2019 Golden Gophers Season Preview and Prediction: ("9 win season is on the table")

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2019 Golden Gophers Season Preview and Prediction: ("9 win season is on the table")

per Athlon:

Previewing Minnesota's Offense for 2019

The Gophers' nine returning offensive starters are the most in the Big Ten West, and it marks the first time Fleck will return experience at quarterback.

Sophomore QB Zack Annexstad won the job out of training camp in 2018 and started the first seven games before he was injured. Sophomore Tanner Morgan took over the rest of the way. Annexstad was 3–4 as a starter, while Morgan was 4–2. Morgan had a 147.6 passer rating to Annexstad's 117.7. Annexstad seems to be the better pure passer, while the shorter Morgan tends to create more with his legs.

The Gophers will feature a stable of quality targets, including All-Big Ten senior Tyler Johnson, who set single-season program records of 1,169 yards and 12 touchdowns a year ago. Lauded freshman Rashod Bateman impressed with 704 yards and six TDs. Tight ends Brevyn Spann-Ford and Jake Paulson could provide another layer of receiving options for a Gophers offense that has lacked any threat from the position under Fleck.

Sophomore back Mohamed Ibrahim rushed for 5.7 yards per carry and nine scores, with a Quick Lane Bowl MVP to cap his surprising year. He took a leading role after Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks went down with ACL injuries. Smith and Brooks will be back healthy in 2019, setting up a three-headed rushing attack. Together, Brooks and Smith have rushed for more than 4,000 yards and nearly 40 touchdowns.

The Gophers' two departures come on the offensive line, and filling the left tackle spot vacated by Donnell Greene was the biggest challenge in spring practice.

Previewing Minnesota's Defense for 2019

Fleck fired defensive coordinator Robb Smith after his unit allowed 646 yards in a 55–31 blowout loss to lowly Illinois last November. It was the last straw after three previous Big Ten opponents put up at least 42 points and 420 total yards in blowouts. Interim DC Joe Rossi earned the job on a permanent basis after the Gophers' historic win over Wisconsin for Paul Bunyan's Axe, their first win in Madison since 1994.

It will be interesting to see the stamp Rossi puts on the defense with a full year to prepare. The view in spring practice was a base 4-3 front, with many variations off of it.

Last year's top two tacklers — linebacker Blake Cashman and safety Jacob Huff — are gone, but dangerous end Carter Coughlin headlines the list of six returning starters. Coughlin’s speed and pass-rush moves are tough to stop. He had a 9.5-sack season in 2018.

Minnesota natives Thomas Barber and Kamal Martin will stabilize a linebacker corps without Cashman.

The biggest boon is the return of safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who redshirted after a foot injury in the fourth game a year ago. The Freshman All-American in 2016 will be counted on to provide leadership in a secondary with a host of unproven players. Sophomore Terell Smith has the length, speed and early experience to now become a top cornerback.

Defensive tackle is the most uncertain position group, with Notre Dame graduate transfer Micah Dew-Treadway set to be counted on this season. A pair of 2019 recruits, Keonte Schad and Rashad Cheney, will need to quickly acclimate to the physical demands of the Big Ten.

Previewing Minnesota's Specialists for 2019

Emmit Carpenter, the Gophers' most accurate placekicker ever, is gone, and a position battle will be waged between scholarship freshman Michael Lantz and UConn graduate transfer Michael Tarbutt. Senior punter Jacob Herbers punted only 51 times, the fewest in a Gophers season since 2005.

Winfield and Demetrius Douglas each had punt returns for touchdowns last season.

Final Analysis

The Gophers' light nonconference schedule and easier crossover games against the Big Ten East (Maryland, Penn State and Rutgers) put a nine-win season — including the bowl game — on the table for the first time since 2016. Given Minnesota’s returning offensive production, a measure of improvement from Annexstad and/or Morgan could make this one of the top offenses in the Big Ten. If Rossi’s defense builds on a strong finish to 2018 and replaces a few key tacklers, Minnesota might have balance on both sides of the ball.

National Ranking: 40

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/minnesota-football-golden-gophers-prediction-preview-2019

Go Gophers!!
 

I feel like a nine win season doesnt jive with a national ranking of 40th. Furthermore, if the Gophers only win 9 games of a 13 game schedule, I will be greatly disappointed and could only conclude that the injury bug wrinkled our 2019 plans.
 

To start the season all the wins are on the table.

But counting them early is really hard to know, plenty of teams count on a win from us every year too...
 

I feel like a nine win season doesnt jive with a national ranking of 40th. Furthermore, if the Gophers only win 9 games of a 13 game schedule, I will be greatly disappointed and could only conclude that the injury bug wrinkled our 2019 plans.

Agreed. 9-3 regular season is my expectation. With a few lucky breaks, it could be magical. Get'er done Fleck & Co.
 

8-4 is my official prediction for 2019 regular season but 9-3 wouldn't surprise me and as PMW says, the potential is there for something magical. I would be mildly surprised at 7-5 (this would mean the wide open improving B1G West wouldn't play out favorably with any breaks for the Gophers). I would be very surprised at 6-6 or worse and would consider that a regression from the potential showed in 2018.
 


Athlon wants us to fail. Troll.


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8-4 is my official prediction for 2019 regular season but 9-3 wouldn't surprise me and as PMW says, the potential is there for something magical. I would be mildly surprised at 7-5 (this would mean the wide open improving B1G West wouldn't play out favorably with any breaks for the Gophers). I would be very surprised at 6-6 or worse and would consider that a regression from the potential showed in 2018.

It's so hard to pick the last number as the Gophers have never shown themselves to be beyond a derpy game at least once per season... that means you have to pick a game to loose you really don't want to... it stinks, but it happens every year, and even to the very best teams.
 

It's so hard to pick the last number as the Gophers have never shown themselves to be beyond a derpy game at least once per season... that means you have to pick a game to loose you really don't want to... it stinks, but it happens every year, and even to the very best teams.

They will need to change their best in 2019 and overcome.
 

If we finish the regular season 9-3, it will be the best regular season record since 2003. The last time before 2003 that we would have had a better regular season record would be 1967 (8-2).

Anyone that "expects" Fleck to accomplish this, especially in year 3, must think he's far and away the best coach we've had in the last 50 years...
 



If we finish the regular season 9-3, it will be the best regular season record since 2003. The last time before 2003 that we would have had a better regular season record would be 1967 (8-2).

Anyone that "expects" Fleck to accomplish this, especially in year 3, must think he's far and away the best coach we've had in the last 50 years...




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Anyone that "expects" Fleck to accomplish this, especially in year 3, must think he's far and away the best coach we've had in the last 50 years...

Well, he's no Tracy Claeys, but...
 


I feel like a nine win season doesnt jive with a national ranking of 40th. Furthermore, if the Gophers only win 9 games of a 13 game schedule, I will be greatly disappointed and could only conclude that the injury bug wrinkled our 2019 plans.

For a program that has only won 9 or more games twice in the last 20 seasons not sure how winning only 9 games this season could be considered disappointing.


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For a program that has only won 9 or more games twice in the last 114 seasons not sure how winning only 9 games this season could be considered disappointing.


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FIFY
 

I see about 5 should wins and then a bunch of toss ups that are impossible to predict right now. Nebraska, Purdue, Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Penn State, Maryland. Is anyone going to (honestly) bet the farm on any of those? Talk is cheap. I’ll believe we’re going to go for 9+ if we roll up the non conference slate and take down Nebraska. If that dominos falls The hype train will be rolling as far as I’m concerned.

This season could realistically go anywhere from 4 wins to 12. Percentages/stats seem to usually say we’ll stay in a +/- range of 2 vs the prior year but outlier years happen.
 

I hope the Gopher go 9-3 or 10 - 2 in the regular season & go to a bowl as long as you understand that GSU will be one of your close losses.

GOOD LUCK GOPHERS!

TALON
 

For a program that has only won 9 or more games twice in the last 20 seasons not sure how winning only 9 games this season could be considered disappointing.


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Yeah... 9 wouldn't be disappointing. It's a realistic expectation though.

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I hope the Gopher go 9-3 or 10 - 2 in the regular season & go to a bowl as long as you understand that GSU will be one of your close losses.

GOOD LUCK GOPHERS!

TALON

I'd actually be okay with this. It would mean we'd go at least 3-2 against Nebraska, Penn St, Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin.
 

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I hope the Gopher go 9-3 or 10 - 2 in the regular season & go to a bowl as long as you understand that GSU will be one of your close losses.

GOOD LUCK GOPHERS!

TALON

We aren't going to lose to your squad. Hope Its a good game though
 

I ran a quick simulation of 10,000 seasons (assumptions stated below):
The Gophers won 0 games 0 times.
The Gophers won 1 games 0 times.
The Gophers won 2 games 0 times.
The Gophers won 3 games 3 times. (0.03%)
The Gophers won 4 games 26 times. (0.26%)
The Gophers won 5 games 185 times. (1.85%)
The Gophers won 6 games 710 times. (7.10%)
The Gophers won 7 games 1753 times. (17.53%)
The Gophers won 8 games 2462 times. (24.62%)
The Gophers won 9 games 2568 times. (25.68%)
The Gophers won 10 games 1545 times. (15.45%)
The Gophers won 11 games 591 times. (5.91%)
The Gophers won 12 games 149 times. (1.49%)
The Gophers won 13 games 8 times. (0.08%)

Using Bill Connelly's 2019 projected S&P rankings found here:
https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...63/2019-college-football-rankings-projections
I ignore correlations between games (this means that the tails are probably fatter than what I predict).
I assume the Gophers have a 50% chance of winning their bowl game (I think this is high, historically speaking?)
I assume the Gophers will not make the CFP if undefeated.
I also ignored the B1G championship game (probably doesn't shift the curve much in either direction regardless).

Also, because SDSU is not projected in Connelly's ranking, I assume that they are about as good as Georgia Southern (though in reality they're probably a tad better).
 
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It looks like a lot of people are counting the Fresno St game as a lock victory. I do not - we were very fortunate to win against them last year.
 

Consensus on this board is that they lost too many players to compete. I'm not buying it either.
Gophers are far more likely to beat Rutgers/Maryland/Illinois than Fresno State, which should be a tossup, imo.
 
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Consensus on this board is that they lost too many players to compete. I'm not buying it either.
Gophers are far more likely to beat Rutgers/Maryland/Illinois than Fresno State, which should be a tossup, imo.

Agree about Rutgers and Illinois. I think were more likely to beat Fresno than Maryland though.

Edit: Not a shot at Fresno. Maryland has alot of talent
 

We can’t win 9 if we are afraid of Fresno State. Good Grief. We should roll Fresno.


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We can’t win 9 if we are afraid of Fresno State. Good Grief. We should roll Fresno.


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It is perplexing. Same group posting Gophs turned the corner in how they finished out 2018. Significant majority of GHers, me included, agreed that 2018 Gophs should have won at least two more games. I think Gophs will be better compared to that squad.
 


I mean, the statisticians say that you're wrong so idk what to tell you man.

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100% chance of defeating Rutgers...? I mean, they’re really bad, unlikely to be good this year, and we’re better but any model that states 100% probability has to be suspect. In recent years IIRC even our worst teams have had anywhere from a 2-15% chance of defeating the Ohio States and Michigan’s and the gulf in talent between eg MN and OSU is astronomically larger than between MN and Rutgers.
 

So are you are saying the U wasted $210M+ on the Athletes Village and bringing in Fleck...that program history can't be improved upon?

I'm saying that y'all are seriously underestimating Fresno versus the rest our our very weak schedule.
Fresno, according to Bill Connelly's SP, which has Fresno slated to fall from the 16th best team in the country to the 51st best team in the country, is still projected to be a tougher game for Minnesota than SDSU, GASO, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, Maryland, AND Northwestern.
 




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