Bubble Watch (March 10)

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SelectionSunday

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Available at-large bids as of March 10: 6

Tuesday's Results
Dayton 70, George Washington 60
Rhode Island 87, Saint Joseph's 76
Seton Hall 109, Providence 106
South Florida 58, DePaul 49

Wednesday's Slate
Georgetown vs. #66 South Florida, 11 a.m. (ESPN)
Notre Dame vs. #55 Seton Hall, 6 p.m. (ESPN)

The Skinny: Tonight things really start heating up. If Big Easters Seton Hall and (especially) South Florida want to receive at-large invitations, they almost certainly must win in today's second round. Seton Hall had the look of a NCAA-caliber team for much of last night until it went into cruise control and almost choked away a 29-point lead vs. Provience (there's no "d" in Providence).

Wednesday's Conference Tournaments
Big East (2nd round)
Big Sky (title game)
Big West (1st round)
Big 12 (1st round)
Conference USA (1st round)
Great West (3 quarterfinals) -- no auto bid for this conference
MEAC (1st round & 2 quarterfinals)
Mountain West (1st round)
Northeast (title game)
Southland (quarterfinals)
SWAC (2 quarterfinals)
 

So Notre Dame is completely safe even if they lose today, you think?
 

Notre Dame

I can't envision any scenario (save for about 7-8 bid-stealers from here on out) where the Irish don't get a bid. They won their last 4 with their backs squarely against the wall. Three of the 4 were vs. sure-fire NCAA qualifiers (Pitt, Georgetown, Marquette), and 2 of those (Georgetown, Marquette) were on the road. How many bubble teams can say that? Considering how weak the bubble is, there's no way they won't get rewarded for their strong finish, even if they get dumped by Seton Hall tonight.

All that said, at any time I reserve the right to pluck a team from "lock" status and move them to the bubble. Viriginia Tech, if it loses its first game at the ACC Tournament, would be the most likely candidate for that to happen, especially if a lot of bids start getting stolen.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I can't envision any scenario (save for about 7-8 bid-stealers from here on out) where the Irish don't get a bid. They won their last 4 with their backs squarely against the wall. Three of the 4 were vs. sure-fire NCAA qualifiers (Pitt, Georgetown, Marquette), and 2 of those (Georgetown, Marquette) were on the road. How many bubble teams can say that? Considering how weak the bubble is, there's no way they won't get rewarded for their strong finish, even if they get dumped by Seton Hall tonight.
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If Notre Dame loses tonight and one of the SEC bubble teams and the Gophers or Illinois go to their conference finals ND could conceivably be out but everything would have to go bad in ND eyes for that to happen. ND is in, you'll have to listen to Digger talk them up for awhile.
 

Trust me, the last thing I want to hear is Digger blabbing on & on about the school that fired him, but Notre Dame has earned its stripes down the stretch. I don't think it's a coincidence they've done all this with Luke "Stats" Harangody on the bench. Nobody at ESPN has the guts to say that, even though you know there's gotta' be at least a couple talking heads thinking it.
 


I always find it interesting when a star player goes out and the team improves...makes you wonder about team chemistry a little.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Trust me, the last thing I want to hear is Digger blabbing on & on about the school that fired him, but Notre Dame has earned its stripes down the stretch. I don't think it's a coincidence they've done all this with Luke "Stats" Harangody on the bench. Nobody at ESPN has the guts to say that, even though you know there's gotta' be at least a couple talking heads thinking it.
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Nice take on the Harangody angle.
 

rcpratt said:
So Notre Dame is completely safe even if they lose today, you think?
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I cannot see Notre Dame being excluded from the tournament. They have a solid record and have won their last four games over tournament/tournament calibur teams (Pitt, Georgetown, UConn, Marquette). As much as I dislike them, they deserve to be in the field of 65; even if they lose their first tourny game.
 

Great news for us that South Florida is laying an egg and looking terrible against Georgetown right now. Almost halftime and they only have 13 points. IMO, they are definitely on the outside looking in if they lose today
 



jjgopher said:
Great news for us that South Florida is laying an egg and looking terrible against Georgetown right now. Almost halftime and they only have 13 points. IMO, they are definitely on the outside looking in if they lose today
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31-19 at half...I'd agree with you that they look terrible, however they looked terrible against GT earlier this year down nine going into half and came out in the second and scored 46 points. I wouldn't count them out yet. (Although I hope they continue sucking)
 

SS,

Where do you lineup with what was said on Myron's chat?

Myron P. Medcalf: Call me an extremist. But I think they need a Big Ten tournament title. The selection committee chair, Dan Guerrero, just held a teleconference. He said conference tournaments can help a team's resume "to some degree." He also reminded everyone that the conference tournaments represents about 1 percent of a team's full body of work. Even with three wins, I still think the Gophers would miss the field. They wouldn't pass the eye test in my opinion. Wednesday March 10, 2010 12:04 Myron P. Medcalf

12:05 Myron P. Medcalf: Remember this is a very subjective process. They're going to have to find a way to convince the committee that they're not the team that lost by 30 points at Michigan with their season on the line. Don't think they can do that with two quality wins. But I could be wrong. And that's what I love about this process. We're bracketologists. It's fun to speculate. Wednesday March 10, 2010 12:05 Myron P. Medcalf
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He thinks highly of himself calling himself a bracketologist. He obviously doesnt do much research if he thinks the Gophers won't be in the tournament if they make the BTT finals. And if a team plays 3 games in their conference tourney, isn't that 10% of their season, not 1%?
 



That 1% comment is the dumbest thing I've ever read. And only Myron would be dumb enough to actually quote that in an article.
 

Honestly, there are about 10 posters on this board who's thoughts I put more stock in that Myron Metcalf. I'd like to see him put his 'bracketologist' skill up against SS. I'd put the line at SS -6. He's done (and over-done) some good coverage on the off-court issues this season. But I have very little respect for his on-court basketball knowledge.
 

TheHofferette said:
I always find it interesting when a star player goes out and the team improves...makes you wonder about team chemistry a little.
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This is an interesting bit of phenomena that seems to cut across all of sport. Do you think team chemistry or is it more a product of increased intensity / strategy to compensate for the loss. Also, how does the opponent react? Less intense, change their preparation, etc? Still interesting in the sports psychology realm.
 

maxwellsmart said:
This is an interesting bit of phenomena that seems to cut across all of sport. Do you think team chemistry or is it more a product of increased intensity / strategy to compensate for the loss. Also, how does the opponent react? Less intense, change their preparation, etc? Still interesting in the sports psychology realm.
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it does seem to apply to any sport you watch, that's a really good point. I wonder also if other players feel like they have a better shot to prove their worth once Player MVP goes down.
 

So if the Gophers beat two likely top 5 seeds in 3 days, they wouldn't pass the eye test? Really?
 

maxwellsmart said:
This is an interesting bit of phenomena that seems to cut across all of sport. Do you think team chemistry or is it more a product of increased intensity / strategy to compensate for the loss. Also, how does the opponent react? Less intense, change their preparation, etc? Still interesting in the sports psychology realm.
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Or star players who are only good at offense being replaced by moderately good players that can play on both sides of the ball.
 

I don't want to pile on Myron. He's right; it's certainly possible the Gophers will need to win the BTT, especially if teams like UTEP, Cal, Utah State and/or other other conference tournament favorites and/or NCAA tourney locks get knocked off. That's still a distinct possibility. Bubble teams have been fortunate so far with the lack of upsets. I wouldn't expect that to continue all the way through Championship Week.

However, for someone to say definitively that the Gophers "have to win the BTT" in order to get a bid, I can't agree with that. If things continue to go the way of the favorites, I can definitely see scenarios where the Gophers can get in with 2 wins in Indy, 3 for sure. Now if someone asks me if I think it's likely the Gophers will win 2 or 3 in Indy (I think they'll be hard pressed to win 1), I'd say no. But is it possible? Yes.
 

Losing OT games they had leads in to Indiana and NW, along with blowing 8 point leads vs MSU and Purdue in the final 8 minutes has left an indelible blackmark on the Gophers' resume.

Committee members will remember those blown games and think the Gophers are simply not gritty enough to merit a trip to the dance. If they win any of those games they'd be in field now and only need 1 more win over PSU.

But as it stands, The Gophers need wins over PSU, MSU and Purdue to put themselves on the brink...losing in the final would make it very dicey depending on how respectable they were.

But honestly, this team is too schitzo and I fully expect a tight, flat and Michigan-like performance vs PSU. PSU are playing their best ball and have no pressure....The Gophers shouldn't feel pressure but Tubby's style of coaching creates pressure and our players haven't handled it well this year.
 

Harangody doesn't play defense. The Irish have given up under 60 ppg during their last four games without Luke, and one of those games was an OT affair.

In their other 14 Big East games this season they had not allowed less than 60 points in any game - 8 times allowing 70 or more, and 5 times allowing 80 or more points.
 

Marquette is in a dog fight right now with St. John's...would a Red Storm win put Marquette back on the bubble?
 

Lunardi still has them on the bubble, 8 teams from the cut line, but I would bet a loss would bring them much closer to that cut line.
 

Marquette is in pretty much the same boat as Notre Dame (strong finish). They've earned it down the stretch and won't/shouldn't be punished simply because they get upset in the 2nd round of the Big East tourney.

I think the top 8 in the Big East are all safe. Now it's just a matter whether Seton Hall can sneak in as the 9th team from the Big East. Even if Seton Hall loses tonight I give them a chance; not a great chance, but not completely out of it.
 

Moses87 said:
Losing OT games they had leads in to Indiana and NW, along with blowing 8 point leads vs MSU and Purdue in the final 8 minutes has left an indelible blackmark on the Gophers' resume.

Committee members will remember those blown games and think the Gophers are simply not gritty enough to merit a trip to the dance. If they win any of those games they'd be in field now and only need 1 more win over PSU.

But as it stands, The Gophers need wins over PSU, MSU and Purdue to put themselves on the brink...losing in the final would make it very dicey depending on how respectable they were.

But honestly, this team is too schitzo and I fully expect a tight, flat and Michigan-like performance vs PSU. PSU are playing their best ball and have no pressure....The Gophers shouldn't feel pressure but Tubby's style of coaching creates pressure and our players haven't handled it well this year.
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Do you have any reasoning to anything you say, or are you just blabbering whatever you feel like saying?
 

Maroon Shower said:
Marquette is in a dog fight right now with St. John's...would a Red Storm win put Marquette back on the bubble?
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I don't think it would have, but whew... glad we pulled it out. A two-point victory, but for us this year, that's just another normal game.

Nova tomorrow... GO MARQUETTE!
 

Congrats to Marquette. The Buzz man has done a marvelous job this season.
 

Marquette had many stretches of no scoring today...MU can't do that against Nova. luckily, Nova seems to have peaked and appears more beatable right now.
 

2 key losses by Seton Hall and S Florida today. IMO, if we win 2 in the big 10 tourney, we definitely move ahead of these teams.
 

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