Road to Selection Sunday: Road Trip Split Gets U On Outskirts Of Bubble Conversation

Road to Selection Sunday: Split Of Iowa/Indiana Road Trip Gets Gophers On Outskirts Of Bubble Conversation
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/479600?referrer_id=388419

STILL LURKING, Minn. -- The Minnesota Gophers men's basketball team could have thrust itself directly into the NCAA Tournament bubble discussion with a win in Bloomington, Ind., last night, but alas a 90-71 loss to Indiana means Gopher fans have to settle for being on the outskirts of that conversation, at least for another week.

If you can shake the image out of your head of the Hoosiers making it rain with 18 trifectas from anywhere and everywhere on the court, it's important to remember the Gophers (#76 RPI) accomplished the minimum of what they had to last week, split the Iowa City/Bloomington road trip. There's still major work to be done to be legitimately considered for the Big Dance, but at least now it seems a bit more plausible. That starts Wednesday night at The Barn vs. Northwestern who, ironically, snapped a 10-game losing streak by beating the enigmatic Hawkeyes three days after the Gophers did the same in Iowa City.

For the first time in a long time, the Gophers have cracked Road to Selection Sunday's "bubble board". They'll remain on it as long as they do what they're supposed to this week (beat the Wildcats, lose to Wisconsin), but I suspect it's next week when the rubber truly hits the road for the Gophers. A win in East Lansing -- where the Gophers haven't beaten Sparty since their 1997 Final Four season -- likely will be mandatory. Unless, that is, the Gophers decided to win in Madison on Saturday. ...

Here's the latest RTSS Field of 68 projection. For now I've trimmed down the bubble list quite a bit (so long to struggling teams like George Washington & Seton Hall) and longshots like Oregon State & Tulsa), but teams can always re-enter the fray with a big week. One such team to watch the week is Pitt, currently not in the field. The Panthers (#52 RPI) play @ Virginia and @ Syracuse this week. Win both and I think there's a good chance you'll see the Panthers in our next projection.

Field of 68 Projection (through games played Feb. 16)

America East (1): Albany (120)

American (3): *SMU (24), Temple (31), Cincinnati (35)

ACC (7): *Virginia (3), Duke (5), North Carolina (11), Louisville (14), Notre Dame (27), NC State (49), Miami-Florida (64)

Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast (106)

Atlantic 10 (3): VCU (12), Dayton (30), *Massachusetts (39)

Big East (6): *Villanova (4), Georgetown (21), Butler (22), Providence (23), Xavier (40), Saint John's (41)

Big Sky (1): Eastern Washington (71)

Big South (1): Radford (135)

Big Ten (7): *Wisconsin (6), Maryland (10), Indiana (29), Ohio State (34), Michigan State (36), Illinois (45), Iowa (56)

Big XII (7): *Kansas (1), Iowa State (13), Baylor (16), Oklahoma (17), Oklahoma State (25), West Virginia (28), Texas (33)

Big West (1): UC-Davis (89)

Colonial (1): William & Mary (109)

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech (72)

Horizon (1): Valparaiso (61)

Ivy (1): Harvard (51)

Metro Atlantic (1): Iona (46)

MAC (1): Bowling Green (58)

MEAC (1): NCCU (111)

Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State (15), *Northern Iowa (19)

Mountain West (2): *San Diego State (20), Colorado State (26)

Northeast (1): Saint Francis-NY (177)

Ohio Valley (1): Murray State (69)

Pac 12 (4): *Arizona (7), Utah (9), UCLA (38), Oregon (60)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (150)

SEC (5): *Kentucky (2), Arkansas (18), Georgia (32), Ole Miss (37), LSU (53)

Southern (1): Wofford (43)

Southland (1): Sam Houston State (90)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (163)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (96)

Sun Belt (1): Louisiana-Monroe (115)

West Coast (1): Gonzaga (8)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (143)
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Last 4 In: Xavier (40), NC State (49), Oregon (60), Miami-Florida (64)

First 4 Out: Boise State (42), Texas A&M (44), Stanford (50), Purdue (66)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (6): VCU (12), Wichita State (15), Colorado State (26), Dayton (30), Temple (31), Cincinnati (35)

Others Considered: Pitt (52), Old Dominion (54), BYU (57), GOPHERS (76), Wyoming (79)

Comparisons to Lunardi & Palm

Lunardi and I currently differ on 3 teams. Lunardi has Stanford, Texas A&M, and Tulsa in the field, in their place I have Massachusetts, Miami, and Oregon. Note that I have Massachusetts slotted into the field as the A-10's automatic qualifier (A-10 tiebreaker), Lunardi does not.

Palm and I differ on 2 teams. Palm (a Purdue graduate) has Purdue and Tulsa in the field, in their place I have Massachusetts (same deal as above) and NC State.

Not sure what either one of them sees in Tulsa as an at-large candidate, other than an 8-3 road/neutral record compiled vs. a bunch of crappy opponents. Tulsa not even on my board at this point, though that likely will change if they beat Temple this weekend.

SelectionSunday said:

Lunardi and I currently differ on 3 teams. Lunardi has Stanford, Texas A&M, and Tulsa in the field, in their place I have Massachusetts, Miami, and Oregon. Note that I have Massachusetts slotted into the field as the A-10's automatic qualifier (A-10 tiebreaker), Lunardi does not.

Palm and I differ on 2 teams. Palm (a Purdue graduate) has Purdue and Tulsa in the field, in their place I have Massachusetts (same deal as above) and NC State.

Not sure what either one of them sees in Tulsa as an at-large candidate, other than an 8-3 road/neutral record compiled vs. a bunch of crappy opponents. Tulsa not even on my board at this point, though that likely will change if they beat Temple this weekend.

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Sunday, you think seven Big Ten schools will get in?

6 more likely, 7 wouldn't be a surprise

Section201 said:

Sunday, you think seven Big Ten schools will get in?

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Certainly possible if 3 of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Gophers, and/or Purdue finish strong. Feel pretty comfortable saying that Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, and Wisconsin all will make it.

6 perhaps more likely number, but I won't be surprised if it's 7 so long as Iowa doesn't continue its pratfall. Boy, if the Hawkeyes don't make the tournament with the schedule they have left (Charmin soft), and the work they've already done (win in Chapel Hill, sweep of OSU, win over Maryland), Fran's gonna' get some serious heat.

The problem with the Gophers supposedly being on the "bubble" is that they are the 9th team in the B1G and there is a gap between them and the top 8. Purdue is 9-4 and I think definitely ahead of the Gophers in this discussion. How many teams from the B1G do you think can make the tournament? Personally I think 7 is pushing it.

I think the Gophers have to go 8-10 with at least two wins in the B1G tournament to even have a prayer of making the tournament. I don't even think they would get in then because they would most likely be the 10th seed and wouldn't be beating Wisconsin the the tournament. Maybe they can win at MSU (I don't think they will) but I think they will need to because I don't see them beating Wisconsin.

Personally I think all this talk about them being on the bubble is way premature until they beat MSU or Wisconsin.

ethomasp31 said:

The problem with the Gophers supposedly being on the "bubble" is that they are the 9th team in the B1G and there is a gap between them and the top 8. Purdue is 9-4 and I think definitely ahead of the Gophers in this discussion. How many teams from the B1G do you think can make the tournament? Personally I think 7 is pushing it.

I think the Gophers have to go 8-10 with at least two wins in the B1G tournament to even have a prayer of making the tournament. I don't even think they would get in then because they would most likely be the 10th seed and wouldn't be beating Wisconsin the the tournament. Maybe they can win at MSU (I don't think they will) but I think they will need to because I don't see them beating Wisconsin.

Personally I think all this talk about them being on the bubble is way premature until they beat MSU or Wisconsin.

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All good points. It's more than fair to say they likely need to win 2 of @ Wisconsin/@ Sparty/Wisconsin to have any chance heading to Chicago. No easy task, as you point out. One thing I would add is there's a serious dearth of quality resumes at this point. Opportunity is there if Gophers somehow get to 8-10 prior to Chicago, which I never would have thought possible prior to the start of the season given their (weak) non-conference & (favorable) conference schedules.

In future years, the 5-8 Gophers will be safely in the field of 96.

howeda7 said:

In future years, the 5-8 Gophers will be safely in the field of 96.

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Let's just make it 128.

ethomasp31 said:

How many teams from the B1G do you think can make the tournament? Personally I think 7 is pushing it.

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I don't think 7 is pushing it (I'll be mildly surprised if they don't take 7) but I can't see them among those 7.

SelectionSunday said:

Certainly possible if 3 of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Gophers, and/or Purdue finish strong. Feel pretty comfortable saying that Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, and Wisconsin all will make it.

6 perhaps more likely number, but I won't be surprised if it's 7 so long as Iowa doesn't continue its pratfall. Boy, if the Hawkeyes don't make the tournament with the schedule they have left (Charmin soft), and the work they've already done (win in Chapel Hill, sweep of OSU, win over Maryland), Fran's gonna' get some serious heat.

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At this point, I don't view Iowa as more likely than Purdue and maybe not even more likely than Illinois. Iowa is probably in if they go 4-2 over their last 6 but there's a good chance they won't be if they go 3-3. Despite non-conference struggles, Purdue can get in with a good conference record just like Nebraska did last year. Even if they go 2-3 over their last 5, they have an 11-7 conference record, the same as Nebraska had last year. If RPI was all that mattered, Southern Mississippi would have been in the tournament last year (and another year where they were left out with an RPI in the thirties).

cjbfbp said:

At this point, I don't view Iowa as more likely than Purdue and maybe not even more likely than Illinois. Iowa is probably in if they go 4-2 over their last 6 but there's a good chance they won't be if they go 3-3. Despite non-conference struggles, Purdue can get in with a good conference record just like Nebraska did last year. Even if they go 2-3 over their last 5, they have an 11-7 conference record, the same as Nebraska had last year. If RPI was all that mattered, Southern Mississippi would have been in the tournament last year (and another year where they were left out with an RPI in the thirties).

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Agree. RPI definitely isn't all that matters. Bracket unveiling would be pretty boring if it was.

The bubble talk begins and ends if the Gophers can win 4 out of their last 5 B1G games. It's a tall order but if they want to be in the discussion I see no other way. Finishing 8-10 won't cut it, even with a trip to the conference tournament championship game.

If they can't pull that off, and I recognize what a monumental task that is, then the only other option they have is winning their conference tourney. They got themselves in this predicament and I see no other way.

It's time for this team to put it together and control their destiny.

Anyone who questions SS's rundown has not paid attention to his breakdowns for the past several years.

Pro tip: Mimic SS's knowledge bombs and look like a legend at the watercooler.

Now #78

Gopher RPI goes from 76 to 78 after Monday games.