Road to Selection Sunday: One B1G Team On The Bubble Might Surprise You

Road to Selection Sunday: One B1G Team On The Bubble Might Surprise You
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/487126?referrer_id=388419

THE PENULTIMATE FIELD, OHIO -- With B1G Tournament week upon us, the Road to Selection Sunday's penultimate "Field of 68" projection includes seven teams from the B1G. However, you might be surprised by the one we have sitting most squarely on the bubble.

No, it's not the free-falling Indiana Hoosiers, though Tom Crean's squad most certainly is in jeopardy of not making the tournament. Nor is it Matt Painter's pleasant surprise Purdue Boilermakers, who earned their #4 B1G Tournament seed with a gritty, methodical come-from-behind win over Illinois to close the regular season. To see which B1G team is most riding that NCAA Tournament fence, and currently sitting in our "last 4 in" group, you'll have to read below.

This will be our last projection until the grand finale is revealed in the wee hours of Sunday, March 15, also known as Selection Sunday. In multiple-bid conferences, an asterisk (*) denotes the conference's automatic qualifier or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament. ALL CAPS denotes the team has already earned the automatic bid.

FIELD OF 68 (through March 8)

America East (1): Albany (108)

AAC (3): *SMU (16), Temple (32), Cincinnati (34)

ACC (6): Duke (5), *Virginia (6), North Carolina (13), Louisville (17), Notre Dame (25), NC State (45)

Atlantic Sun (1): NORTH FLORIDA (160)

Atlantic 10 (3): VCU (20), *Davidson (31), Dayton (33)

Big East (6): *Villanova (3), Georgetown (19), Providence (23), Butler (24), Saint John's (35), Xavier (37)

Big Sky (1): Montana (146)

Big South (1): COASTAL CAROLINA (131)

B1G (7): *Wisconsin (4), Maryland (9), Michigan State (28), Iowa (39), Ohio State (42), Purdue (56), Indiana (58)

Big XII (7): *Kansas (2), Baylor (10), Iowa State (12), Oklahoma (14), West Virginia (21), Texas (43), Oklahoma State (46)

Big West (1): UC-Davis (61)

CAA (1): William & Mary (88)

Conference USA (2): Old Dominion (36), *Louisiana Tech (53)

Horizon (1): Valparaiso (59)

Ivy (1): Yale (64)

MAAC (1): Iona (49)

MAC (1): Central Michigan (74)

MEAC (1): North Carolina Central (111)

Missouri Valley (2): *NORTHERN IOWA (11), Wichita State (18)

Mountain West (3): Colorado State (26), San Diego State (27), *Boise State (38)

NEC (1): Saint Francis-NY (154)

OVC (1): BELMONT (107)

Pac 12 (3): *Arizona (7), Utah (15), Oregon (29)

Patriot (1): Lafayette (127)

SEC (5): *Kentucky (1), Arkansas (22), Georgia (40), LSU (50), Ole Miss (51)

Southern (1): Wofford (48)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (44)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (130)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (93)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State (70)

WCC (1): Gonzaga (8)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (114)

____________________________________


Last 4 In: Dayton (33), Old Dominion (36), Ohio State (42), Ole Miss (51)

First 4 Out: BYU (41), UCLA (52), Illinois (62), Miami-Florida (63)

Others Still Under Consideration: Buffalo (30), Tulsa (47), Richmond (54), Texas A&M (55), Stanford (57), Murray State (67), Rhode Island (72)

A little of this and a little of that as the major conferences take center stage for Week 2 of Championship Week. ...

B1G Breakdown of NCAA Hopefuls

In case you're unable to translate the tournament projection above, here's how RTSS sees the B1G's 8 NCAA tourney hopefuls heading to Chicago:

Locks: Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Wisconsin

Just Above/On the Bubble: Illinois (on, but out), Indiana (just above), Ohio State (on, but in), Purdue (just above)

Final 1st Team All-B1G Projections

Sam Dekker, Wisconsin

Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin (Player of Year)

D.J. Newbill, Penn State

D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State

Dez Wells, Maryland

Power 6 Conference Tournament Picks

ACC: #2 Duke

Big East: #1 Villanova

B1G: #1 Wisconsin

Big XII: #3 Oklahoma

Pac 12: #1 Arizona

SEC: #1 Kentucky

Tournament Where Seeds Most Likely Will Mean Nothing

Atlantic 10: There's not a dominant team in the A-10 (1st-year member Davidson is the #1 seed), so I could literally see 8 or 9 different teams winning the A-10. I'm taking Richmond, the #4 seed.

2 Teams You Should Be Cheering For This Week

William & Mary (tonight) and Saint Francis-NY (Tuesday) are the Northwestern of the B1G. Both have been around a long time, and neither school has ever played in the NCAA Tournament. Both have golden opportunities to do so this week. Bill & Mary plays Northeastern for the CAA tonight (6/NBCSN), and Saint Francis-NY hosts Bobby Morris for the NEC title Tuesday night (6/ESPN2). If you're not pulling for the Tribe or Terriers, come on, have some heart.

Projecting NCAA Tournament At-Larges

I've been projecting the NCAA Tournament field for 23 years running. Last season was only the 3rd time I projected all the at-large selections correctly. Below is a year-by-year breakdown, as well as how I've fared vs. Joe Lunardi (ESPN) and Jerry Palm (CBS/BTN) since I starting tracking those guys 5 years ago.


Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2013-14)

1991-92: 33/34

1992-93: 31/34

1993-94: 30/34

1994-95: 30/34

1995-96: 33/34

1996-97: 31/34

1997-98: 30/34

1998-99: 31/34

1999-00: 32/34

2000-01: 34/34 -- perfect --

2001-02: 33/34

2002-03: 33/34

2003-04: 31/34

2004-05: 32/34

2005-06: 31/34

2006-07: 32/34

2007-08: 33/34

2008-09: 34/34 -- perfect --

2009-10: 33/34

2010-11: 35/37

2011-12: 36/37

2012-13: 36/37

2013-14: 36/36 – perfect --

Totals: 750/793 (94.6%)



SS At-Large Projections

2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)

2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)

2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)

2012-13: 36/37 (Kentucky; LaSalle in instead)

2013-14: 36/36 – perfect --

Last 5 Years: 176/181 (97.2%)

Since Advent of Field of 68: 143/147 (97.3%)


Joe Lunardi (ESPN) At-Large Projections

2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)

2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)

2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)

2012-13: 37/37 – perfect --

2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)

Last 5 Years: 175/181 (96.7%)

Since Advent of Field of 68: 142/147 (96.6%)


Jerry Palm (CBS/BTN) At-Large Projections

2009-10: 34/34 -- perfect --

2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)

2011-12: 35/37 (Northwestern/Seton Hall; Iona/NC State in instead)

2012-13: 36/37 (Tennessee; Middle Tennessee in instead)

2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)

Last 5 Years: 175/181 (96.7%)

Since Advent of Field of 68: 141/147 (95.9%)

Current differences with Lunardi & Palm

I have 1 difference with Joe Lunardi. He has BYU in the field, in their place I have Old Dominion.

Jerry Palm and I have 2 differences. He has Illinois and Texas A&M in the field, in their place I have Old Dominion and Temple.

Last 4 In
Lunardi: BYU, Indiana, Temple, Texas
Palm: Illinois, Indiana, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
SS: Dayton, Ohio State, Old Dominion, Ole Miss

First 4 Out
Lunardi: Miami-Florida, Old Dominion, Texas A&M, Tulsa
Palm: BYU, Miami-Florida, Temple, Tulsa
SS: BYU, Illinois, Miami-Florida, UCLA

Ohio St

I've been wondering for a couple of weeks why Ohio St was so firmly in. Only 1 Top 50 W & their road wins were against the dregs of the Big 10.

Ope3 said:

I've been wondering for a couple of weeks why Ohio St was so firmly in. Only 1 Top 50 W & their road wins were against the dregs of the Big 10.

Click to expand...

Awful non-conference schedule (#214) as well. If a team ends up on the bubble and has a non-con SOS is the 200s, that's flirting with danger. And it's not just that it's bad. Teams can have bad non-conference schedules (in the 200s) and get away with it as long as they have a couple decent NC wins. Purdue (#202 NC SOS) is a good example. At least the Boilers have wins over BYU and NC State, both RPI top-50 teams and likely/potential NCAA teams.

OSU lost its only 2 significant non-conference games, Louisville and North Carolina, and their best NC win was a guarantee game vs. #91 High Point. And in the Big Ten they haven't done anything overly impressive other than beat Maryland in Columbus. Other than that, the best thing I can say about the Buckeyes' resume is they don't have any bad losses. Not exactly the calling card you want on Selection Sunday.

Ope3 said:

I've been wondering for a couple of weeks why Ohio St was so firmly in. Only 1 Top 50 W & their road wins were against the dregs of the Big 10.

Click to expand...

So we could potentially be at least one team's spoiler if we to, and knock off, OSU. Among many others, I was torqued off we lost that game at home. I hadn't given up yet and it had "season turn around" written all over it.

It's horrible to be considered the "dregs of the B1G" but if the shoe fits, it must be worn.

SelectionSunday said:

Awful non-conference schedule (#214) as well. If a team ends up on the bubble and has a non-con SOS is the 200s, that's flirting with danger. And it's not just that it's bad. Teams can have bad non-conference schedules (in the 200s) and get away with it as long as they have a couple decent NC wins. Purdue (#202 NC SOS) is a good example. At least the Boilers have wins over BYU and NC State, both RPI top-50 teams and likely/potential NCAA teams.

OSU lost its only 2 significant non-conference games, Louisville and North Carolina, and their best NC win was a guarantee game vs. #91 High Point. And in the Big Ten they haven't done anything overly impressive other than beat Maryland in Columbus. Other than that, the best thing I can say about the Buckeyes' resume is they don't have any bad losses. Not exactly the calling card you want on Selection Sunday.

Click to expand...

They have 22 wins heading into the B1G Tournament....which is what you thought the Gophers needed to be locks. They were 11-7 in the B1G....they are a lock. They have one of the top players in the country....there is no way they don't make the tournament...even if they lose to the Gophers. The Gophers had a better chance to go 8-1 in the B1G at home than Ohio State has of missing the tournament.

ethomasp31 said:

They have 22 wins heading into the B1G Tournament....which is what you thought the Gophers needed to be locks. They were 11-7 in the B1G....they are a lock. They have one of the top players in the country....there is no way they don't make the tournament...even if they lose to the Gophers. The Gophers had a better chance to go 8-1 in the B1G at home than Ohio State has of missing the tournament.

Click to expand...

I hope we get to find out, but I suspect the Gophers will fall to the Buckeyes in Round 2.

SelectionSunday said:

I hope we get to find out, but I suspect the Gophers will fall to the Buckeyes in Round 2.

Click to expand...

Well if they are out....Indiana and Illinois aren't going to make it either. They split with both of those teams and finished two games ahead of them in the conference. Plus they have three more wins overall.

Sorry, SS, I agree with EP.

Ohio State is a lock.

Right now RPI #42 with 7 wins over RPI Top 100 teams. Win over RPI #9 Maryland. No bad losses.

As for non-conference schedule, they had @Louisville and North Carolina on neutral, and how could they know Marquette was gonna stink?

I don't even think they are in the bubble conversation. Solidly in, even with a loss to Minnesota or Rutgers.

No need to apologize. That's why Championship Week is great. Everything comes out in the wash in the next 7 days.

SelectionSunday said:

No need to apologize. That's why Championship Week is great. Everything comes out in the wash in the next 7 days.

Click to expand...

It is the best time of year and nothing is better to me (honestly) than reading your insight here. You're terrific at this stuff.

One quick question....on Old Dominion. How do you get past Monarch losses to RPI #103, #175, #180, & #226? Best wins against RPI #20 and #50? SOS at 138?

Old Dominion

Thanks. I don't put much emphasis on bad losses, as long as there are enough decent wins to go along with 'em. I like ODU's wins over VCU, LSU, Louisiana Tech, record vs. the top 100 (6-2) even though they haven't played a lot of 'em, and their non-con SOS (#36). Wins over Georgia State and William & Mary could look even better if they win their conference tourneys. Among non-power conference resumes, I think their's stacks up.

All that said, my gut feeling at this point is they'll likely need to get to the C-USA finals to hold their spot.

ethomasp31 said:

They have 22 wins heading into the B1G Tournament....which is what you thought the Gophers needed to be locks. They were 11-7 in the B1G....they are a lock. They have one of the top players in the country....there is no way they don't make the tournament...even if they lose to the Gophers.

Click to expand...

Agreed. Of all the teams we could have been matched up against on the second round, though, I think this matchup gives us one of our best chances especially if we can keep Russell at 20 points or less.

cjbfbp said:

Agreed. Of all the teams we could have been matched up against on the second round, though, I think this matchup gives us one of our best chances especially if we can keep Russell at 20 points or less.

Click to expand...

I definitely think we can beat them if we beat Rutgers. I'm just saying they are definitely in the tournament. Their RPI is like 42, while Purdue, Indiana and Illinois are 55, 56 and 61. Both Lunardi and Palm have them at an 8 seed while the other three teams are projected to be seeded 11, 12 or out of the tournament. If we beat them they might fall to a 10 or 11 seed, but I can't see them missing the tournament unless there are A LOT of upsets. Having a star like Russell doesn't hurt their chances either.

If the selection committee looks at a lot of data, Ohio St. has nothing to fear.

If Ohio State loses its first BTT game, their resume will be very similar to ours last year. Actually probably worse than ours last year.

As others have said, the debate is probably academic. I think we very well "could" beat this Ohio State team on a neutral court and I'd hardly consider it much of an upset, but the way this season has gone I don't think we will. (Nor would Rutgers). I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we lost to Rutgers.

Enjoying the discussion about Ohio State. They have a chance to be an interesting case for the committee, certainly more so if they get dumped by the Gophers (or worse, Rutgers). My Big Ten tourney brackets says it's probably going to be a moot point, though. I have the Bucknuts losing to Maryland in the semifinals.

tjgopher said:

Sorry, SS, I agree with EP.

Ohio State is a lock.

Right now RPI #42 with 7 wins over RPI Top 100 teams. Win over RPI #9 Maryland. No bad losses.

As for non-conference schedule, they had @Louisville and North Carolina on neutral, and how could they know Marquette was gonna stink?

I don't even think they are in the bubble conversation. Solidly in, even with a loss to Minnesota or Rutgers.

Click to expand...

The committee doesn't care what you intended to do when you put together your schedule. They care about who you played and beat. That entry on OSU's resume doesn't say Marquette, it just says RPI #156.