Tell me what you think...

I'm a sports writer for a paper up north. I would love some feedback on my latest column possibility:

Adam Weber is one of the top three quarterbacks in the Big Ten, Eric Decker is an All-American receiver, Duane Bennett is a dangerous double-threat running back and Hayo Carpenter is a five-star talent at out wide.
The offensive line is massive, led by Notre Dame transfer Matt Carufel (6-3, 320) and juco transplant Jeff Wills (6-3, 370).
The defense is strongest in the back with former Wisconsin safety Kim Royston leading the way.
The linebackers are spearheaded by emerging star Simoni Lawrence while the D-Line has the ability to stuff the run.
So why does everyone have the Minnesota Gophers picked to finish in the bottom third of the Big Ten?
It’s pretty simple, really.
Scheduling.
Outside of home goes against Purdue and South Dakota State, there is no slam-dunk, sure-fire victories on the slate.
Not only do the Gophers have to play Penn State and Ohio State on the road in back-to-back weeks, but the nonconference schedule also features home games against Cal and Air Force as well as a trip to Syracuse to open the season.
And Michigan and Indiana, the two teams picked to finish directly above and below Minnesota in the standings, respectively, aren’t even on the schedule.
Let’s put it this way: All but three of the teams the Gophers play had a winning record last season.
But to truly grasp what Minnesota is up against; let’s walk through every game and breakdown the matchups.
Sept. 5: at Syracuse
Probably going to be a victory, but it’s the first game of the season, and anything can happen.
Sept. 12: Air Force
Believe me, the Falcons do not care that Minnesota is opening a brand new, on-campus stadium this week. This one’s a complete toss-up.
Sept. 19: California
Tim Brewster vowed to make the nonconference schedule tougher. Well, here it is. Cal is a consensus top 10 team. Gophers should get humbled at home.
Sept. 26: at Northwestern
Great, the first conference game is on the road against an emerging team. The Wildcats, however, might be a little overrated. This could be a steal on the road.
Oct. 3: Wisconsin
Badgers have owned the Gophers in recent years, no matter where the site. Wisconsin has a stable of running backs that will wear down the Gophers up front.
Oct. 10: Purdue
Boilers are in transition and Minnesota has confidence against them after last season’s victory.
Oct. 17: at Penn State
This is where the gauntlet begins. Penn State could go unbeaten. Gophers will struggle to offer much resistance.
Oct. 24: at Ohio State
It’s almost not fair to be forced to travel to Columbus after a trip to Penn State.
Oct. 31: Michigan State
No rest for the weary. Michigan State is picked to finish in top four of the Big 10. Minnesota should put up a good fight, but State is just too talented on defense.
Nov. 7: Illinois
This could be a potential upset victory for Minnesota. After beating Illinois last season, the Gophers could make it two in a row by exploiting the Illini’s suspect secondary with their strong receiving corps.
Nov. 14: South Dakota State
Jackrabbits are solid FCS team, but Minnesota has too much talent to lose at home.
Nov. 21: at Iowa
Hawkeyes are tough and rugged on both sides. Not to mention that thrive at Kinnick Stadium.

What do I think?

Its a waste of time to try and predict how the season will go for a team like the Gophers. There are too many variables and unknowns that could greatly skew even the best analysis.

The key to success of this team is the development of the OL, keeping its best players healthy and putting better talent on the field. The latter will best happen IF some of Brewsters heralded recruits are good enough to replace some incumbents. Right now that is an unknown. I amy be wrong but having a large number of veterans back that gave up 37 ppg and put up just 15 ppg in the last five games is not worth getting excited about. And many of them will be Sr's. Brewsters recruits need to make an impact.

The OL is a new bunch that lacks CFB experience backed by players who were the main factor in our feeble offense last season. The depth will be better but I am not convinced the talent level in the two deep is that good. Add in a new OC who has never put together one CFB game plan let alone call a play.

Once again the team lacks big time players. Right now Decker is the only likely pick for all conference or greater honors. Lawrence and maybe Simmons could be next and possibly Weber if the OL shows up. Weber can not carry this team.

There could be a 4 or 5 game swing with this team with as few as 3 or 4 wins or as many as 7 or 8. There are just way to many ? marks at this time. The first three games will tell us a lot.

Bayfieldgopher said:

What do I think?

Its a waste of time to try and predict how the season will go for a team like the Gophers. There are too many variables and unknowns that could greatly skew even the best analysis.

The key to success of this team is the development of the OL, keeping its best players healthy and putting better talent on the field. The latter will best happen IF some of Brewsters heralded recruits are good enough to replace some incumbents. Right now that is an unknown. I amy be wrong but having a large number of veterans back that gave up 37 ppg and put up just 15 ppg in the last five games is not worth getting excited about. And many of them will be Sr's. Brewsters recruits need to make an impact.

The OL is a new bunch that lacks CFB experience backed by players who were the main factor in our feeble offense last season. The depth will be better but I am not convinced the talent level in the two deep is that good. Add in a new OC who has never put together one CFB game plan let alone call a play.

Once again the team lacks big time players. Right now Decker is the only likely pick for all conference or greater honors. Lawrence and maybe Simmons could be next and possibly Weber if the OL shows up. Weber can not carry this team.

There could be a 4 or 5 game swing with this team with as few as 3 or 4 wins or as many as 7 or 8. There are just way to many ? marks at this time. The first three games will tell us a lot.

Click to expand...

Well put. I think this assessment is right on. Anything more than 7 wins, or less than 3 wins would surprise me.

To me it seems like your predictions are based on the team that finished the season 0-5 as opposed to the team that started the season 7-1.

I think it's really tough to figure out what the Gophers will look like this year. The only games I'd consider almost out of reach are PSU and tOSU. On the flip side, I only see Syracuse, SDSU, and Purdue as almost complete lock victories (though Air Force should be and losing the first game at TCF would be horrible).

I'd be careful mentioning Willis as a starter on the new Oline as it seems like there's a mixed opinion on him. I'd also lead my evaluation of the secondray with Simmons and Sherels rather than Royston who has not played yet.

If Adam Weber is a top 3 Big Ten QB, I'd think we'd win more games than you seem to suggest.

If Adam Weber is a top 3 Big Ten QB, I'd think we'd win more games than you seem to suggest.
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Many including the BT coaches, who named him second team QB, had Weber ranked a top 3 BT QB in 2008 and it got us 3 BT wins. Like I said, Weber is not capable of carrying this team. We need a top 3 rated OL to make some noise.

I believe its more important about how you finish than how you start. November is not for pretenders but for contenders. The Gophers weak points were badly exposed at seasons end.

We are building on the team that finished the season badly and go from there.

Weis: I thought it was a solid write-up, just so you know. While it's definitely tough to predict where a season will go, it's your job as a sports-writer to try. As such, you've gotta throw something out there, and I thought your summation was as good as any I've seen this year. The Gophers are a very talented team with many strengths (as you pointed out at the beginning of your article), but they're definitely facing an uphill battle in terms of getting to 8 wins.

Weisbrod said:

Sept. 19: California
Tim Brewster vowed to make the nonconference schedule tougher. Well, here it is. Cal is a consensus top 10 team. Gophers should get humbled at home.

Click to expand...

Just a little fact-checking before you go to print...

Brewster had nothing to do with scheduling Cal. This was the one legit BCS program Mason put on the schedule during his tenure - you might remember the Gophers getting whipped in Berkeley in 2006, his final season.

I thought there was another kid in the defensive back that is leading the way, with Royston being a nice addition. But it's nice to see Kim's name there anyway.

EG#9 said:

To me it seems like your predictions are based on the team that finished the season 0-5 as opposed to the team that started the season 7-1.

I think it's really tough to figure out what the Gophers will look like this year. The only games I'd consider almost out of reach are PSU and tOSU. On the flip side, I only see Syracuse, SDSU, and Purdue as almost complete lock victories (though Air Force should be and losing the first game at TCF would be horrible).

I'd be careful mentioning Willis as a starter on the new Oline as it seems like there's a mixed opinion on him. I'd also lead my evaluation of the secondray with Simmons and Sherels rather than Royston who has not played yet.

If Adam Weber is a top 3 Big Ten QB, I'd think we'd win more games than you seem to suggest.

Click to expand...

Thanks for the input

Bayfieldgopher said:

If Adam Weber is a top 3 Big Ten QB, I'd think we'd win more games than you seem to suggest.
*******************
Many including the BT coaches, who named him second team QB, had Weber ranked a top 3 BT QB in 2008 and it got us 3 BT wins. Like I said, Weber is not capable of carrying this team. We need a top 3 rated OL to make some noise.

I believe its more important about how you finish than how you start. November is not for pretenders but for contenders. The Gophers weak points were badly exposed at seasons end.

We are building on the team that finished the season badly and go from there.

Click to expand...

Losing Decker for essentially the season against Northwestern might have had something to do with that? We never had our best player healthy again all season.

Bayfieldgopher said:

What do I think?

Its a waste of time to try and predict how the season will go for a team like the Gophers. There are too many variables and unknowns that could greatly skew even the best analysis.

The key to success of this team is the development of the OL, keeping its best players healthy and putting better talent on the field. The latter will best happen IF some of Brewsters heralded recruits are good enough to replace some incumbents. Right now that is an unknown. I amy be wrong but having a large number of veterans back that gave up 37 ppg and put up just 15 ppg in the last five games is not worth getting excited about. And many of them will be Sr's. Brewsters recruits need to make an impact.

The OL is a new bunch that lacks CFB experience backed by players who were the main factor in our feeble offense last season. The depth will be better but I am not convinced the talent level in the two deep is that good. Add in a new OC who has never put together one CFB game plan let alone call a play.

Once again the team lacks big time players. Right now Decker is the only likely pick for all conference or greater honors. Lawrence and maybe Simmons could be next and possibly Weber if the OL shows up. Weber can not carry this team.

There could be a 4 or 5 game swing with this team with as few as 3 or 4 wins or as many as 7 or 8. There are just way to many ? marks at this time. The first three games will tell us a lot.

Click to expand...

Well...I wouldn't say it's a “waste of time.” It's more fun than anything else. The whole point isn't to prove that I can see into the future, it's to express what things look like at this very moment from an outsider's view. Of course there are going to be unpredictable variables; that's what makes this whole thing so enjoyable. The point of the column was to express how much of an uphill climb this team has to succeed in the Big Ten, that's all.
Thanks for your input, I appreciate it!

Weisbrod
Thanks for your views. Stop by more often as this site can always use fresh input to comment on.

One of the biggest things I don't like about the scheduling is that there is no bye week whatsoever. Having the ability to regroup for a week is huge IMO.

Decker wasn't an All-American, was he? If not, you should probably say "All-America caliber", or something to that effect.

I have no real problems with Weisbrod's analysis. However, I do not think that Purdue is a slam dunk, and I think that we have a good chance vs. Illinois and a fair shot to win vs. Penn State. Go Gophers!

PlayHosea said:

Decker wasn't an All-American, was he? If not, you should probably say "All-America caliber", or something to that effect.

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Yep, he was first team All-American for the first half of the season and honorable mention at the end of the season. Click HERE for player bio

Massive doesn't equal good always...too many questions surrounding Wills...Carufel though is nasty...we have no idea yet on Hayo...I am a backer of Bennett's and think he is their best option at RB, but skeptics say it takes 2 years to recover from an ACL tear...question marks also at safety...who starts opposite Royston?...and how good will Kim be considering it's been a long time since he played in a game?

Doogie said:

Massive doesn't equal good always...too many questions surrounding Wills...Carufel though is nasty...we have no idea yet on Hayo...I am a backer of Bennett's and think he is their best option at RB, but skeptics say it takes 2 years to recover from an ACL tear...question marks also at safety...who starts opposite Royston?...and how good will Kim be considering it's been a long time since he played in a game?

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Am I the only one who thinks Theret is a solid safety, don't get me wrong, he's no Ed Reed, but he's at least a quality Big Ten starter, I think his run defense is above average to very good. Pass coverage and speed are definitely not elite, but I would think he's made enough plays to warrant acknolegement as a returning starter.

Will say this on Theret: He works as hard as anyone in the weight room...he is strong (weighs 190ish, can bench 310ish)...and goes about getting better as much as anyone on the team.

Ole said:

Am I the only one who thinks Theret is a solid safety, don't get me wrong, he's no Ed Reed, but he's at least a quality Big Ten starter, I think his run defense is above average to very good. Pass coverage and speed are definitely not elite, but I would think he's made enough plays to warrant acknowledgment as a returning starter.

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A couple people around here know I am high on him starting for us. He has a great football iq, and was recognized for his efforts last year with a Big Ten Honorable Mention. Assuming Roysten can equal Brock, then Theret will once again be able to play to his strengths and be talked about for awards at the end of the year, imo.

Weisbrod said:

I'm a sports writer for a paper up north. I would love some feedback on my latest column possibility:

Click to expand...

Here you go Weisbrod. You claim in the recent thread "Our Commits: No other offers... no problem?" that you are NOT a media member, yet back in your early days on GH you started this thread asking for input on a column you were going to write.

Can you clarify this for everyone??? Are you just another media member lurking GH spewing his negative agenda?

Thanks Bud

Switch Illinois and the MSU game and he pretty much predicted our season in 2009.