UNC be all that good this year? It just seems like Roy has lost control in all aspects.

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Paige's chance for POY definitely hinges on what kind of season the Tar Heels have. They can't just have a so-so season (by UNC standards). I'm banking on UNC having the kind of season we're accustomed to seeing them having (deep March run).

New Mexico lost 3 all conf players in: Baristow, K. Williams, and Alex Kirk-who declared and went undrafted. Leading returning scorer is Neal at 7 pts per game. I see them falling pretty far and not making the tourney. Colorado St. could be a sleeper in the MTN West with everyone returning.
I think the big ten sleeper is Maryland. On the national scene watch Toledo. Baylor lost a ton. UNLV is very volatile they could finish first or last considering who will even be suiting up.

What am I missing with Auburn? And I agree on New Mexico, could be a rough year.

Auburn has Antoine Mason transfer from Niagara the nation's leading returning scorer at 25.6 pts per game eligible to play for them this year. But ya they were one of the SEC's worst teams and lost their leading scorer and 3 of the top 5 guys to graduation. They are a middle of the pack SEC team even with Mason, unless I am missing something.The recruits don't look special either.

Am going out on a limb with Auburn, certainly, but I have a lot of faith in Bruce Pearl as a basketball coach. One thing Auburn has going for it is there's a lot of room for upward mobility in the SEC. Currently in a down cycle. Other than UK and Florida, there's just not much there.