Ranking our 2009 Schedule

I've been following the Gophers since 1986 and this may be the most difficult schedule I have ever seen coming into a season. Are there games we have no shot of winning? Which teams should we crush? I don't see any games on the schedule that are out of the question. We return more starters than any other team we play, and most of the bigten will be worse than last year. Here is how I ranked our games from hardest to easiest:

1) 10/17 @ Penn St. I know Penn St. lost every experienced wide receiver and has some huge shoes to fill on the D line, but with Clark and Royster returning I figure they will be very tough to beat in Happy Valley.
2) 11/21 @ Iowa. Last years high in Iowa City on November 21st was 27 degrees. I don't think that bodes well for the Gophers if it ends up being a running contest. Our last win in Iowa City was 1999 and before that it was 1989, so maybe this an unstoppable trend...watch out Hawkeye's.
3) 10/24 @ Ohio St. The Buckeye's lose a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball and Terrell Pryor is no longer surrounded by the services of Wells, Robiskie, or Hartline. As Always Ohio St. will reload but this huge loss of experience gives me a glimmer of hope that we can pull off an upset in Columbus.
4) 9/19 Cal We won't have to wait long to see what kind of home field advantage the Gophers will enjoy at TCF Bank Stadium. By all accounts this is a very athletic team. Should be a fun one to watch.
5) 11/7 Illinois The Illini had sort of a hiccup last year following their run to the Rose Bowl in 2007. I expect to 2009 version of the Illini to look more like the 2007 team. They have a bunch of experienced play makers on offense that will give our D headaches. We should take solace in the fact that Juice Williams returns for one more season.
6) 10/31 Mich St. Dantonio has Mich St. headed in the right direction but I'm not as sold on the 2009 version of the Spartans as some. Losing your QB and star RB is huge imo. This is a game a more experienced Minnesota team needs to win at home.
7) 10/3 Bielema has things headed in the wrong direction at Madtown. Still, they are no pushovers and have beaten us 5 straight. Let's hope it's a new era in TCF versus our rivals!
8) 9/12 Airforce What a great occasion this will be. Please no let down Gophers!
9) 9/26 @ NW I'm beginning to really hate this team. I think we will have our revenge in Evanston this year. NW brings back a solid defense but is not looking so bright on offense. I don't see the Gophers allowing Kafka to run at will like he did last year. Tackle Kafka and we beat NW.
10) 10/10 Purdue The Boilermakers we're bad in 2008 and should be even worse in 2009. Danny Hope has his work cut out this year with little talent to work with, Gophers should roll in this one.
11) 9/5 Syracuse The season begins in New York against a brutally bad opponent. New head coach Doug Marrone can't be looking forward to the painful season that is about to unfold. The Gophers should win going away.
12) 11/14 SDSU I'd like to think we have stopped losing to teams from the Dakota's.

I think most people will see our schedule to be pretty close to what you have. Personally, where I see the difficulty of our schedule is a little different:

1. OSU
2. PSU
3. Cal
4. MSU
5. Northwestern
6. Iowa
7. Illinois
8. Wisconsin
9. Air Force
10. Syracuse
11. Purdue
12. SDSU

I think Northwestern and MSU are both top-4 teams in the conference this year, and are both going to be real challeneges for us. After OSU and PSU and those two, it's going to be interesting to see who falls where between 5th and 8th. 9th, 10th, and 11th look to be pretty much set, and it's disappointing that we only play Purdue from that group.

On my list, I feel like anything from #9 on up could be a loss but anything from #3 on down could be a win. In my difficulty ranking I have also tried to take game location into consideration in terms of how tough the game will be to win.

1. OSU
2. PSU
3. Cal
4. Iowa
5. Ill
6. MSU
7. Wisconsin
8. Northwestern
9. Air Force
10. Syracuse
11. Purdue
12. SDSU

Of these lists I agree with Schnauzer's but I would swap NU & Wisconsin due to location.

I think people are forgetting how many all conference OL (3) PSU lost. IMO running back is the most overrated position because and most people undervalue the OL. I would be willing to bet that despite returning their starting QB & RB, PSU will average less yards rushing and passing this year than they did last year. That is why I would rank them behind OSU.

I think people are forgetting how many all conference OL (3) PSU lost. IMO running back is the most overrated position because and most people undervalue the OL. I would be willing to bet that despite returning their starting QB & RB, PSU will average less yards rushing and passing this year than they did last year. That is why I would rank them behind OSU

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That's a good point, I didn't know that they only returned two on the O-Line. In that case I might move Iowa to our most difficult game. I know many will laugh at that notion, but remember this is a team that will have one of the best O lines in college football. If Hampton can be an above average runner, watch out! They lost four games last year by margins of 5-3-3-1. 12 points away from running the table. No one seems to remember that.
I do think that people are way too high on NW, mainly because they lost all meaningful play makers on offense and very little coming in. Michigan St should be good on offense but this is a defense that gave up 38 to Cal, 49 to Penn St., and 45 to Ohio St. They are going to need to score a ton to win the bigten this year.

JPIIGopher said:

That's a good point, I didn't know that they only returned two on the O-Line. In that case I might move Iowa to our most difficult game. I know many will laugh at that notion, but remember this is a team that will have one of the best O lines in college football. If Hampton can be an above average runner, watch out! They lost four games last year by margins of 5-3-3-1. 12 points away from running the table. No one seems to remember that.
I do think that people are way too high on NW, mainly because they lost all meaningful play makers on offense and very little coming in. Michigan St should be good on offense but this is a defense that gave up 38 to Cal, 49 to Penn St., and 45 to Ohio St. They are going to need to score a ton to win the bigten this year.

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I realize what NU lost but we already know that Kafka is a capable QB (IMO more dangerous than Bacher). Losing Sutton hurts but he was injured for the last 4 games of 2008 and if my memory serves me correctly they went 3-1 down the stretch. They return most of their D including Wootton (coming off knee injury in bowl game) and I believe their entire secondary which was very good. Considering how they dealt with losing key players last year I see no reason to bet against them this year. I don't see them as a top 4 team but they'll probably be a 6-7 win team.