How many Wins does it take to make NCAA tourney?

What options get the Gophers in the Tournament?

  • 7-11 Regular Season + 2 BT tourney win

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 8-10 Regular Season + 1 BT tourney win

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    62

dingo

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Looking at the two remaining regular season games plus the Big Ten Tournament, how many victories would it take to get the gophers in the NCAA tournament
 

I voted for 8-10 and 3 tourney wins. But even then, I think it may be tough. However, that would probably mean we would have beaten Wisconsin twice so that would help.
 

5 more wins. I couldn't even dream a scenario up like that though.
 

I voted for 8-10 and 3 tourney wins. But even then, I think it may be tough. However, that would probably mean we would have beaten Wisconsin twice so that would help.
Aside from winning the tourney, I don't see a scenario where they wouldn't need a bunch of "help" in terms of higher bubble teams dropping like rocks.
 

Aside from winning the tourney, I don't see a scenario where they wouldn't need a bunch of "help" in terms of higher bubble teams dropping like rocks.

Jumping ahead to tourney and making some enormous "leaps of faith" an interesting set of games could happen. So they win the next two, win tourney game 1 and then face Wisconsin the second time in 8 days. Beat Wisconsin a second time and confidence is sky high. Anything happens. Pitino slows them down on Saturday to save their legs (well I said Leaps of Faith) and they lose on Sunday because they run out of gas anyway. 22 wins and they get in.
 


Damned if they do, damed if they don't scenario. Beat wiscy at the barn and could end up facing them early in the tourney. Lose to them at the barn and probably have to run the table.
 



22 wins with two over Wisconsin is a good bubble resume, and the scenario includes winning six out of the last seven games which the tourney committe also likes. My scenario is a reach but what's to like is if you have to beat Wisconsin twice, it is only going to happen winning the second time early in the tournament when the legs are strong. Confidence is then high for the game after Wisconsin, and on Sunday when inevitably they would run out of gas.
 

The Gophers would be in if they win their final two regular season games, then win 3 in the B1G tournament. Under such a scenario the Gophers would have 5 quality road/neutral wins (Georgia, Iowa, MSU, 2 in the B1G tourney) and a win over Wisconsin. You can draw your own conclusions as to the likelihood of this happening.
 



The Gophers would be in if they win their final two regular season games, then win 3 in the B1G tournament. Under such a scenario the Gophers would have 5 quality road/neutral wins (Georgia, Iowa, MSU, 2 in the B1G tourney) and a win over Wisconsin. You can draw your own conclusions as to the likelihood of this happening.



.2 X .9 x .5 x .3 x .3 = .009 Roughly 1 in 100 chance. However there is also the chance that they win the BTT tournament independent of the regular season games. That might offer the better shot statistically at the moment.
I'd say they are about 1/50 to make the tournament. Beat Wisky on Thursday and it goes to a 1/10 shot. :)
 

I voted with the majority but I just as easily could have picked the "win the tournament" option. Right now, there likely will be 7 Big Ten teams who will end the season with winning conference records and good to "good enough" overall season records. I'm guessing that #8 will be Illinois with a 9-9 conference record. Right now I think 7 teams are selected. I think 8 teams would be selected if Minnesota wins the Big Ten tournament or Illinois makes a run to the final game (or possibly the semifinals).
 

Aside from winning the tourney, I don't see a scenario where they wouldn't need a bunch of "help" in terms of higher bubble teams dropping like rocks.

Agreed. They would need something like the perfect storm you describe.
 

8-10 + semifinal loss = a chance, but wouldn't put it any higher than 40-60.

8-10 + championship game loss = roughly 75% chance of getting in.

Let's just win the darn thing. We're due. Gophers 1 of only 4 Big Ten schools to play in every Big Ten Tournament without winning the whole ball of wax (also Indiana, Northwestern, Penn State).
 



Would we hold the tie breaker against Michigan? We lost to them....so I don't see how we can get to the 9 seed to play Wisconsin in the second round. If they win their next 4 games...Wisconsin, Penn State, Indiana (or MSU, Iowa or someone like that) and Maryland.....I think they have a shot.
 



A good story in the Washington Post yesterday about the RPI and statisticaly who has made the cut. Losses seems just as signficant as wins. But really, its about who you beat. A few interesting paragraphs.

Since the tournament field expanded to 68 teams in 2011 (37 of the at-large bids until the American Athletic Conference automatic bid reduced that to 36 in 2014), a total of 147 at-large bids have been handed out. Thirteen of them have gone to teams with 13 or more losses (8.8 percent). The 14-loss teams have earned 3.4 percent of those bids. That’s the danger zone in the loss column. In terms of the RPI, just two teams have cracked the field with a rank of 60 or worse. On the other side, 94.5 percent of teams ranked 50th or better have made the tournament one way or another since 2011. Still lingering in the 50s? You’re squarely on the bubble. Since 2011, the only eligible major conference teams in the top 50 of the RPI to miss the cut have been Missouri (No. 49) and Minnesota (No. 50) last season.

In general, you can draw a safe cutline for teams with an RPI above 70, as the worst RPI team to earn at at-large bid in the 68-team era was No. 67 USC in 2011. If Selection Sunday were today, that would eliminate the following notable teams: Miami (Fla.) (RPI 71), Seton Hall (73), Minnesota (76), Kansas State (80), Michigan (81), Alabama (83), Florida (84), Clemson (85) and George Washington (86). As noted above, realistically, only Minnesota, Seton Hall and Miami have any hope of cracking the tournament field with impressive finishes.

Three teams truly precariously perched entering the season’s final week all reside in the Big Ten: Indiana (RPI No. 46), Purdue (59) and Illinois (61). Purdue and Illinois play the last game of the regular season. That’s likely do-or-die for the Illini, but the Boilermakers can finish no worse than 11-7 in the Big Ten. The last time a Big Ten team posted a winning conference record and missed the tournament was Illinois in 2010, but that team sported 15 total losses.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/s...adlines&wpmm=1
 

A good story in the Washington Post yesterday about the RPI and statisticaly who has made the cut. Losses seems just as signficant as wins. But really, its about who you beat. A few interesting paragraphs.

Since the tournament field expanded to 68 teams in 2011 (37 of the at-large bids until the American Athletic Conference automatic bid reduced that to 36 in 2014), a total of 147 at-large bids have been handed out. Thirteen of them have gone to teams with 13 or more losses (8.8 percent). The 14-loss teams have earned 3.4 percent of those bids. That’s the danger zone in the loss column. In terms of the RPI, just two teams have cracked the field with a rank of 60 or worse. On the other side, 94.5 percent of teams ranked 50th or better have made the tournament one way or another since 2011. Still lingering in the 50s? You’re squarely on the bubble. Since 2011, the only eligible major conference teams in the top 50 of the RPI to miss the cut have been Missouri (No. 49) and Minnesota (No. 50) last season.

In general, you can draw a safe cutline for teams with an RPI above 70, as the worst RPI team to earn at at-large bid in the 68-team era was No. 67 USC in 2011. If Selection Sunday were today, that would eliminate the following notable teams: Miami (Fla.) (RPI 71), Seton Hall (73), Minnesota (76), Kansas State (80), Michigan (81), Alabama (83), Florida (84), Clemson (85) and George Washington (86). As noted above, realistically, only Minnesota, Seton Hall and Miami have any hope of cracking the tournament field with impressive finishes.

Three teams truly precariously perched entering the season’s final week all reside in the Big Ten: Indiana (RPI No. 46), Purdue (59) and Illinois (61). Purdue and Illinois play the last game of the regular season. That’s likely do-or-die for the Illini, but the Boilermakers can finish no worse than 11-7 in the Big Ten. The last time a Big Ten team posted a winning conference record and missed the tournament was Illinois in 2010, but that team sported 15 total losses.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/s...adlines&wpmm=1

This is probably the first source I've seen that actually mentions the Gophers in the bubble conversation. Seems like we need to win out and maybe more before we are even considered in the conversation. Link is dead btw.
 

They could win every game up to the B1G championship, and they still wouldn't get in. Need the auto-bid.
 

Anything less than a BT Tournament Championship and it's NIT time.

This season has now come down to the Gophers need a 5 game winning streak to make the NCAA. Either they beat PSU to hold onto the first day bye and win 4 in the BTT, or they lose that game and are forced to win 5 in 5 days. Odds aren't great, but all it takes is winning 5 straight...
 





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