Which top 10 team is most likely to crash & burn in NCAA tourney?

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SelectionSunday

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1. Kentucky
2. Virginia
3. Gonzaga
4. Duke
5. Wisconsin
6. Villanova
7. Arizona
8. Kansas
9. Notre Dame
10. Northern Iowa

There are several good candidates here, but I'll go with what history has taught me. I'll say Notre Dame doesn't make it to the 2nd weekend. Mike Brey has had many good Notre Dame teams with a lot of wins (9 seasons at Notre Dame with 23 wins or more), but he hasn't taken a ND team to the Sweet 16 since 2003 (his only 2nd weekend appearance). If I'm a quality mid-major, I want to see Notre Dame nearby in my part of the bracket.
 

Notre Dame and Kansas imo. The GH consensus will be Gonzaga, even though most on here haven't watched Gonzaga once this season. ;) /BitterGHGonzagaLoyalist
 

MadtownGopher said:
Notre Dame and Kansas imo. The GH consensus will be Gonzaga, even though most on here haven't watched Gonzaga once this season. ;) /BitterGHGonzagaLoyalist
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I'm a big believer in Gonzaga this year, I really liked they way they didn't panic with they came out flat in the first half against St. Mary's and ended up winning that one. Of course, I was also a big believer that year they got a 1 seed and lost to an 8 seed.

My pick is going to be Kentucky, at least partially. I don't see them losing to a 16 or 8 seed (and I guess you could argue making the Sweet 16 isn't crashing and burning), but I think someone in their region will solve them before the Final Four. They are the best team by far this year, but I don't think they are as invincible as advertised.
 


bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I'm a big believer in Gonzaga this year, I really liked they way they didn't panic with they came out flat in the first half against St. Mary's and ended up winning that one. Of course, I was also a big believer that year they got a 1 seed and lost to an 8 seed.
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What I've come to believe about Gonzaga after years of watching them in the NCAA tournament is:

1) they are always a good team capable of winning at least one game;
2) they are almost never a great team capable of advancing at least to the regional final.

When they are not highly rated, they tend to meet or exceed expectations. When they are highly rated, they tend to fall short of expectations.
 


I guess it depends what you mean by "crash and burn." If that means losing their first game, I think all of them are good enough, and will be seeded high enough, that I wouldn't predict that outcome for any of them (although Duke has done that in two of the last three years). Notre Dame has lost its first game in three out of its last four tournament appearances but their opponent should be fairly low seeded this year.

I believe that Notre Dame, Kansas, and Northern Iowa are the least likely to win two games. While I think UNI is pretty good, I expect them to get a 3rd seed at best and #6 has been a troublesome matchup historically for #3. If they get a 4th seed, #4 vs. #5 is pretty even too. Absent a ACC tournament championship, Notre Dame is likely a #3 or #4 as well so the same thing goes for them.
 

I really, really want to smugly say Wisconsin but can't. They could actually win it all this year (shudder).

Gonzaga is my choice. I used to get a channel that showed a lot of Zags games. Some of the road games were in front of about 500 people. They are very much big fish in a really small pond and this hurts them come tourney time.

Kentucky could lay an egg as well but they could win it all.
 

cjbfbp said:
I guess it depends what you mean by "crash and burn."
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Fall well short of expectations. That probably means failing to at least make the Sweet 16, obviously more so for a Kentucky than a UNI.
 

cjbfbp said:
What I've come to believe about Gonzaga after years of watching them in the NCAA tournament is:

1) they are always a good team capable of winning at least one game;
2) they are almost never a great team capable of advancing at least to the regional final.

When they are not highly rated, they tend to meet or exceed expectations. When they are highly rated, they tend to fall short of expectations.
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Can't disagree with the bold. I used to live in Spokane, and have a lot of friends who went to Gonzaga. The old joke I used to say was that come tournament time, regardless of who the favorite is, always bet on the underdog in the Gonzaga game. As I said above though, I think this could be a year when they really make a run, they look good. Maybe I'll have to eat crow come March Madness, but I'm sticking with that prediction.
 



Kansas and the Big 12 are once again vastly overrated. Kansas couldn't advance with Andrew Wiggins last year, and they have a worse team this year.
 

I'd say Kansas or Notre Dame I'm not really a believer in either one of them and think they both could lose early in the NCAA tournament.
 

Unless Justin Anderson makes it back from surgery on his broken finger in time - I'll say Virginia. Next - Kansas.
 

Wisconsin and Virginia are least likely to not meet expectations.

(I see 1-5 as expecting E8 and 6-10 expecting to make S16.



Those teams are susceptible to athletic teams that get hot imo. Virginia especially struggles to score the basketball at times. Meaning a team much worse than them can get hot, hit 6 threes and be right in the game.


If you don't differentiate between expectations for 6-10 and 1-5 I would have to rethink the question. I think we are more likely to see northern Iowa and notre dame in the sweet 16 than wisconsin and Virginia in the elite 8.
 



Not that I think they will...but my hope is to see KY get toasted at any step in the process. Calipari strikes me as a snake oil salesman and I can't stand any team he coaches.
 

Duke. Talent is off the charts, but if they run into a patient, veteran team, it could be curtains.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
The old joke I used to say was that come tournament time, regardless of who the favorite is, always bet on the underdog in the Gonzaga game. As I said above though, I think this could be a year when they really make a run, they look good. Maybe I'll have to eat crow come March Madness, but I'm sticking with that prediction.
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That's pretty fitting. They should have gone further than they did two years ago but Wichita State was a much better team than most people realized that year. I took them too far in the year they had Adam Morrison but that was before I knew what a bust he would be.

You might be right about them. I don't watch them enough to know. It's hard to be that interested in watching them when they play in a conference where they are rarely challenged.
 

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