Massey Ratings has Gophers going 18-12

Lakers612

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Massey Ratings has the Gophers ranked #50, and is projecting the team to finis 12-1 in nonconference play with 6 wins in Big Ten play: Ohio St. at home; Maryland at home; Iowa at home; Rutgers away; Penn St. at home; Nebraska at home.

(The win probability for Michigan at home was 49%, virtually a coin flip, but I counted it as a loss anyway.)

I get that this is Massey Ratings is just based on a formula, and that it's hard to project out a full season, but I think this offers some good metrics as to what the Gophers have accomplished this season, and what we can expect going forward.

Do you think that the Gophers would be tourney bound if they finished 18-12?

Our Big Ten losses would be: Michigan St. away; Penn St. away; Wisconsin at home; Ohio St. away; Iowa away; Indiana at home; Michigan at home; Maryland away; and Wiscosnin away

Which games would we have to steal in order to solidify a NCAA bid.

Obviously Penn St. at Penn St. jumps out as a potential win.
 

No way six B1G wins gets us in. 12-1 and 9-9 would be close to a lock, but no assurances. Conference schedule is very tough. I would be ecstatic with nine wins. Six won't be enough to calm the mob that is after Pitino. Need a quality road win or two in there somewhere. Rutgers won't cut it.
 


These ratings overvalue home vs away. @PSU should be a win. I'd be surprised if we win at home vs OSU. It would be nice to get the at Iowa win as well.
 

Well for one this would put us at 18-13 and also we don't travel to Iowa, tough to win or lose a game that doesn't exist
 


No way 6-12 gets us to the tournament. Maybe it would if we had like 3 top 10 wins out of conference, but yeah, 6-12 is probably skirting the edge of getting into the NIT, though wins over Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and UT-Arlington might be enough to keep us in.

Tubby's 3 tournament appearances all came with a conference record of 9-9 or worse, though he got at least one quality, top 25-ish win out of conference in all of those years (Louisville, Butler, Memphis). In 2009-10, we lost to Portland, Texas A&M, and Miami immediately after beating Butler. I don't think any of our non-conference opponents will be top 25 material, though maybe Arkansas could be top 50. And hopefully/probably finishing 12-1 headed into conference play means we won't have any really bad losses, which always helps.

I'd like to think 9-9 in conference, 12-1 out of conference, and maybe 1-1 in the Big Ten Tournament would get us in at 22-11. At that point, I'd imagine our worst losses could potentially be road games to fringe top 100 teams like Penn State and Illinois, if the Illini drop that far, or maybe a home game against Penn State or Iowa. Good wins could be Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, or Wisconsin at home, or maybe Northwestern or Maryland on the road (though we're actually ahead of Maryland in kenpom right now).

Another site, teamrankings.com, has us projected to go 9.1-8.9 in conference, so pretty much .500, and 20.8-10.2 overall, currrently ranked #46 with a 56.5% chance to make the tournament.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/minnesota-golden-gophers/projections
 

How can they go 18-12 when they'll play at least 32 games?
 

Massey Ratings has the Gophers ranked #50, and is projecting the team to finis 12-1 in nonconference play with 6 wins in Big Ten play: Ohio St. at home; Maryland at home; Iowa at home; Rutgers away; Penn St. at home; Nebraska at home.

(The win probability for Michigan at home was 49%, virtually a coin flip, but I counted it as a loss anyway.)

I get that this is Massey Ratings is just based on a formula, and that it's hard to project out a full season, but I think this offers some good metrics as to what the Gophers have accomplished this season, and what we can expect going forward.

Do you think that the Gophers would be tourney bound if they finished 18-12?

Our Big Ten losses would be: Michigan St. away; Penn St. away; Wisconsin at home; Ohio St. away; Iowa away; Indiana at home; Michigan at home; Maryland away; and Wiscosnin away

Which games would we have to steal in order to solidify a NCAA bid.

Obviously Penn St. at Penn St. jumps out as a potential win.

18 wins wouldn't even get us into the NIT. Look at Northwestern last year. Similar nonconf schedule to what we have this year. They went 12-1 in nonconf, 8-10 in B1G play, lost in the first round of the conference tournament (in a somewhat controversial finish IIRC) and they didn't even make the NIT. It's going to take 9-9 in the conference to feel good about our NCAA tournament chances. 8-10 in B1G play and a win in the conference tournament might be enough to put us on the bubble and make things interesting on Selection Sunday. (This is all assuming that we finish 12-1 in nonconference play.)
 

18 wins wouldn't even get us into the NIT. Look at Northwestern last year. Similar nonconf schedule to what we have this year. They went 12-1 in nonconf, 8-10 in B1G play, lost in the first round of the conference tournament (in a somewhat controversial finish IIRC) and they didn't even make the NIT. It's going to take 9-9 in the conference to feel good about our NCAA tournament chances. 8-10 in B1G play and a win in the conference tournament might be enough to put us on the bubble and make things interesting on Selection Sunday. (This is all assuming that we finish 12-1 in nonconference play.)

Most years 18 wins gets you in the NIT. I believe last season saw a higher than normal automatic qualifiers for the NIT, which reduced the number of at large spots.
 



Most years 18 wins gets you in the NIT. I believe last season saw a higher than normal automatic qualifiers for the NIT, which reduced the number of at large spots.

Might be the case (I don't really pay attention to the NIT bubble), but the fact that NW didn't make it with that resume remains true. They beat three major conference teams in nonconf play. Only loss was to UNC on a neutral court. Either way, the goal is not to make the NIT. It's to make the tournament that matters
 

Any of these next five games that we Gopher fans should be more concerned about or are all five high probability wins?
 

I predicted 8-10 before the season and I still think that's a good bet.
 

Any of these next five games that we Gopher fans should be more concerned about or are all five high probability wins?

I think Arkansas State is around 150 in kenpom and beat Georgetown. Northern Illinois is around 170. They could pose a bit of a challenge, but I think every game from here until Michigan State is a 'should win.' Hell we might even be favored at home against the Spartans with their injury and size issues.
 






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