Without Lynch, here's Gophers bare minimum path to NCAA Tournament

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SelectionSunday

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Gophers tale of the tape. ...

Pre-Reggie Lynch
Record: 13-3, 2-1
Likely Quadrant 1 Wins (2): @ Providence, vs. Alabama

Post-Reggie Lynch Goals
Record: 9-6
Quadrant 1 Wins: 3

Totals
Record: 22-9, 11-7
Quadrant 1 Wins (5): @ Providence, vs. Alabama, *Purdue, vs. *Ohio State, @ *Michigan,

Must Win Home Games (4): Indiana, Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa

Pivotal Road Games (Win 2 of 5): Northwestern, Penn State, Iowa, Indiana, Wisconsin

Games vs. Opponents Most Like Us (win 2 of 3): @ Maryland, vs. Ohio State, @ Michigan

The Ginormous Ones (win 1 of 3): Purdue, Michigan State, @ Purdue (beating a likely #1 seed MSU is preferred, as that would feel like 2 wins)

It could look something like this:

Indiana (W)
@ Northwestern (L)
Purdue (W)
@ Penn State (L)
@ Maryland (L)
vs. Ohio State (W)
Northwestern (W)
@ Iowa (L)
@ Michigan (W)
Nebraska (W)
@ Indiana (W)
Michigan State (L)
@ Wisconsin (W)
Iowa (W)
@ Purdue (L)
 

I think it's important to win the next two. Northwestern just got hammered by Nebraska and I assume will be without McIntosh. And we don't have to deal with whatever voodoo Wesh-Ryan arena had on us.
 

I think we win more than 2 of those 5 pivotal road games. There are some struggling teams in that bunch. But I agree with you that 11-7 is the magic number.
 

howeda7 said:
I think it's important to win the next two. Northwestern just got hammered by Nebraska and I assume will be without McIntosh. And we don't have to deal with whatever voodoo Wesh-Ryan arena had on us.
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Collins is 3-0 in Williams Arena.
 



Going to be awfully tough to win in Ann Arbor with this currently constructed roster.
 


WriterGoph said:
I think we win more than 2 of those 5 pivotal road games. There are some struggling teams in that bunch.
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2 of 5 is a low-end bar, but it won't be easy. If you gave me 3 of those right now I'd take it in a heartbeat. More importantly, have to find a way to win 3 of the toughest 6.
 

Without Lynch I just can't see us beating Purdue or Michigan State and I think we will have at least a few games where teams get Murphy into foul trouble at which point we will be dead in the water. This is still a talented roster but long stretches of Konate are bad news as he typically looks ok in small doses but gets exposed when he has to play a lot.
 



I think we beat Northwestern on the road and therefore won't need to steal one against either of the Michigans or Purdue. I really do not know what to expect out of this team... tomorrow will be a huge indicator of how good they can actually be without Lynch.

The person who should be licking their chops to get out of the dog house is Fitzgerald...if he can contribute like I have heard he can, he should be a decent 4 while Murphy plays as an undersized 5.
 

Frank Grimey Grimes said:
I think we beat Northwestern on the road and therefore won't need to steal one against either of the Michigans or Purdue. I really do not know what to expect out of this team... tomorrow will be a huge indicator of how good they can actually be without Lynch.

The person who should be licking their chops to get out of the dog house is Fitzgerald...if he can contribute like I have heard he can, he should be a decent 4 while Murphy plays as an undersized 5.
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I don't think tomorrow is a good indicator at all. The first game, with 1 practice (a walk through), after losing a starter? That makes no sense. Thats like saying Harvard as a good indicator of how good the Gophers would be without Nate Mason.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
I don't think tomorrow is a good indicator at all. The first game, with 1 practice (a walk through), after losing a starter? That makes no sense. Thats like saying Harvard as a good indicator of how good the Gophers would be without Nate Mason.
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I think it will be pretty obvious whether or not this team can survive without lynch fairly quickly...not like BK or anyone who replaces Lynch is going to become a star from this point til the end of the season.

I agree that they will marginally improve as they adjust to no Lynch but it is not that similar to the Mason situation since we have solid guard depth.
 

Frank Grimey Grimes said:
I agree that they will marginally improve as they adjust to no Lynch but it is not that similar to the Mason situation since we have solid guard depth.
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If you had to pick one; play the rest of the season without Lynch or Mason... I'd rather have Mason on the court.
 



Sigh...I was worried about our depth before Reggie. Lot's has to happen for us to accomplish 11-7 or higher. I think #1 We have to have the core four guys healthy from here on out. And they just cannot get in foul trouble early.
Mason has to lead and score. Murphy has to step up one more notch. Coffey has to assert himself every night. And McBrayer needs to get involved from the outset and stay engaged. I think those four guys might meet that challenge.
If that happens I think the role players will fill in and somebody will step up each night, but if they can't feed off the four experienced guys then it could be ugly. Tentative confidence will completely disappear from the role guys and we'll get bullied.
#2 Pitino was coach of the year last year. He needs to repeat for us to get this done...at least Gopherhole outrage if he gets snubbed. Pitino is a major factor! Can he motivate and hold these guys together?
I'm optimistic it will be exciting to watch. It starts versus Indiana....gotta win!!
 

I'm still not sold that 11-7 will get us to lock status, especially if we were to lose in the first round of the BTT. Even if the scenario above plays out, we'll still have an RPI in the high 40's. Assuming an 11-7 record will probably have us sitting at #4/5 in the standings we'll either play #12/13 seed, which is a no win situation or play the #5 seed, which would presumably be against another bubble team(thinking Ohio State/Maryland maybe). If we lose to the likes of Rutgers, Iowa, Illinois, we're going to have an RPI in the 50's at that point. Our resume would be very similar to that of Providence and K-St last year who were in the first 4.
 

HOOP DREAMS said:
If you had to pick one; play the rest of the season without Lynch or Mason... I'd rather have Mason on the court.
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Murphy is good in the paint but this defense goes from solid to mediocre/a problem without Lynch as the rim protector.
 

Certainly doable. Pitino is a good coach and I'm interested to see what kind of adjustments he will make. There are a few teams that not having Lynch for looks to be a much bigger issue for mainly Michigan State.
 

RickDornsby said:
Murphy is good in the paint but this defense goes from solid to mediocre/a problem without Lynch as the rim protector.
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False. Murph is good defender and #13 in the B1G for blocks.

Playing next to Reggie absolutely helps, but he can handle his own.
 

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