Reusse: To local football followers: 'Competitive' is years away; 2015 we'll be 4-4

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BleedGopher

BleedGopher

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Reusse writes about which team (Gophers or Vikings) will be competitive first. He writes:

"The Gophers have it tougher. The Big Ten schedule will remain at eight games over the next five years. The Gophers' annual opponents are Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Iowa, Northwestern and designated rival Wisconsin.

Take an optimistic look at potential victories and you get this: One combined victory vs. Michigan and Nebraska, three combined vs. Wisconsin and Michigan State, five combined vs. Iowa and Northwestern. That's 9-21 over five years -- a deep hole on the way to .500 in the Big Ten.

What the Gophers will have going for them is the same thing as the Vikings: a talented new quarterback. Philip Nelson, the 6-3, 216-pound star at Mankato West, looks like the best Minnesota prep quarterback since Joe Mauer.

Jerry Kill could choose to have Nelson redshirt in 2012, as MarQueis Gray plays his senior season. If so, mark down 2015 -- Nelson's junior season -- when the Gophers reach 4-4 in the Big Ten and join the ranks of the competitive."

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikings/134008188.html

Go Gophers!!
 

wow, since Reusse knows what our exact record will be in 2015, we might as well not even play the games and just ask him what the score would have been.
 

Nothing to get bent out of shape over here. It's his opinion and not really a surprising one.
 

I'll agree that you can turn a pro team around faster than an NFL team, because you have the draft and you can cut players, you can trade players, you can sign free agents. But to claim we won't see 4-4 until 2015? When a dog craps on my lawn, that's not surprising, and one of Reusse's columns isn't surprising either.
 

Actually, for Reusse, this is a fairly optimistic column. Let's be realistic - the Gophs have been .500 or better in Big 10 play 8 times in the last 30 seasons. So, when Pat says the Gophs will reach that mark in 2015, he's saying that the Gophs will have one of their best seasons in recent memory. (at least since the Mason era). For Pat, that's a compliment. I would have expected him to be much harsher in his assessment. a 4-4 Big 10 record could mean a 7-5 or 8-4 overall mark, depending on the non-conf schedule, and a decent bowl game. In the immortal words from "Robocop," "I'd buy that for a dollar."
 


The weird thing about it to me is that for how bad Brew was (and he was), we went 3-5 in 2008 and 2009 with him.

I think people like Reusse and the general public think we've been 0-8 or 1-7 in the Big 10 for the past 15 seasons.

It hasn't been great, but we were on the verge of 4-4 with Brew in year 2 and 3, I don't think it's too optimistic to expect Kill to be able to bring us to that point and mildly improve.
 

I would argue that it is easier to turn a college team around than a pro team. In 5 years every team has an entire roster of players that weren't there half a decade ago, 4 years (3 if you assume freshman don't play, obviously some do) and you have a roster of players who either weren't there or weren't playing in a redshirt 4 years prior. In 2 years, the list of players we have making regular contributions as will the list of players contributing on each of our opponents' rosters. If we aren't 4-4 before 2015, I will be surprised and upset.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I would argue that it is easier to turn a college team around than a pro team. In 5 years every team has an entire roster of players that weren't there half a decade ago, 4 years (3 if you assume freshman don't play, obviously some do) and you have a roster of players who either weren't there or weren't playing in a redshirt 4 years prior. In 2 years, the list of players we have making regular contributions as will the list of players contributing on each of our opponents' rosters. If we aren't 4-4 before 2015, I will be surprised and upset.
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Sorry, but it's not even close. Pro teams can purge their roster through trades, free agency, and releasing players every off-season, not to mention the worst teams get the top draft picks. Unfortunately, the Gophers won't get to choose the 2nd best player in the country for finishing 2nd to last in the B1G.
 

John Galt said:
Sorry, but it's not even close. Pro teams can purge their roster through trades, free agency, and releasing players every off-season, not to mention the worst teams get the top draft picks. Unfortunately, the Gophers won't get to choose the 2nd best player in the country for finishing 2nd to last in the B1G.
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We can release players every off-season, pick up transfers, and our opponents lose all of their players in a matter of years. The Vikes don't have the luxury of knowing that the Packers will lose every player they have in the next 4 seasons, but the Gophs do have that when we look at Wisco, Michigan, and Nebraska.
 



Bob_Loblaw said:
I think people like Reusse and the general public think we've been 0-8 or 1-7 in the Big 10 for the past 15 seasons.
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Reusse knows better. He also knows that the average fan may not. This is his schtick to get clicks. Lather, rinse, repeat.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
We can release players every off-season, pick up transfers, and our opponents lose all of their players in a matter of years. The Vikes don't have the luxury of knowing that the Packers will lose every player they have in the next 4 seasons, but the Gophs do have that when we look at Wisco, Michigan, and Nebraska.
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An NFL team could in principle replace every player overnight. Cut all the players, and sign free agents. No one would do that, but they could. "Worst to First" isn't uncommon in the NFL, nearly unheard of in college. The rosters turning over every five years isn't a luxury. In college, some teams have big advantages in recruiting. In the NFL, the worst teams get the best players. If an NFL team has a need, they can rectify that need in hours, if not days by trading a player or signing a free agent. It simply is far, far faster to turn around an NFL team.
 

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Don't doubt Reusse.
 

Honestly if in 2015, Kill's 5th year we are 4-4, and something like 8-4 overall with some quality wins that's fine with me. Keeping in mind that in this scenario we'd be led back in 2016 by Nelson and co. coming off of an 8-4 year, should be a chance for a breakout season.
However, in this scenario(Nelson is good),I think this type of season probably happens in 2014, when we have some very winnable games on the NC slate, and most of our tougher divisional games at home. A RSSo would have enough command of an offense to go to a 4-4 BT record.

2015 and 2016 look relatively soft NCwise and would feature Nelson/his team in years 5 and 6 of Kill's contract. Compared to 2003 in year 6 of Mason's contract, that would seem like the time to elevate the program if it's going to happen under Kill.
 



What's the big deal unless people have changed their mind. Kill has said that it would take "4 or 5 seasons". That would be 2014 or 2015. Many posters went out of their way to support the timeline.
 

Since when did Kill say it would take 4 or 5 seasons to reach 4 Big Ten wins?
 

I would gladly take 4 Big Ten wins in 2015. That would likely mean 7 or 8 wins on the season and that would be pretty good progress from the mess we have on our hands this season.
 

We still have a shot at 3-5 this year, with Northwestern and Illinois, two teams recently we've been able to match up well against and get some wins on. I wouldn't count on getting both, but just saying, it's within grasp. As far as 4-4, well just look at the schedules over the coming years:

2012: @Iowa, Northwestern, @Becky, Purdue, Michigan, @Illinois, @Nebraska, MSU.

2013: Iowa, @Michigan, @Northwestern, Nebraska, @IU (finally), PSU, Becky, @MSU.

2014: @PSU, Northwestern, Michigan, @Nebraska, IU, @Iowa, @Becky, MSU.

2015: No schedule yet.

A team like PSU, who knows where their program will be in two years after this whole scandal. We finally get Indiana back on the schedule, we obviously match up decent with Iowa (at least at home), and Northwestern is a team we have good battles with regardless of how bad we are it seems. There's some avenues to pick up some wins I think if this team keeps getting better from what we've seen in the last few weeks. I don't think 4-4 is unreasonable prior to 2015.
 

RodentRampage said:
Since when did Kill say it would take 4 or 5 seasons to reach 4 Big Ten wins?
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He didn't, he said it'd take that long to change the culture, and for some, that meant to "be competitive". Personally, I think Kill's standards are a little higher than .500 ball, and when he's talking about changing the culture, that's the kind of stuff he's probably referring to lol.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
We can release players every off-season, pick up transfers, and our opponents lose all of their players in a matter of years. The Vikes don't have the luxury of knowing that the Packers will lose every player they have in the next 4 seasons, but the Gophs do have that when we look at Wisco, Michigan, and Nebraska.
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It's way easier to turn around an NFL team than a college football program.

First, there is the draft. The Vikings are guranteed to get one of the better players in the world in next year's draft. They will absolutely land one of the top 10 players coming into the NFL. The Gophers...will not. This happens again in the 2nd round and 3rd round, etc.

The good programs bring in more talent every year than the bad programs in college football.

Second, the salary cap makes it difficult to hold onto your own players. A team like the Packers is absolutely stacked. However, in the coming years they are going to have to try to find a way to pay Finley, Jennings, Nelson, Mathews, Raji, their OL, a few more of their defensive players.

So, while being a good team often helps draw players, good teams often lose players at a faster rate than bad teams, only because their players are better (ie more expensive) and it's more difficult to keep that team under the cap.
 

NateDawgUM said:
5966141_2_l.jpg
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I've never believed the Gray's Sports Almanac could be that thin for a half-century of scores from baseball, basketball, football, hockey, horse racing, boxing, "and more!"

Also, that game between UCLA and Washington that Old Biff listens to with Young Biff was B.S. Why would the announcer say "it's all over for UCLA," when all they had to do was kick a 35-yard field goal to win the game? So UCLA won....big effin' deal. If I'm Young Biff, I'm not sold on the old man's promises of riches.
 

Jike Spingleton said:
I've never believed the Gray's Sports Almanac could be that thin for a half-century of scores from baseball, basketball, football, hockey, horse racing, boxing, "and more!"

Also, that game between UCLA and Washington that Old Biff listens to with Young Biff was B.S. Why would the announcer say "it's all over for UCLA," when all they had to do was kick a 35-yard field goal to win the game? So UCLA won....big effin' deal. If I'm Young Biff, I'm not sold on the old man's promises of riches.
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The print in that almanac, though, is like what you'll find at the bottom of the contract you sign before taking a tour of Wonka's chocolate factory.

Someone should bust into Reusse's vehicle and find the 2001-2050 version!
 


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