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Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers' 2015-16 Peer Group Includes Cornhuskers, Huskies
By Selection Sunday
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/568318?referrer_id=
WAIT 'TIL NEXT YEAR, MINN. -- Greetings, gentle readers, and welcome to another year on the Road to Selection Sunday. As I finally warm up to the 2015-16 Gopher basketball season, I do so with no visions of grandeur. For the first time since Tubby Smith's 1st season as Gopher head coach (2007-08), I have zero expectation that the Gophers' season will conclude in the NCAA Tournament.
And you know what? That's OK. After last season's senior-laden U of M squad fell disappointingly short of the NCAA tourney -- or even the opportunity to defend its NIT championship -- Gopher fans probably are ready to see some new blood wearing the maroon & gold. Third-year head coach Richard Pitino's Gophers will have a fresh new look when they open the season Nov. 13 vs. Kansas City (UMKC) at Williams Arena. Pitino welcomes a versatile and heralded class (by Minnesota standards) highlighted by guards Kevin Dorsey (Waldorf, Md.), Ahmad Gilbert (Philadelphia), and Dupree McBrayer (Queens, N.Y.), and forward Jordan Murphy (San Antonio, Tex.).
This season is all about player development and seeing legitimate hope for the program's future. Sure, I'd like to see the Gophers win the Puerto Rico Tip-Off (or at least win 2 games there), yes, I'd love to see the Gophers knock off a Michigan State, a Wisconsin, a Maryland or an Indiana, and absolutely I'd be thrilled and beyond surprised if there's hope on Selection Sunday. But mostly what I want is a reason to be excited for 2016-17, to see at least two or three of the above-mentioned freshmen show they have future star, All-B1G potential. Think a young Willie Burton, an electric, high-flying Sam Jacobson, a potential late-game stone-cold killer like Bobby Jackson, or a slashing & smiling Vincent Grier.
With the Gophers expected to finish in the bottom four of the 14-team B1G (most preseason projections have the Gophers finishing 11th or 12th), RTSS is trying a different preseason approach as college basketball's Opening Night (Nov. 13) draws near. Yes, we will always monitor the Gophers' peers in the B1G Conference, but this season from start to finish we're going to keep tabs on 6 teams who figure to be in the Gophers' immediate peer group, one from each of the Power 6 conferences: ACC, Big East, B1G, Big XII, Pac 12, and SEC.
Ladies and gentlemen I introduce you to Power 6 programs whose seasons are likely to resemble that of the Gophers. Picked at or near the bottom of their respective conferences, with no realistic expectations of a NCAA berth, I give you Alabama (SEC), Creighton (Big East), Georgia Tech (ACC), Kansas State (Big XII), Nebraska (B1G), and Washington (Pac 12). Is there an out-of-the blue NCAA qualifier in this group of low-expectation teams? Let's take an informal snapshot look at their schedules, starting with the Gophers.
GOPHERS
The U has a 30-game regular season, with a home/road/neutral game split of 17/9/4. The non-conference schedule is decent, but in order for it to be above average it will require the Gophers beat Temple in the quarterfinals of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. Do that and they'll likely see a solid combination of Butler, Miami-Florida, and/or Utah on the winner's side of the bracket. Lose to Temple, and the loser's bracket won't do much to move the needle. Missouri State and Mississippi State might await, but I think Gopher fans might be more intrigued if there's a matchup vs. Tubby's Texas Tech Red Raiders?
The rest of the Gophers' non-conference schedule is bland, save for their Nov. 30 ACC Challenge game vs. Clemson and a Dec. 12 neutral-siter in Sioux Falls vs. Oklahoma State. With the Gophers playing no true road games prior to the conference season, it begs the question, why didn't Pitino just schedule a home-and-home with the Cowboys, starting this season in Stillwater? Kills two birds with one stone. Tests a young team in a true road game prior to the B1G meat-grinder, and at the same time you get a quality home-and-home series, with the promise of a noteworthy non-league home opponent for season-ticket holders in in 2016-17. Novel idea, isn't it?
That said, no complaints whatsoever here about the Gophers' conference home schedule. The Gophers get nearly all of the B1G's big boys at The Barn, with the exceptions of Iowa and Ohio State, though both the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes project to finish in the middle of the pack. A home slate that includes Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, and Wisconsin? Yes, I'll take that.
RTSS Projected B1G Finish: 13th of 14
Average RPI of Non-Conference Opponents: 175.9
Average RPI of All Opponents: 115.642
Power 6 Non-Conference Opponents (2): Clemson, Oklahoma State
Top-75 Non-Conference Opponents (2): Oklahoma State, Temple
RTSS Projected NCAA Qualifiers (10): Indiana (2), Iowa, Louisiana-Monroe, Maryland, Michigan (2), Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Toughest Non-Conference Game: vs. Temple (Nov. 19)
Toughest Game: @ Indiana (Jan. 30)
Non-Conference Upset Alert: Louisiana-Monroe (Nov. 15)
ALABAMA
Under first-year head coach Avery Johnson, the Crimson Tide will play the fewest home games (14), three fewer than the other 6 teams in our peer group. The non-conference home slate is weak with no Power 6 opponents, but road games @ Dayton (Nov. 17) and Clemson (Dec. 13) and a pair of neutral-site tilts vs. Xavier (Nov. 26) and Oregon (Dec. 21) will tell us a lot about the Tide. The SEC schedule offers the Tide two cracks at Kentucky, Jan. 9 in Tuscaloosa and Feb. 23 in Lexington.
Home/Road/Neutral Split: 14/12/4
RTSS Projected SEC Finish: 12th of 14
Average RPI of Non-Conference Opponents: 161.3
Average RPI of All Opponents: 116.928
Power 6 Non-Conference Opponents (3): Clemson, Oregon, Xavier
Top-75 Non-Conference Opponents (3): Dayton, Oregon, Xavier
RTSS Projected NCAA Qualifiers (10): Dayton, Florida, Kentucky (2), LSU (2), Oregon, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Xavier
Toughest Non-Conference Game: @ Dayton (Nov. 17)
Toughest Game: @ Kentucky (Feb. 23)
Non-Conference Upset Alert: Louisiana (Nov. 20)
CREIGHTON
Along with their in-state rival Nebraska, the Jays will play 13 games vs. teams projected by RTSS to make the NCAA tourney field. And other than Washington, which plays Texas in China on Opening Night (Nov. 13), Greg McDermott's squad figures to have the trickiest season opener of the other peer teams. They'll host Mike Davis' Texas Southern squad on Nov. 14. TSU is the prohibitive SWAC favorite, and is coming off a season where it won at Michigan State, and later qualified for its second consecutive NCAA tourney.
The Jays' Big East season starts with a bang. They'll host conference favorite Villanova on Jan. 2, followed by another game at Century Link Center vs. Georgetown on Jan. 5. The Hoyas figure to be one of Nova's primary challengers. Split that pair and Creighton fans should be feeling pretty good.
Home/Road/Neutral Split: 17/12/2
RTSS Projected Big East Finish: 7th of 10
Average RPI of Non-Conference Opponents: 176.5
Average RPI of All Opponents: 110.266
Power 6 Non-Conference Opponents (5): Arizona State, Indiana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Rutgers
Top-75 Non-Conference Opponents (2): Indiana, Oklahoma
RTSS Projected NCAA Qualifiers (13): Butler (2), Georgetown (2), Indiana, Oklahoma, Providence (2), Texas Southern, Villanova (2), Xavier (2)
Toughest Non-Conference Game: @ Oklahoma (Dec. 19)
Toughest Game: @ Villanova (Feb. 3)
Non-Conference Upset Alert: @ Loyola-Chicago (Dec. 5)
GEORGIA TECH
It's a big year for Jackets coach Brian Gregory, as the coach from the Tom Izzo tree hasn't gotten much done in Atlanta. It won't be easy to gain more traction in the ACC, which figures to battle the B1G neck and neck for the title of best hoops conference. Tech appears to have the toughest non-conference and overall schedule in the 7-team peer group, so there should be ample opportunities for a program-changing win or two. But if there are none of those, Gregory could be gone at season's end.
Home/Road/Neutral Split: 18/11/2
RTSS Projected ACC Finish: 12th of 15
Average RPI of Non-Conference Opponents: 137.416
Average RPI of All Opponents: 97.9
Power 6 Non-Conference Opponents (3): Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee
Top-75 Non-Conference Opponents (5): Arkansas, Georgia, Green Bay, VCU, Wofford
RTSS Projected NCAA Qualifiers (9): Duke, Louisville (2), Miami-Florida, North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame (2), Virginia
Toughest Non-Conference Game: @ Georgia (Dec. 19)
Toughest Game: @ North Carolina (Jan. 2)
Non-Conference Upset Alert: Wofford (Dec. 1)
KANSAS STATE
Poor Bruce Weber. It could get really ugly in Manhattan after a promising start to his K-State tenure. Weber has scheduled accordingly. The Wildcats have 4 Power 6 opponents on their non-conference schedule, however, all but one of those (@ Texas A&M) figure to be winnable games. If nothing else, we might find out how K-State would stack up as a member of the SEC, as all 4 of the Power 6 opponents hail from ESPN's favorite football conference. The first of those comes Nov. 23 vs. Missouri. Beat their former Big XII brethren Tigers and the Wildcats are likely to see national title contender (and African American Studies specialists) North Carolina the next night.
Home/Road/Neutral Split: 17/11/3
RTSS Projected Big XII Finish: 9th of 10
Average RPI of Non-Conference Opponents: 185.75
Average RPI of All Opponents: 105.633
Power 6 Non-Conference Opponents (4): Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Top-75 Non-Conference Opponents (4): Colorado State, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
RTSS Projected NCAA Qualifiers (12): Baylor (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas (2), Oklahoma (2), Texas A&M, UMES, West Virginia (2)
Toughest Non-Conference Game: @ Texas A&M (Dec. 12)
Toughest Game: @ Kansas (Feb. 3)
Non-Conference Upset Alert: Columbia (Nov. 16)
NEBRASKA
Which season is more reflective of the path charismatic Tim Miles' program is headed? The 2013-14 season when the Cornhuskers came out of nowhere to earn a NCAA berth, or the 2014-15 high-expectation but crash-and-burned campaign? We should get an answer this season, when the 'Huskers go back to a more comfortable role of being the hunter instead of the hunted (not that Nebraska is ever really the hunted in hoops).
The Cornhuskers' non-conference schedule is deceptively good, despite ranking 69th of 75 among Power 6 teams in terms of average RPI of opponents (just a shade under 200). Yes, they play 5 opponents who finished 2014-15 with RPIs south of 300, but they more than make up for it with a solid slate of Power 6 and top-75 type foes. Included is a Nov. 17 date @ Villanova as part of the B1G/Big East Dave Gavitt Games. Still scratching my head about that one. ... couldn't the conferences work out a better pairing for Villanova? That matchup makes no sense.
Home/Road/Neutral Split: 18/11/2
RTSS Projected B1G Finish: 12th of 14
Average RPI of Non-Conference Opponents: 199.333
Average RPI of All Opponents: 127.366
Power 6 Non-Conference Opponents (3): Creighton, Miami-Florida, Villanova
Top-75 Non-Conference Opponents (4): Cincinnati, Miami-Florida, Rhode Island, Villanova
RTSS Projected NCAA Qualifiers (13): Cincinnati, Indiana (2), Iowa, Maryland, Miami-Florida, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue (2), Rhode
Island, Villanova, Wisconsin
Toughest Non-Conference Game: @ Villanova (Nov. 17)
Toughest Game: @ Michigan State (Jan. 20)
Non-Conference Upset Alert: Southeastern Louisiana (Nov. 22)
WASHINGTON
We finish with Lorenzo Romar's Huskies, whose schedule I think is most similar to the Gophers. Exactly like the Gophers, U-Dub will play 17 home games, 9 road games, and 4 neutral-site games. Like the U, none of those 9 road games will take place before the start of the conference season. I just can't comprehend why any Power 6 program would choose to play no true road games before its conference season.
The Huskies, again, like the Gophers, will play one Power 6 opponent at home during non-conference play, two overall vs. the Power 6, and two vs. top-75 opponents. The main difference is the Huskies far & away have a higher-end opponent, as they open with Gonzaga at the Thanksgiving feast Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas.
Home/Road/Neutral Split: 17/9/4
RTSS Projected Pac 12 Finish: 10th of 12
Average RPI of Non-Conference Opponents: 161.2
Average RPI of All Opponents: 116.428
Power 6 Non-Conference Opponents (2): Texas, TCU
Top-75 Non-Conference Opponents (2): Gonzaga, Texas
RTSS Projected NCAA Qualifiers (10): Arizona (2), Cal, Gonzaga, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA (2), Utah (2)
Toughest Non-Conference Game: vs. Gonzaga (Nov. 25)
Toughest Game: @ Arizona (Jan. 14)
Non-Conference Upset Alert: UCSB (Dec. 28)
Best to Worst
The Best (based on average RPI of opponents) Non-Conference Schedules from the Power 6 Conferences -- ACC (Duke, 105.916), Big East (Providence, 139.9), B1G (Maryland, 153.666), Big XII (Texas Tech, 132.3), Pac 12 (Stanford, 122), SEC (Vanderbilt, 101.727)
The Middlin' Non-Conference Schedules from the Power 6 Conferences -- ACC (Pitt, 172.307), Big East (Seton Hall, 172.9), B1G (Gophers, 175.9), Big XII (Texas, 148.181), Pac 12 (Washington, 161.2), SEC (Missouri, 157.083)
The Worst Non-Conference Schedules from the Power 6 Conferences -- ACC (Virginia Tech, 212.416), Big East (Marquette, 233.25), B1G (Northwestern, 250.416), Big XII (West Virginia, 196.416), Pac 12 (Utah, 183.818), SEC (LSU, 193.666)
Northwestern & Selection Sunday
If the Wildcats are squarely on the bubble on Selection Sunday, expect their non-conference schedule to keep them out. It's atrocious, save for a game @ DePaul and a neutral-site meeting with North Carolina. Then again, if the Wildcats are even in the conversation, it'll be heady times in Evanston.
Gophers Would Do Well To Finish .500
I'm feeling 9-3 in the non-conference for the Gophers, 5-13 in the B1G, and 1-1 @ the B1G Tournament. If Bert Blyleven's California math is correct, that's a 15-17 campaign for the men in maroon & gold (or black & gray if Marlene Stollings is in charge of the men's uniforms, too).
1st of Many B1G Picks, Preseason Style
1. Michigan State, 2. Maryland, 3. Michigan, 4. Indiana, 5. Iowa, 6. Wisconsin, 7. Purdue, 8. Ohio State, 9. Illinois, 10. Northwestern, 11. Penn State, 12. Nebraska, 13. Gophers, 14. Rutgers. ... The first 7 make the NCAA Tournament, OSU, Illinois, and maybe Northwestern head to the NIT.
Last But Not Least, A Stab At The Sweet 16 (Great Year for the Vs)
Cal, Dayton, Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Valparaiso, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Wichita State
A Special RTSS Shout-Out
To my favorite Jayhawks fan, who earlier this year decided it was a good idea to walk down the aisle with a college basketball/"sportsing" life-time bachelor. Rock Chalk KU, JBear, "may the force be with you" and your Jayhawks, except for those rare instances when our teams meet on the hardwood.
By Selection Sunday
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/568318?referrer_id=
WAIT 'TIL NEXT YEAR, MINN. -- Greetings, gentle readers, and welcome to another year on the Road to Selection Sunday. As I finally warm up to the 2015-16 Gopher basketball season, I do so with no visions of grandeur. For the first time since Tubby Smith's 1st season as Gopher head coach (2007-08), I have zero expectation that the Gophers' season will conclude in the NCAA Tournament.
And you know what? That's OK. After last season's senior-laden U of M squad fell disappointingly short of the NCAA tourney -- or even the opportunity to defend its NIT championship -- Gopher fans probably are ready to see some new blood wearing the maroon & gold. Third-year head coach Richard Pitino's Gophers will have a fresh new look when they open the season Nov. 13 vs. Kansas City (UMKC) at Williams Arena. Pitino welcomes a versatile and heralded class (by Minnesota standards) highlighted by guards Kevin Dorsey (Waldorf, Md.), Ahmad Gilbert (Philadelphia), and Dupree McBrayer (Queens, N.Y.), and forward Jordan Murphy (San Antonio, Tex.).
This season is all about player development and seeing legitimate hope for the program's future. Sure, I'd like to see the Gophers win the Puerto Rico Tip-Off (or at least win 2 games there), yes, I'd love to see the Gophers knock off a Michigan State, a Wisconsin, a Maryland or an Indiana, and absolutely I'd be thrilled and beyond surprised if there's hope on Selection Sunday. But mostly what I want is a reason to be excited for 2016-17, to see at least two or three of the above-mentioned freshmen show they have future star, All-B1G potential. Think a young Willie Burton, an electric, high-flying Sam Jacobson, a potential late-game stone-cold killer like Bobby Jackson, or a slashing & smiling Vincent Grier.
With the Gophers expected to finish in the bottom four of the 14-team B1G (most preseason projections have the Gophers finishing 11th or 12th), RTSS is trying a different preseason approach as college basketball's Opening Night (Nov. 13) draws near. Yes, we will always monitor the Gophers' peers in the B1G Conference, but this season from start to finish we're going to keep tabs on 6 teams who figure to be in the Gophers' immediate peer group, one from each of the Power 6 conferences: ACC, Big East, B1G, Big XII, Pac 12, and SEC.
Ladies and gentlemen I introduce you to Power 6 programs whose seasons are likely to resemble that of the Gophers. Picked at or near the bottom of their respective conferences, with no realistic expectations of a NCAA berth, I give you Alabama (SEC), Creighton (Big East), Georgia Tech (ACC), Kansas State (Big XII), Nebraska (B1G), and Washington (Pac 12). Is there an out-of-the blue NCAA qualifier in this group of low-expectation teams? Let's take an informal snapshot look at their schedules, starting with the Gophers.
GOPHERS
The U has a 30-game regular season, with a home/road/neutral game split of 17/9/4. The non-conference schedule is decent, but in order for it to be above average it will require the Gophers beat Temple in the quarterfinals of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. Do that and they'll likely see a solid combination of Butler, Miami-Florida, and/or Utah on the winner's side of the bracket. Lose to Temple, and the loser's bracket won't do much to move the needle. Missouri State and Mississippi State might await, but I think Gopher fans might be more intrigued if there's a matchup vs. Tubby's Texas Tech Red Raiders?
The rest of the Gophers' non-conference schedule is bland, save for their Nov. 30 ACC Challenge game vs. Clemson and a Dec. 12 neutral-siter in Sioux Falls vs. Oklahoma State. With the Gophers playing no true road games prior to the conference season, it begs the question, why didn't Pitino just schedule a home-and-home with the Cowboys, starting this season in Stillwater? Kills two birds with one stone. Tests a young team in a true road game prior to the B1G meat-grinder, and at the same time you get a quality home-and-home series, with the promise of a noteworthy non-league home opponent for season-ticket holders in in 2016-17. Novel idea, isn't it?
That said, no complaints whatsoever here about the Gophers' conference home schedule. The Gophers get nearly all of the B1G's big boys at The Barn, with the exceptions of Iowa and Ohio State, though both the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes project to finish in the middle of the pack. A home slate that includes Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, and Wisconsin? Yes, I'll take that.
RTSS Projected B1G Finish: 13th of 14
Average RPI of Non-Conference Opponents: 175.9
Average RPI of All Opponents: 115.642
Power 6 Non-Conference Opponents (2): Clemson, Oklahoma State
Top-75 Non-Conference Opponents (2): Oklahoma State, Temple
RTSS Projected NCAA Qualifiers (10): Indiana (2), Iowa, Louisiana-Monroe, Maryland, Michigan (2), Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Toughest Non-Conference Game: vs. Temple (Nov. 19)
Toughest Game: @ Indiana (Jan. 30)
Non-Conference Upset Alert: Louisiana-Monroe (Nov. 15)
ALABAMA
Under first-year head coach Avery Johnson, the Crimson Tide will play the fewest home games (14), three fewer than the other 6 teams in our peer group. The non-conference home slate is weak with no Power 6 opponents, but road games @ Dayton (Nov. 17) and Clemson (Dec. 13) and a pair of neutral-site tilts vs. Xavier (Nov. 26) and Oregon (Dec. 21) will tell us a lot about the Tide. The SEC schedule offers the Tide two cracks at Kentucky, Jan. 9 in Tuscaloosa and Feb. 23 in Lexington.
Home/Road/Neutral Split: 14/12/4
RTSS Projected SEC Finish: 12th of 14
Average RPI of Non-Conference Opponents: 161.3
Average RPI of All Opponents: 116.928
Power 6 Non-Conference Opponents (3): Clemson, Oregon, Xavier
Top-75 Non-Conference Opponents (3): Dayton, Oregon, Xavier
RTSS Projected NCAA Qualifiers (10): Dayton, Florida, Kentucky (2), LSU (2), Oregon, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Xavier
Toughest Non-Conference Game: @ Dayton (Nov. 17)
Toughest Game: @ Kentucky (Feb. 23)
Non-Conference Upset Alert: Louisiana (Nov. 20)
CREIGHTON
Along with their in-state rival Nebraska, the Jays will play 13 games vs. teams projected by RTSS to make the NCAA tourney field. And other than Washington, which plays Texas in China on Opening Night (Nov. 13), Greg McDermott's squad figures to have the trickiest season opener of the other peer teams. They'll host Mike Davis' Texas Southern squad on Nov. 14. TSU is the prohibitive SWAC favorite, and is coming off a season where it won at Michigan State, and later qualified for its second consecutive NCAA tourney.
The Jays' Big East season starts with a bang. They'll host conference favorite Villanova on Jan. 2, followed by another game at Century Link Center vs. Georgetown on Jan. 5. The Hoyas figure to be one of Nova's primary challengers. Split that pair and Creighton fans should be feeling pretty good.
Home/Road/Neutral Split: 17/12/2
RTSS Projected Big East Finish: 7th of 10
Average RPI of Non-Conference Opponents: 176.5
Average RPI of All Opponents: 110.266
Power 6 Non-Conference Opponents (5): Arizona State, Indiana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Rutgers
Top-75 Non-Conference Opponents (2): Indiana, Oklahoma
RTSS Projected NCAA Qualifiers (13): Butler (2), Georgetown (2), Indiana, Oklahoma, Providence (2), Texas Southern, Villanova (2), Xavier (2)
Toughest Non-Conference Game: @ Oklahoma (Dec. 19)
Toughest Game: @ Villanova (Feb. 3)
Non-Conference Upset Alert: @ Loyola-Chicago (Dec. 5)
GEORGIA TECH
It's a big year for Jackets coach Brian Gregory, as the coach from the Tom Izzo tree hasn't gotten much done in Atlanta. It won't be easy to gain more traction in the ACC, which figures to battle the B1G neck and neck for the title of best hoops conference. Tech appears to have the toughest non-conference and overall schedule in the 7-team peer group, so there should be ample opportunities for a program-changing win or two. But if there are none of those, Gregory could be gone at season's end.
Home/Road/Neutral Split: 18/11/2
RTSS Projected ACC Finish: 12th of 15
Average RPI of Non-Conference Opponents: 137.416
Average RPI of All Opponents: 97.9
Power 6 Non-Conference Opponents (3): Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee
Top-75 Non-Conference Opponents (5): Arkansas, Georgia, Green Bay, VCU, Wofford
RTSS Projected NCAA Qualifiers (9): Duke, Louisville (2), Miami-Florida, North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame (2), Virginia
Toughest Non-Conference Game: @ Georgia (Dec. 19)
Toughest Game: @ North Carolina (Jan. 2)
Non-Conference Upset Alert: Wofford (Dec. 1)
KANSAS STATE
Poor Bruce Weber. It could get really ugly in Manhattan after a promising start to his K-State tenure. Weber has scheduled accordingly. The Wildcats have 4 Power 6 opponents on their non-conference schedule, however, all but one of those (@ Texas A&M) figure to be winnable games. If nothing else, we might find out how K-State would stack up as a member of the SEC, as all 4 of the Power 6 opponents hail from ESPN's favorite football conference. The first of those comes Nov. 23 vs. Missouri. Beat their former Big XII brethren Tigers and the Wildcats are likely to see national title contender (and African American Studies specialists) North Carolina the next night.
Home/Road/Neutral Split: 17/11/3
RTSS Projected Big XII Finish: 9th of 10
Average RPI of Non-Conference Opponents: 185.75
Average RPI of All Opponents: 105.633
Power 6 Non-Conference Opponents (4): Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Top-75 Non-Conference Opponents (4): Colorado State, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
RTSS Projected NCAA Qualifiers (12): Baylor (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas (2), Oklahoma (2), Texas A&M, UMES, West Virginia (2)
Toughest Non-Conference Game: @ Texas A&M (Dec. 12)
Toughest Game: @ Kansas (Feb. 3)
Non-Conference Upset Alert: Columbia (Nov. 16)
NEBRASKA
Which season is more reflective of the path charismatic Tim Miles' program is headed? The 2013-14 season when the Cornhuskers came out of nowhere to earn a NCAA berth, or the 2014-15 high-expectation but crash-and-burned campaign? We should get an answer this season, when the 'Huskers go back to a more comfortable role of being the hunter instead of the hunted (not that Nebraska is ever really the hunted in hoops).
The Cornhuskers' non-conference schedule is deceptively good, despite ranking 69th of 75 among Power 6 teams in terms of average RPI of opponents (just a shade under 200). Yes, they play 5 opponents who finished 2014-15 with RPIs south of 300, but they more than make up for it with a solid slate of Power 6 and top-75 type foes. Included is a Nov. 17 date @ Villanova as part of the B1G/Big East Dave Gavitt Games. Still scratching my head about that one. ... couldn't the conferences work out a better pairing for Villanova? That matchup makes no sense.
Home/Road/Neutral Split: 18/11/2
RTSS Projected B1G Finish: 12th of 14
Average RPI of Non-Conference Opponents: 199.333
Average RPI of All Opponents: 127.366
Power 6 Non-Conference Opponents (3): Creighton, Miami-Florida, Villanova
Top-75 Non-Conference Opponents (4): Cincinnati, Miami-Florida, Rhode Island, Villanova
RTSS Projected NCAA Qualifiers (13): Cincinnati, Indiana (2), Iowa, Maryland, Miami-Florida, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue (2), Rhode
Island, Villanova, Wisconsin
Toughest Non-Conference Game: @ Villanova (Nov. 17)
Toughest Game: @ Michigan State (Jan. 20)
Non-Conference Upset Alert: Southeastern Louisiana (Nov. 22)
WASHINGTON
We finish with Lorenzo Romar's Huskies, whose schedule I think is most similar to the Gophers. Exactly like the Gophers, U-Dub will play 17 home games, 9 road games, and 4 neutral-site games. Like the U, none of those 9 road games will take place before the start of the conference season. I just can't comprehend why any Power 6 program would choose to play no true road games before its conference season.
The Huskies, again, like the Gophers, will play one Power 6 opponent at home during non-conference play, two overall vs. the Power 6, and two vs. top-75 opponents. The main difference is the Huskies far & away have a higher-end opponent, as they open with Gonzaga at the Thanksgiving feast Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas.
Home/Road/Neutral Split: 17/9/4
RTSS Projected Pac 12 Finish: 10th of 12
Average RPI of Non-Conference Opponents: 161.2
Average RPI of All Opponents: 116.428
Power 6 Non-Conference Opponents (2): Texas, TCU
Top-75 Non-Conference Opponents (2): Gonzaga, Texas
RTSS Projected NCAA Qualifiers (10): Arizona (2), Cal, Gonzaga, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA (2), Utah (2)
Toughest Non-Conference Game: vs. Gonzaga (Nov. 25)
Toughest Game: @ Arizona (Jan. 14)
Non-Conference Upset Alert: UCSB (Dec. 28)
Best to Worst
The Best (based on average RPI of opponents) Non-Conference Schedules from the Power 6 Conferences -- ACC (Duke, 105.916), Big East (Providence, 139.9), B1G (Maryland, 153.666), Big XII (Texas Tech, 132.3), Pac 12 (Stanford, 122), SEC (Vanderbilt, 101.727)
The Middlin' Non-Conference Schedules from the Power 6 Conferences -- ACC (Pitt, 172.307), Big East (Seton Hall, 172.9), B1G (Gophers, 175.9), Big XII (Texas, 148.181), Pac 12 (Washington, 161.2), SEC (Missouri, 157.083)
The Worst Non-Conference Schedules from the Power 6 Conferences -- ACC (Virginia Tech, 212.416), Big East (Marquette, 233.25), B1G (Northwestern, 250.416), Big XII (West Virginia, 196.416), Pac 12 (Utah, 183.818), SEC (LSU, 193.666)
Northwestern & Selection Sunday
If the Wildcats are squarely on the bubble on Selection Sunday, expect their non-conference schedule to keep them out. It's atrocious, save for a game @ DePaul and a neutral-site meeting with North Carolina. Then again, if the Wildcats are even in the conversation, it'll be heady times in Evanston.
Gophers Would Do Well To Finish .500
I'm feeling 9-3 in the non-conference for the Gophers, 5-13 in the B1G, and 1-1 @ the B1G Tournament. If Bert Blyleven's California math is correct, that's a 15-17 campaign for the men in maroon & gold (or black & gray if Marlene Stollings is in charge of the men's uniforms, too).
1st of Many B1G Picks, Preseason Style
1. Michigan State, 2. Maryland, 3. Michigan, 4. Indiana, 5. Iowa, 6. Wisconsin, 7. Purdue, 8. Ohio State, 9. Illinois, 10. Northwestern, 11. Penn State, 12. Nebraska, 13. Gophers, 14. Rutgers. ... The first 7 make the NCAA Tournament, OSU, Illinois, and maybe Northwestern head to the NIT.
Last But Not Least, A Stab At The Sweet 16 (Great Year for the Vs)
Cal, Dayton, Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Valparaiso, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Wichita State
A Special RTSS Shout-Out
To my favorite Jayhawks fan, who earlier this year decided it was a good idea to walk down the aisle with a college basketball/"sportsing" life-time bachelor. Rock Chalk KU, JBear, "may the force be with you" and your Jayhawks, except for those rare instances when our teams meet on the hardwood.
