If our RPI improves from 88 to 47, what do you think our CURRENT #37 BPI will improve to? Top 25 probably. And our Sagarin Rating of #44 and our KenPom Rating of #46 could also move up into the #20-30 range, and Selection Committee members DO look at other rating systems besides the RPI.
We would have gone 8-3 going into the Indiana game in the BTT in our last 11 games. They may not look at "last 10 games" anymore, but Committee members have to get general "impressions" of teams and teams that go on late season runs give people good impressions. Not saying that alone would be enough to get us in, but combined with the # of Top 50 and Top 100 wins we'd end up with and only 1 barely bad loss.
Not sure if our 6 losses by only 2-5 points will be taken into consideration or not? Those close losses might be why our BPI, Ken-Pom and Sagarin Ratings are as high as they are? So just looking at those rating systems would probably cover that base?
Gotta remember we'd only have 1 bad loss, and its just barely a bad loss.
And we'd have a win over Top 10 Wisconsin, a win over Top 30 Georgia, a win over Top 40 Ohio St, a win over Top 40 Iowa & 2 wins over Top 50 Illinois.
Thats possibly 2 Top 25 wins, 6 Top 50 wins & 9 Top 100 wins. Pretty similar to our resume of 2 seasons ago.
MSU is also a Top 50 RPI team. Maryland is #15(if we run into them in the BTT)
And the Selection Committee has also stated that they do NOT look at what conference a team is in when comparing resumes. Letting 2 teams with 8-10 records into the tourney while leaving a 9-9 finisher at home is proof of this. Remember also SMU last year, getting left out of the Dance DESPITE what they did in conf play, because of their weak SOS.
And IF they do look at Conferences as a whole, the B1G is not as down as so many seem to make it out to be. The RPI is such a ridiculously flawed rating system, it makes the B1G look down when in fact, the Ken-Pom and Sagarin and BPI rating systems have the B1G rated much better. Not as good as they were rated last year, but still pretty good.
K-P has 3 B1G teams in the Top 25, 7 in the Top 50 and 11 in the Top 100.
Sag has 3 B1G teams in the Top 25, 9 in the Top 50 and 12 in the Top 100.
BPI has 3 B1G teams in the Top 25, 9 in the Top 50 and 12 in the Top 100.
RPI has 2 B1G teams in the Top 25, 7 in the Top 50 and 11 in the Top 100.
Extreme examples of how the RPI seems to hate the B1G this year are
OSU's ratings in K-S-B ratings being 14-14-12 vs 37 for RPI, for a 23 rating spread between highest of the other 3 and the RPI.
MSU's ratings in K-S-B ratings being 25-24-25 vs 47 for RPI, for a 22 rating spread "
Purd's ratings in K-S-B ratings being 56-35-46 vs 73 for RPI, for a 17 rating spread "
UMn's ratings in K-S-B ratings being 46-44-37 vs 88 for RPI, for a 42 rating spread between highest of the other 3 and the RPI.
PSU's ratings in K-S-B ratings being 81-82-86 vs 91 for RPI, for a 5 rating spread "
Nrth's ratings in K-S-B ratings are 151-131-129 vs 167 RPI, for a 16 rating spread, 38 rating spread from best of the 3 to the RPI.
The spread from Minny's best rating to the RPI is 51. I wouldn't be shocked if that was the largest negative spread of any school in the nation.
The RPI is the 2nd worst of the 4 ratings for Wisc, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan & Nebraska.
That is 11 of the 14 teams. The only teams the RPI loves out of the B1G are Maryland with a 14 rating positive spread between its #15 RPI rating and its next best rating of #29 in the Sagarin, with its worst being #37 in the KenPom, Indiana with a 2 rating positive spread between its #31 RPI and its next best rating of #33 in the Sagarin with its worst being #50 in the KenPom, and Rutgers with a 31 rating positive spread between its #125 RPI rating and its next best of #156 in the Sagarin with its worst being #184 in the KenPom.
The Sagarin probably likes the B1G the most, then the BPI, but in general, the RPI HATES the B1G and of all B1G teams hates the Gophers most of all.
Conclusion. With would it would take to get to #47 in the RPI, I think that definitely gets us in!!! But just in case thats not enough, Georgia could beat Kentucky, Western Kentucky could keep winning, WF could make a little run, and Nebraska needs to pull off a big upset and get back into the Top 100, gets rid of our one bad loss and adds another Top 100 win to our resume. Hell, Rutgers could pull of an upset or two and move up into the Top 100 as well. PSU and Michigan have to hang on in the Top 100 as well. And every win by any other team we've played helps, obviously.