New Bubble Watch (3/12)

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MadtownGopher

MadtownGopher

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ESPN's new bubble watch is interesting. Says Gophers may just have to keep the score close with MSU if Wisco blows out Illinois. I've considered myself an optimist, but I would have never thought the Gophs would have a shot with an L against MSU. I still don't really believe it but it's interesting that ESPN wrote that.

Minnesota passed its opening test in the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis, blasting Penn State 76-55 in the first round. But the Gophers might need to beat No. 3-seeded Michigan State in Friday's quarterfinals to have a real chance at an NCAA at-large bid.

Minnesota [19-12 (9-9), RPI: 76, SOS: 47] After routing the Nittany Lions, the Gophers still have some work to do in Indy. At the very least, Minnesota probably needs to keep the score close against Michigan State on Friday and hope Illinois gets blown out by Wisconsin. Minnesota is carrying a 62-60 victory at Illinois on Feb. 27, which might help with the NCAA selection committee. The Gophers have three high-end victories, having beaten Wisconsin (home), Butler (neutral) and Ohio State (home). Minnesota is 3-6 against RPI top-50 foes, 4-7 against the top 100 and 3-7 in true road games. The Gophers have five losses to RPI sub-100 opponents, including an ugly 83-55 defeat at Michigan on March 2. The Gophers have won five of their past seven games.
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I actually think we may have a shot even if we lose to MSU simply cause the bubble is so incredibly weak. But I actually think the single most important game to help the Gophers is Illinois. I think if Bucky beats them, we will get in even if we lose to MSU (unless we get blown out).
 

I can't see it. If we lose to MSU we're going to have an RPI in the low 70's. I can't recall many, if any, teams getting in with an RPI that low.
 

howeda7 said:
I can't see it. If we lose to MSU we're going to have an RPI in the low 70's. I can't recall many, if any, teams getting in with an RPI that low.
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A certain Big 10 team got in with a 70+ RPI within the past couple of years if I recall correctly.
 

The selection committee doesn't take into consideration the score, at least officially (IIRC). But I think it be really tough to be on the committee and argue for, say ASU for example, without the image of them rolling over against Stanford flashing in your head. Obviously losing to Stanford is a lot different than losing to Wisconsin, but if the Illini give another weak effort after how they ended the regular season, it'll leave a bad taste. Hey at this point every little advantage helps, even if its in the committee's subconscious.
 


ShowinGoldyLove said:
A certain Big 10 team got in with a 70+ RPI within the past couple of years if I recall correctly.
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Who? I'm not saying it didn't. Anyway, I just can't see them taking Big 10 #5 with an RPI of 78 over Pac 10 #2 or 3 with an RPI in the 40's/50's for example (ASU). There's still politics involved.
 

howeda7 said:
Who? I'm not saying it didn't. Anyway, I just can't see them taking Big 10 #5 with an RPI of 78 over Pac 10 #2 or 3 with an RPI in the 40's/50's for example (ASU). There's still politics involved.
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ASU doesn't have one top 50 win though. I don't think the committee can take a team that lacks a top 50 win and got beat in the first round of their conference tourney, over a team like the Gophers who have multiple top 50 wins and have at least one blow out win in the Big Ten tourney so far. I don't see ASU getting in under any circumstances right now.

Jay Bilas always says that all bubble teams will have some bad loses, so it's more important to look at which teams have shown they can contend by beating top tier teams. Gophers have beat tOSU, Wisconsin, Butler, and Illinois. ASU hasn't beaten a top 50 team. Gophers have shown they can contend with the big boys, ASU hasn't.
 

howeda7 said:
Who? I'm not saying it didn't. Anyway, I just can't see them taking Big 10 #5 with an RPI of 78 over Pac 10 #2 or 3 with an RPI in the 40's/50's for example (ASU). There's still politics involved.
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The latest RPI I saw has Illinois at the 78 RPI and us at 73. A win over Sparty would certainly move that up. ASU is at 55.

I'm not saying they wouldn't take ASU in that scenerio, but the RPI difference would be around 10-15, so wouldn't be nearly as significant. There have been plenty of bubble teams left out in favor of lower rated teams where the RPI difference was greater than 15.
 

The Big L said:
The latest RPI I saw has Illinois at the 78 RPI and us at 73. A win over Sparty would certainly move that up. ASU is at 55.

I'm not saying they wouldn't take ASU in that scenerio, but the RPI difference would be around 10-15, so wouldn't be nearly as significant. There have been plenty of bubble teams left out in favor of lower rated teams where the RPI difference was greater than 15.
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If we win tonight we are definately far ahead of ASU. I believe the OP of this thread was contending that we could be in simply by losing a close game tonight. I disagree.
 



howeda7 said:
If we win tonight we are definately far ahead of ASU. I believe the OP of this thread was contending that we could be in simply by losing a close game tonight. I disagree.
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If we don't beat Sparty tonight we don't deserve to be in. And that's from the biggest, long standing Gopher homer in history. 19-13 won't work- forget it. 20-13 is maybe 50-50. Let's just do it the right way and win the Big Ten tournament so that we don't have ulcers Sunday evening.
 

howeda7 said:
If we win tonight we are definately far ahead of ASU. I believe the OP of this thread was contending that we could be in simply by losing a close game tonight. I disagree.
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Ah, I see. I guess my mind didn't process you saying: "If we lose to MSU we're going to have an RPI in the low 70's". Pretty poor reading comprehension by me throughout. :eek:

Apologies for that! Turns out we are in agreement.
 

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