Are the Gophers on the Bubble with 8 B1G wins plus 2 in the BTT?

thesanfordman

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If the Gophers finish with eight Big Ten wins plus two in the Big Ten Tournament, does that put us on the bubble. If we were to win five more conference games, we'd probably have one or two solid wins and no bad losses. Our RPI might still be low, but the deeper rankings calculators like Pomeroy and ESPN's BPI would both have us safely in.

To finish 8-10, we would have to...
- Beat Northwestern and Penn State at home
- Win one of our road games against Iowa and Indiana
- Win one of @Wisconsin, @Michigan State, Wisconsin

It could certainly be done...but would we be on the bubble?
 

Dont think so...I think we would have to be at least 9-9. Does anyone know off hand how many teams in the big ten have made the dance being under .500, if any?
 

Dont think so...I think we would have to be at least 9-9. Does anyone know off hand how many teams in the big ten have made the dance being under .500, if any?

We made it two years ago after going 8-10 in the big ten. The big ten was very good that year though and we had a strong non-conference season. I don't think it happens very often.
 

I don't have a clue. I follow what Selection Sunday has to say.
 

If the Gophers finish with eight Big Ten wins plus two in the Big Ten Tournament, does that put us on the bubble. If we were to win five more conference games, we'd probably have one or two solid wins and no bad losses. Our RPI might still be low, but the deeper rankings calculators like Pomeroy and ESPN's BPI would both have us safely in.

To finish 8-10, we would have to...
- Beat Northwestern and Penn State at home
- Win one of our road games against Iowa and Indiana
- Win one of @Wisconsin, @Michigan State, Wisconsin

It could certainly be done...but would we be on the bubble?

Win twice against Wisconsin and have Georgia win a few more games and we might be talking. but it's really tough to put a sub .500(in conference) BIG school in the dance this year as our conference RPI is not the best.
 


We made it two years ago after going 8-10 in the big ten. The big ten was very good that year though and we had a strong non-conference season. I don't think it happens very often.

Illinois was 8-10 as well. Both teams jumped 9-9 Iowa apparently due to nonconference strength.
 

Big Ten teams under .500 making the NCAA tourney (circa 2000)

Dont think so...I think we would have to be at least 9-9. Does anyone know off hand how many teams in the big ten have made the dance being under .500, if any?

Went back to the 1999-2000 season, and since then only on 4 occasions did a B1G team receive an at-large bid with below .500 conference record:

2000-01: Penn State 7-9 (Sweet 16)
2004-05: Iowa 7-9 (lost in 1st round)
2012-13: Illinois 8-10 (Round of 32), Gophers 8-10 (Round of 32)
 

With the uneven conference schedule getting worse it's conceivable that more sub .500 BIG schools could make it in the future more often, but not this year.
 

Ran it through RPI Wizard. If we beat Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin at home, and Penn State, then beat Illinois, Ohio State, and lose to Indiana in the Big Ten Tourney, our RPI will be 47. Square on the bubble. But if course RPI Wizard is not exact science and their are alot of other factors involved.
 



Went back to the 1999-2000 season, and since then only on 4 occasions did a B1G team receive an at-large bid with below .500 conference record:

2000-01: Penn State 7-9 (Sweet 16)
2004-05: Iowa 7-9 (lost in 1st round)
2012-13: Illinois 8-10 (Round of 32), Gophers 8-10 (Round of 32)

Thanks for the info.

I know it depends on who you beat, but I would not select a team in the big ten this year with sub .500 record. I think it would be hard for me to select any team with a sub .500
In any conference, just doesn't look right to me. GOOD THING I AM NOT ON THE Selection committee.
 

Thanks for the info.

I know it depends on who you beat, but I would not select a team in the big ten this year with sub .500 record. I think it would be hard for me to select any team with a sub .500
In any conference, just doesn't look right to me. GOOD THING I AM NOT ON THE Selection committee.

No one on GopherHole should be on the Selection Committee except for Selection Sunday. His expertise on the Selection Committee is exceeded only by Mark, the Bearded Expert of Knowledge, from Pawn Stars.
 

If our RPI improves from 88 to 47, what do you think our CURRENT #37 BPI will improve to? Top 25 probably. And our Sagarin Rating of #44 and our KenPom Rating of #46 could also move up into the #20-30 range, and Selection Committee members DO look at other rating systems besides the RPI.

We would have gone 8-3 going into the Indiana game in the BTT in our last 11 games. They may not look at "last 10 games" anymore, but Committee members have to get general "impressions" of teams and teams that go on late season runs give people good impressions. Not saying that alone would be enough to get us in, but combined with the # of Top 50 and Top 100 wins we'd end up with and only 1 barely bad loss.

Not sure if our 6 losses by only 2-5 points will be taken into consideration or not? Those close losses might be why our BPI, Ken-Pom and Sagarin Ratings are as high as they are? So just looking at those rating systems would probably cover that base?


Gotta remember we'd only have 1 bad loss, and its just barely a bad loss.

And we'd have a win over Top 10 Wisconsin, a win over Top 30 Georgia, a win over Top 40 Ohio St, a win over Top 40 Iowa & 2 wins over Top 50 Illinois.

Thats possibly 2 Top 25 wins, 6 Top 50 wins & 9 Top 100 wins. Pretty similar to our resume of 2 seasons ago.


MSU is also a Top 50 RPI team. Maryland is #15(if we run into them in the BTT)


And the Selection Committee has also stated that they do NOT look at what conference a team is in when comparing resumes. Letting 2 teams with 8-10 records into the tourney while leaving a 9-9 finisher at home is proof of this. Remember also SMU last year, getting left out of the Dance DESPITE what they did in conf play, because of their weak SOS.


And IF they do look at Conferences as a whole, the B1G is not as down as so many seem to make it out to be. The RPI is such a ridiculously flawed rating system, it makes the B1G look down when in fact, the Ken-Pom and Sagarin and BPI rating systems have the B1G rated much better. Not as good as they were rated last year, but still pretty good.


K-P has 3 B1G teams in the Top 25, 7 in the Top 50 and 11 in the Top 100.
Sag has 3 B1G teams in the Top 25, 9 in the Top 50 and 12 in the Top 100.
BPI has 3 B1G teams in the Top 25, 9 in the Top 50 and 12 in the Top 100.

RPI has 2 B1G teams in the Top 25, 7 in the Top 50 and 11 in the Top 100.

Extreme examples of how the RPI seems to hate the B1G this year are

OSU's ratings in K-S-B ratings being 14-14-12 vs 37 for RPI, for a 23 rating spread between highest of the other 3 and the RPI.
MSU's ratings in K-S-B ratings being 25-24-25 vs 47 for RPI, for a 22 rating spread "
Purd's ratings in K-S-B ratings being 56-35-46 vs 73 for RPI, for a 17 rating spread "
UMn's ratings in K-S-B ratings being 46-44-37 vs 88 for RPI, for a 42 rating spread between highest of the other 3 and the RPI.
PSU's ratings in K-S-B ratings being 81-82-86 vs 91 for RPI, for a 5 rating spread "
Nrth's ratings in K-S-B ratings are 151-131-129 vs 167 RPI, for a 16 rating spread, 38 rating spread from best of the 3 to the RPI.

The spread from Minny's best rating to the RPI is 51. I wouldn't be shocked if that was the largest negative spread of any school in the nation.

The RPI is the 2nd worst of the 4 ratings for Wisc, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan & Nebraska.


That is 11 of the 14 teams. The only teams the RPI loves out of the B1G are Maryland with a 14 rating positive spread between its #15 RPI rating and its next best rating of #29 in the Sagarin, with its worst being #37 in the KenPom, Indiana with a 2 rating positive spread between its #31 RPI and its next best rating of #33 in the Sagarin with its worst being #50 in the KenPom, and Rutgers with a 31 rating positive spread between its #125 RPI rating and its next best of #156 in the Sagarin with its worst being #184 in the KenPom.

The Sagarin probably likes the B1G the most, then the BPI, but in general, the RPI HATES the B1G and of all B1G teams hates the Gophers most of all.



Conclusion. With would it would take to get to #47 in the RPI, I think that definitely gets us in!!! But just in case thats not enough, Georgia could beat Kentucky, Western Kentucky could keep winning, WF could make a little run, and Nebraska needs to pull off a big upset and get back into the Top 100, gets rid of our one bad loss and adds another Top 100 win to our resume. Hell, Rutgers could pull of an upset or two and move up into the Top 100 as well. PSU and Michigan have to hang on in the Top 100 as well. And every win by any other team we've played helps, obviously.
 

Btw, sorry for the lengthy boring stat filled post, been trying to keep those to a minimum. But...

Question for whoever, what is the highest RPI rated team to get in as an at-large team?
 



Btw, sorry for the lengthy boring stat filled post, been trying to keep those to a minimum. But...

Question for whoever, what is the highest RPI rated team to get in as an at-large team?

2006 mizz st RPI #21 highest to not make tourney.
2011 USC RPI #67 lowest to get in.
 

Thanks JoshuaT81.

Another question if its not too much to ask, but what is the best rated Gopher team to get left out of the NCAA tourney since they started allowing more than the Conf Champs get in of course.


Because I know the #6 rated in the AP Gophers got left out way back in the day. Another 7th rated(AP) Gopher squad got left out as well. But more interested in modern times since going to 64 or more teams I guess, and what the best RPI rated Gopher team was that got left out?
 

New Mexico got in with 74 in 1999, Air Force got in with 70 in 2004. Pretty sure the Gophers got in in 1995 with a RPI in the 60s.
 

I think that we would probably have to win three in the BTT to get in with a sub .500 conference record. On the other hand.....it's not impossible to get in with an 8-10 record.
 



New Mexico got in with 74 in 1999, Air Force got in with 70 in 2004. Pretty sure the Gophers got in in 1995 with a RPI in the 60s.

Selection Sunday is right for the old formula for RPI which was done before 2005.
 


The highest I can find without making the tourney for gophers using RPI is #50 in 2013-14 then #71 in both 2002-2003 and 2001-2002. This does not include the vacant years.

I also can not find info before 97 involving gophers RPI.
 


At this point they've no signature win. They crapped the bed against a team like Penn State. 8-10 won't cut it.
 



I am thinking 1993 or 1998 as seasons where alot of Gopher fans thought we got ripped off not getting an invite. Maybe 1996?

In both 93 and 98 seasons we made tourney. Maybe 97-98 season we had a 15-15 record with a 79 rpi
Can't find anything on 92-93 season just that it is vacated
 

Are you sure? Am I getting that old that I can't remember anymore? I thought we played in the NIT in both 93 and and 98. Wasn't 98 the season our top player went down and we made a run in the NIT tourney after just missing the tourney?

99 we made the tourney, lost to Gonzaga hours after you know what happened.

97 we made the FF.

94 we made the tourney and lost in the 1st round.

95 we made the tourney and lost in the 1st round.

90 we made the Elite 8.

91 was a rebuilding season. 92? 93 we made an NIT run, right? 96 we just missed the Big Dance, but didn't do well in the NIT.


All just from memory. Am I losing my memory or is that pretty accurate?!
 

Btw, Georgia and Wake Forest got big wins vs good teams tonight. Every little bit helps!!! Might move Georgia into the Top 25 of the RPI?!
 

Are you sure? Am I getting that old that I can't remember anymore? I thought we played in the NIT in both 93 and and 98. Wasn't 98 the season our top player went down and we made a run in the NIT tourney after just missing the tourney?

99 we made the tourney, lost to Gonzaga hours after you know what happened.

97 we made the FF.

94 we made the tourney and lost in the 1st round.

95 we made the tourney and lost in the 1st round.

90 we made the Elite 8.

91 was a rebuilding season. 92? 93 we made an NIT run, right? 96 we just missed the Big Dance, but didn't do well in the NIT.


All just from memory. Am I losing my memory or is that pretty accurate?!

You are right it is just considered 92-93 and 97-98 season since the season runs into two years....

You are not losing it.
 




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