Our Bowl Opponent

Its pretty simple, if two BT teams get BCS bowls, we are almost certainly going to the Insight Bowl (I just can't see the Alamo Bowl choosing us over Michigan State). So, who will our BigXII opponent be?

If Texas loses the BigXII championship then the winner (Nebraska) would be guaranteed a BCS bowl and Texas would beat out Penn State or Iowa for an open slot (meaning we go to the Pizza Bowl). So the following assumption is made on Texas winning that game and the BigTen having 2 BCS teams:

The following Big XII teams aren't going bowling, so they can be eliminated from consideration: Kansas State, Colorado & Baylor.

The following teams are guaranteed a spot higher than the Insight Bowl even if they lose their remaining game(s): Texas, Oklahoma State, Nebraska & Texas Tech (if they lose and Mizzou wins, then they'll be tied, but the 2 bowls they'd vie for are the Sun and Alamo who would choose them in a heartbeat).

Iowa State is done and their 6-6 (3-5) record won't allow them to go as high in the conference's pecking order as the Insight (same thing for Kansas if they beat Mizzou to become bowl eligible).

So that leaves the following possible opponents: Oklahoma, Mizzou and Texas A&M who are fighting for spots in the Sun, Insight and Texas Bowls. I’ve spent some time trying to figure out every permutation of wins and losses for these teams and the likely outcomes thereof.

From what I can figure, the only way that we play Texas A&M is if they beat Texas, but the Sun Bowl chooses Missouri over A&M (not very likely).

So, I would put it at 95%+ that our opponent is going to be determined by the winner of the Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State game:
If the Cowboys wins that game, we’ll play Oklahoma;
If the Sooners win that game, we’ll play Mizzou.

I think Oklahoma is the stronger of these two teams because their conference record will be better (or at the least equal) even though they play in the more difficult South division; all of the teams they lost to are bowl teams; they have more depth than Mizzou, and; Mizzou lost to Baylor.

I guess I’d rather play the more beatable team at this point, so I’m cheering for Oklahoma to win this weekend so that we play Missouri in the Insight Bowl.
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If, on the other hand, only 1 BT team goes to a BCS bowl, they we're almost certainly in the Little Caeser's Pizza bowl versus the winner of the MAC Championship. That championship will pit the winner of Friday's Temple/Ohio game against Central Michigan. No matter who we play, its a no win situation. If we win then -whoopee- we beat a MAC team (the Big Ten's preseason fodder), if we lose, then we look horrible. The only way I'd want to play CMU is if they're ranked, otherwise, I'd rather see the Goiphers against Temple or Ohio.

GGR, I'll re-post what I put in the thread further down the board. Win or lose, it's unlikely that Oklahoma ends up in the Insight Bowl. The only way that happens is if they lose to Okie State, but the Fiesta snubs OSU. It would be a major strain on the Fiesta-B12 relationship to snub a 10-2 team ranked in the top 10.

"From what I hear, it comes down to this:

The Big Ten will have two BCS teams. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, Okie State goes to the Fiesta Bowl as the replacement for Texas, and the Orange Bowl will take Penn State. If Oklahoma wins, the Big 12 only gets one BCS team (barring Nebraska upsetting Texas in the B12 title game) and the Fiesta Bowl will take Iowa. Either way, this puts us in the Insight Bowl, because we all know the Alamo wants no part of Minnesota.

If Oklahoma wins and finishes 7-5, they would probably move ahead of 8-4 Missouri in the pecking order: Okie State to the Cotton, Nebraska to the Holiday, Texas Tech to the Alamo, Oklahoma to the Sun, Missouri to the Insight, Texas A&M to the Texas, Iowa State to the Independence.

In the event of an Okie State win, that bumps everyone up a notch in the Big 12 pecking order. Nebraska to the Cotton, Texas Tech to the Holiday, Missouri to the Alamo. Then there's a glut of 6-6 teams: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Iowa State. Oklahoma, obviously, would be the most attractive and would go to the Sun, leaving the Insight to choose between A&M and ISU. A&M is more desirable, but they would likely rather play closer to home in the Texas Bowl, and it's not like ISU would travel poorly to Tempe, so I believe a deal would be arranged for the Insight to snag Iowa State."

Even if Nebraska shocked Texas and won the Big XII title game, they still can only have two teams in the BCS, which would knock Oklahoma State out.

I think you'll see 2 Big Ten teams in regardless of what happens. Iowa fans should be fans of Oklahoma & Texas the next few weekends.

FireDaveLee said:

Even if Nebraska shocked Texas and won the Big XII title game, they still can only have two teams in the BCS, which would knock Oklahoma State out.

I think you'll see 2 Big Ten teams in regardless of what happens. Iowa fans should be fans of Oklahoma & Texas the next few weekends.

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Yes - like I said, "if Oklahoma wins, the Big 12 only gets one BCS team (barring Nebraska upsetting Texas in the B12 title game)."

Boise State fans will be joining Iowa in rooting for Oklahoma and Texas. If Okie State wins, be prepared for more hatred directed at the Big Ten for getting two teams in the BCS while Boise gets left out.

I was more referring to the top post saying that we'd be knocked to the Pizza Bowl if Nebraska beat Texas.

I don't think it will matter who wins the Big XII championship....I see the Big Ten getting two teams in. It's just a matter of whether Oklahoma State is able to bump Iowa out and push Penn State in. And you're right that there will be some more hatred directed at the Big Ten if Boise is left out.

FireDaveLee said:

I don't think it will matter who wins the Big XII championship....I see the Big Ten getting two teams in. It's just a matter of whether Oklahoma State is able to bump Iowa out and push Penn State in. And you're right that there will be some more hatred directed at the Big Ten if Boise is left out.

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Agreed. If Nebraska upsets Texas in the Big 12 Championship, they would get the auto invite to the Fiesta and Texas would land in the Orange. The BCS matchups would be:

NCG: Alabama/Florida vs. TCU
Sugar: Alabama/Florida vs. Cincinnati/Pitt
Orange: Georgia Tech/Clemson vs. Texas
Fiesta: Nebraska vs. Iowa

In that case, the Big Ten will receive a ton of criticism for Boise getting left out, perhaps deservedly so. But if Okie State gets in the BCS as an at-large, they should receive an equal amount of criticism, but of course, won't.