PiPress: Minnesota one of the unluckiest teams in college basketball

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BleedGopher

BleedGopher

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per Marcus' blog:

It’s fitting for the Gophers that there’s a stat that measures how lucky a team can be.

And it’s no surprise that they rank as one of the unluckiest teams in college basketball this year.

Minnesota has a luck rate of minus-.135, according to Ken Pomeroy’s advanced stats. It’s hard to gauge how bad that is until you see it ranks 343rd out of 351 teams in Division I basketball. Only Florida (344) and Arizona State (347) have a worse luck rate ranking among major conference teams this season.

Pomeroy’s definition for luck rate is the deviation between winning percentage and expectations based on game-by-game efficiency.

http://blogs.twincities.com/gophers...sota-one-unluckiest-teams-college-basketball/

Go Gophers!!
 

Bad luck and trouble...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

I live in Florida and follow the local NCAA sports and I can attest that the Gators have been incredibly unlucky so far this year. They finally got some luck in their first SEC road came and came out on top at South Carolina. The next game they crushed Mississippi State, which isn't saying much, but at least they didn't fall apart down the stretch.

Maybe the Gophers just need a break to get this thing turned around.
 

Oh good. Now we have actual math to prove how unfortunate we are.
 

Isn't there a saying, you make your own luck?

Gophers need to start grabbing games by the ba**s and hanging on to 'em (the games, not their ba**s).
 


SelectionSunday said:
Isn't there a saying, you make your own luck?

Gophers need to start grabbing games by the ba**s and hanging on to 'em (the games, not their ba**s).
Click to expand...

+1 "The harder I work, the luckier I get." When I saw this hang dog team come out looking like they had all lost their girlfriends during the first 25 minutes of the Iowa game, I developed a zero sympathy attitude towards this batch until they start showing some character. Our puny looking coach is the only guy out there that looks like he wants to pick a fight.
 

This is an absurd statistic. It presupposes that outcomes of games just happen based on an offensive and defensive ability which it seems to assume is static over the course of the game. It fails to acknowledge the possibility that some teams for whatever reason (toughness, focus, effort, etc.) are systematically less effective in clutch situations than they are while blowing out a non-conference cupcake or in the first half of a game.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
This is an absurd statistic. It presupposes that outcomes of games just happen based on an offensive and defensive ability which it seems to assume is static over the course of the game. It fails to acknowledge the possibility that some teams for whatever reason (toughness, focus, effort, etc.) are systematically less effective in clutch situations than they are while blowing out a non-conference cupcake or in the first half of a game.
Click to expand...

Sorry, but I don't think you understand the point of this metric.
 

cncmin said:
Sorry, but I don't think you understand the point of this metric.
Click to expand...

I think my main issue is with the name of the metric. It doesn't measure luck, it measures clutch ability. If I'm understanding it right, this metric says that we are losing more games than a team with our offensive and defensive abilities would be expected to. My interpretation of that is that we have the talent to produce on the court, but we find ways to lose games. Whatever the metric is doing, it does not prove that we are "unlucky".
 



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