28 we'll see in NCAA Tournament

SelectionSunday

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These 28 teams are virtual locks for the NCAA tourney barring a huge meltdown in the next 3 weeks.

Later tonight, after all Saturday games go final? A look at the bubble teams.

28 Locks/Virtual Locks
1 Arizona
2 Arkansas
3 Baylor
4 Butler
5 Colorado State
6 Duke
7 Georgetown
8 Gonzaga
9 Indiana
10 Iowa State
11 Kansas
12 Kentucky
13 Louisville
14 Maryland
15 North Carolina
16 Northern Iowa
17 Notre Dame
18 Oklahoma
19 Providence
20 San Diego State
21 SMU
22 Utah
23 Villanova
24 Virginia
25 VCU
26 West Virginia
27 Wichita State
28 Wisconsin
 

Current pecking order of "non-lock" B1G teams

With the assumption (for now) that Wisconsin, Maryland, and Indiana will be in the NCAA tourney, here's my current pecking order for the other NCAA candidates. I use 6 primary factors in addition to their overall record:

1 Overall SOS
2 Non-Conference SOS
3 Road/Neutral record
4 Record vs. RPI top 50
5 Record vs. RPI top 100
6 Best 3 wins by RPI

Through Feb. 21
1 Iowa
2 Michigan State
3 Illinois
4 Purdue
5 Ohio State

A few secondary factors I look at are top-100 non-conference wins, bad losses (RPI 101+), wins vs. auto qualifiers, and record in last 10 games.

Of note at this point? Sparty is the only one of the five without a top-100 non-conference win.

Huge "can't lose" road games today for Ohio State (@ Michigan) and Iowa (@ Nebraska), and obviously the Sparty-Illinois winner takes a gigantic step toward the tournament.
 

Regarding Sparty vs Illini...Go Sparty.

I like Izzo, I don't like Groce.
 

With the assumption (for now) that Wisconsin, Maryland, and Indiana will be in the NCAA tourney, here's my current pecking order for the other NCAA candidates. I use 6 primary factors in addition to their overall record:

1 Overall SOS
2 Non-Conference SOS
3 Road/Neutral record
4 Record vs. RPI top 50
5 Record vs. RPI top 100
6 Best 3 wins by RPI

Through Feb. 21
1 Iowa
2 Michigan State
3 Illinois
4 Purdue
5 Ohio State

A few secondary factors I look at are top-100 non-conference wins, bad losses (RPI 101+), wins vs. auto qualifiers, and record in last 10 games.

Of note at this point? Sparty is the only one of the five without a top-100 non-conference win.

Huge "can't lose" road games today for Ohio State (@ Michigan) and Iowa (@ Nebraska), and obviously the Sparty-Illinois winner takes a gigantic step toward the tournament.

You have OSU behind Illinois, Purdue and Iowa at this point? I think Iowa makes it for sure because they have a easy schedule, but right now OSU has only 7 losses while Illinois, Iowa and Purdue all have 9 or 10. Also Lunadri has OSU as a 7 seed while Iowa and Illinois are 10 and 11 seeds with Purdue on the outside looking in.
 

I am surprised that you have Purdue and OSU so low and IA so high. While IA has an easy schedule, their past history under Fran has been abysmal in late season collapses and they've already shown some signs of that this year in their home loss to the Gophs and the loss at NW. We'll see if they can avoid it and actually make the tourney for once.

On the other hand Purdue has been a big surprise in conference play. They have some stunning OOC losses but they have been solid in the B10. OSU's weakness has been it's away game record but sometimes they look really tough. But this is simply from the perspective of the eye test rather than your numerical analysis.
 


A little revision after comparing the Big Ten's bubble teams with all the others:

1 Iowa
2 Purdue
3 Michigan State
4 Illinois
5 Ohio State

I think Ohio State is closer to the bubble than is generally believed. The Buckeyes have no bad losses, but their resume isn't anything special. If they lose this game to Michigan we're gonna' start hearing that they're a bubble team.

Strange year. The Big Ten could get all 8 in (would be a B1G record), but those 5 are so close to the bubble it could drop down to 5 bids fairly easily. BTT should be a lot of fun.
 

These 28 teams are virtual locks for the NCAA tourney barring a huge meltdown in the next 3 weeks.

Later tonight, after all Saturday games go final? A look at the bubble teams.

28 Locks/Virtual Locks
1 Arizona
2 Arkansas
3 Baylor
4 Butler
5 Colorado State
6 Duke
7 Georgetown
8 Gonzaga
9 Indiana
10 Iowa State
11 Kansas
12 Kentucky
13 Louisville
14 Maryland
15 North Carolina
16 Northern Iowa
17 Notre Dame
18 Oklahoma
19 Providence
20 San Diego State
21 SMU
22 Utah
23 Villanova
24 Virginia
25 VCU
26 West Virginia
27 Wichita State
28 Wisconsin


I would have Wisconsin ranked higher.
 








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