Assuming we can't reach the 6 spot to play the winner of the first round, Rutgers is probably the best matchup. 2 of their 3 remaining 3 are against teams playing Wednesday so they could improve to 8-12. Illinois plays Purdue and 3 teams they've already lost to so it wouldn't be too hard to see them falling. Illinois would hold the tiebreaker if it's a 2-way tie but there's a lot of teams around that area so it could easily be 3+ teams, possibly including Minnesota.
If we make it past Thursday, the next round will be rough no matter what. Michigan might be the best matchup for Friday and I think it's likely they drop but that still wouldn't be easy.